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Capital Punishment - R_P - Dec 1, 2020 - 10:29pm
 
Strips, cartoons, illustrations - R_P - Dec 1, 2020 - 10:20pm
 
Biden Lies - kurtster - Dec 1, 2020 - 9:28pm
 
2020 Elections - steeler - Dec 1, 2020 - 8:49pm
 
the Todd Rundgren topic - Steely_D - Dec 1, 2020 - 8:35pm
 
Trump - kcar - Dec 1, 2020 - 8:33pm
 
Trump Lies - Steely_D - Dec 1, 2020 - 8:29pm
 
Problems with Mellow Mix Stream - Coaxial - Dec 1, 2020 - 7:31pm
 
Counting with Pictures - ScottN - Dec 1, 2020 - 5:53pm
 
COVID-19 - Ohmsen - Dec 1, 2020 - 5:47pm
 
What Makes You Laugh? - Ohmsen - Dec 1, 2020 - 5:19pm
 
Talk Behind Their Backs Forum - buddy - Dec 1, 2020 - 3:23pm
 
Economix - R_P - Dec 1, 2020 - 2:59pm
 
Now For Something Completely Different - miamizsun - Dec 1, 2020 - 2:52pm
 
The Great Reset - Ohmsen - Dec 1, 2020 - 2:52pm
 
YouTube: Music-Videos - miamizsun - Dec 1, 2020 - 2:37pm
 
Marijuana: Baked News. - westslope - Dec 1, 2020 - 2:35pm
 
Music Geek Scoop!! - KurtfromLaQuinta - Dec 1, 2020 - 1:47pm
 
Pernicious Pious Proclivities Particularized Prodigiously - R_P - Dec 1, 2020 - 1:40pm
 
Physical Graffiti - Ohmsen - Dec 1, 2020 - 12:39pm
 
Documentaries on YT - Ohmsen - Dec 1, 2020 - 12:37pm
 
In My Room - KurtfromLaQuinta - Dec 1, 2020 - 12:06pm
 
Rhythm - Ohmsen - Dec 1, 2020 - 12:04pm
 
Recommended documentaries - Ohmsen - Dec 1, 2020 - 11:53am
 
Would you drive this car for dating with ur girl? - KurtfromLaQuinta - Dec 1, 2020 - 11:50am
 
Gotta Get Your Drink On - Ohmsen - Dec 1, 2020 - 11:01am
 
Annoying stuff. not things that piss you off, just annoyi... - Red_Dragon - Dec 1, 2020 - 10:55am
 
Museum Of Bad Album Covers - Ohmsen - Dec 1, 2020 - 10:23am
 
Republican Lies, Deceit and Hypocrisy - buddy - Dec 1, 2020 - 9:13am
 
2001; A SPACE ODYSSEY - NoEnzLefttoSplit - Dec 1, 2020 - 8:05am
 
Radio Paradise Comments - Coaxial - Dec 1, 2020 - 7:18am
 
Derplahoma Questions and Points of Interest - Red_Dragon - Dec 1, 2020 - 5:48am
 
Today in History - ScottN - Dec 1, 2020 - 4:38am
 
Venus and Mars - R_P - Dec 1, 2020 - 1:57am
 
Live Music - R_P - Nov 30, 2020 - 9:46pm
 
Radio Paradise NFL Pick'em Group - Coaxial - Nov 30, 2020 - 8:40pm
 
Celebrity Face Recognition - ScottFromWyoming - Nov 30, 2020 - 8:10pm
 
Canada - R_P - Nov 30, 2020 - 7:27pm
 
Things You Thought Today - Red_Dragon - Nov 30, 2020 - 5:16pm
 
Protest Songs - rhahl - Nov 30, 2020 - 12:32pm
 
• • • The Once-a-Day • • •  - oldviolin - Nov 30, 2020 - 10:16am
 
Democratic Party - cc_rider - Nov 30, 2020 - 8:24am
 
Need A Thread Killed? - sirdroseph - Nov 30, 2020 - 5:14am
 
Supreme Court Rulings - rhahl - Nov 29, 2020 - 4:47pm
 
Those Lovable Policemen - Red_Dragon - Nov 29, 2020 - 2:10pm
 
Name My Band - haresfur - Nov 29, 2020 - 1:22pm
 
Wow so glad I found you. - BillG - Nov 29, 2020 - 8:28am
 
Questions. - miamizsun - Nov 29, 2020 - 7:12am
 
The Obituary Page - Red_Dragon - Nov 29, 2020 - 7:00am
 
Republican Party - Coaxial - Nov 29, 2020 - 5:47am
 
Poetry Forum - ScottN - Nov 29, 2020 - 4:46am
 
Let them eat kale - westslope - Nov 28, 2020 - 3:47pm
 
Happy Thanksgiving! - Red_Dragon - Nov 28, 2020 - 2:46pm
 
Iran - R_P - Nov 28, 2020 - 2:42pm
 
Cache manager - BillG - Nov 28, 2020 - 1:13pm
 
I like cheese - Ohmsen - Nov 28, 2020 - 2:51am
 
♥ ♥ ♥ Vote For Pie ♥ ♥ ♥ - rhahl - Nov 28, 2020 - 2:07am
 
Photography Forum - Your Own Photos - rhahl - Nov 28, 2020 - 2:00am
 
Vinyl Only Spin List - kurtster - Nov 27, 2020 - 8:07pm
 
Google Home - jarro - Nov 27, 2020 - 1:57pm
 
Jam! - rhahl - Nov 27, 2020 - 11:05am
 
Race in America - R_P - Nov 26, 2020 - 12:04pm
 
• • • BRING OUT YOUR DEAD • • •  - Antigone - Nov 26, 2020 - 11:28am
 
Outstanding Covers - Steely_D - Nov 26, 2020 - 10:22am
 
Next life I'm going to be a backup singer - Steely_D - Nov 26, 2020 - 10:12am
 
Alice's Restaurant - Angiea16 - Nov 26, 2020 - 9:24am
 
RP on Raspberry Pi - BillG - Nov 26, 2020 - 9:07am
 
A motivational quote - oldviolin - Nov 26, 2020 - 7:49am
 
honk if you think manbird and OV are one and the same ent... - oldviolin - Nov 26, 2020 - 7:47am
 
Arlo Guthrie's Alice's Restaurant Massacree - oldviolin - Nov 26, 2020 - 7:09am
 
Unresearched Conspiracy Theories - Ohmsen - Nov 25, 2020 - 3:30pm
 
want to donate but only use the native internet currency ... - Ohmsen - Nov 25, 2020 - 2:35pm
 
The Best Commercials - Manbird - Nov 25, 2020 - 2:07pm
 
Blues Rock - Ohmsen - Nov 25, 2020 - 1:28pm
 
New Study Finds 'Most Narcissistic Generation' on Campuse... - haresfur - Nov 25, 2020 - 1:28pm
 
Index » Radio Paradise/General » General Discussion » COVID-19 Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 175, 176, 177  Next
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rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 2:20pm



 Ohmsen wrote:
The US, I believe takes 40 cycles as their standard for PCR testing, I believe (which delivers potentially more false positives as compared to 37). Although, PCR -tests have only recently been introduced (in lower numbers), compared to the much more insecure antibody tests. Am I right on this?
       
      @miami posted something about CT a few days ago in this thread.

      The issue at 40 isn't that they are "false" positives...they just aren't "dangerous" anymore....aren't shedding virus.  

      Ohmsen

      Ohmsen Avatar

      Location: Valhalla
      Gender: Male


      Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 2:08pm



       Lazy8 wrote:
      Ohmsen wrote:
      Still I dare to question the value of the meta-analysis you named as studies above in comparison to a "real" study, published in Nature, on Nov. 20.
      Let me recap the abstract:
      Stringent COVID-19 control measures were imposed in Wuhan between January 23 and April 8, 2020. Estimates of the prevalence of infection following the release of restrictions could inform post-lockdown pandemic management. Here, we describe a city-wide SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening programme between May 14 and June 1, 2020 in Wuhan. All city residents aged six years or older were eligible and 9,899,828 (92.9%) participated. No new symptomatic cases and 300 asymptomatic cases (detection rate 0.303/10,000, 95% CI 0.270–0.339/10,000) were identified. There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases. 107 of 34,424 previously recovered COVID-19 patients tested positive again (re-positive rate 0.31%, 95% CI 0.423–0.574%). The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan was therefore very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.
      The conclusion is not that asymptomatic spread is rare or that the science is uncertain. The study revealed something that hardly ever happens in these kinds of studies. There was not one documented case. Forget rare. Forget even Fauci’s previous suggestion that asymptomatic transmission exists but not does drive the spread. Replace all that with: never. At least not in this study for 10,000,000.

      A further, more daring conclusion from this study could be, to only test symptomatic cases anymore. A conclusion which I have rarely heard being re-iterated by international politicians, or health-experts, much less the MSM.
      The German health secretary did say this some weeks ago, perhaps more due to logistical shortcomings and strains on the existing testing-infrastructure (labs in this case), but federal politics haven't followed the idea based on science, as sticking to the usual suspects among "experts". You can guess wHO, I'm sure. Might some lobby be involved there? - Nah... nothing to see here, keep walking.

      What was the false positive rate on their test? Testing almost 10 million people will give you a few no matter how good the technology. Are these their asymptomatic patients?


      From the study:
      Details regarding technical methods for sequencing and virus culture were provided in Supplementary note 1. Real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay method was used for the nucleic acid testing. We simultaneously amplified and tested the two target genes: open reading frame 1ab (ORF1ab) and nucleocapsid protein (N) (Supplementary Note 1). A cycle threshold value (Ct-value) less than 37 was defined as a positive result, and no Ct-value or a Ct-value of 40 or more was defined as a negative result. For Ct-values ranging from 37 to 40, the sample was retested. If the retest result remained less than 40 and the amplification curve had obvious peak, the sample was classified as positive; otherwise, it was reported as being negative. These diagnostic criteria were based on China’s official recommendations16. ~ (Source - from the same study). 

      The US, I believe takes 40 cycles as their standard for PCR testing, I believe (which delivers potentially more false positives as compared to 37). Although, PCR -tests have only recently been introduced (in lower numbers), compared to the much more insecure antibody tests. Am I right on this?
          As for a personal anecdote, certainly not to be taken as any "evidence": 
          I know people testing positive (through PCR-testing method) who were asymptomatic and never got sick, in the timely range of 3 seasons, by now. 
          Lazy8

          Lazy8 Avatar

          Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
          Gender: Male


          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 1:43pm

          Ohmsen wrote:
          Lazy8 wrote:
          This article is from June. We've learned a thing or two since then. This article (with links to studies cited) is from late September. For those too lazy to follow the link: best estimates are that symptomatic patients are about twice as likely to spread the disease in any individual case. Asymptomatic patients may be less cautious around others and additional risky behavior can overwhelm the lower probability of infection by having more opportunities for infection.

          Keep in mind that truly asymptomatic patients are quite rare. The really dangerous vectors are presymptomatic patients—people who don't feel sick...yet.
           
          Still I dare to question the value of the meta-analysis you named as studies above in comparison to a "real" study, published in Nature, on Nov. 20.
          Let me recap the abstract:
          Stringent COVID-19 control measures were imposed in Wuhan between January 23 and April 8, 2020. Estimates of the prevalence of infection following the release of restrictions could inform post-lockdown pandemic management. Here, we describe a city-wide SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening programme between May 14 and June 1, 2020 in Wuhan. All city residents aged six years or older were eligible and 9,899,828 (92.9%) participated. No new symptomatic cases and 300 asymptomatic cases (detection rate 0.303/10,000, 95% CI 0.270–0.339/10,000) were identified. There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases. 107 of 34,424 previously recovered COVID-19 patients tested positive again (re-positive rate 0.31%, 95% CI 0.423–0.574%). The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan was therefore very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.
          The conclusion is not that asymptomatic spread is rare or that the science is uncertain. The study revealed something that hardly ever happens in these kinds of studies. There was not one documented case. Forget rare. Forget even Fauci’s previous suggestion that asymptomatic transmission exists but not does drive the spread. Replace all that with: never. At least not in this study for 10,000,000.

          A further, more daring conclusion from this study could be, to only test symptomatic cases anymore. A conclusion which I have rarely heard being re-iterated by international politicians, or health-experts, much less the MSM.
          The German health secretary did say this some weeks ago, perhaps more due to logistical shortcomings and strains on the existing testing-infrastructure (labs in this case), but federal politics haven't followed the idea based on science, as sticking to the usual suspects among "experts". You can guess wHO, I'm sure. Might some lobby be involved there? - Nah... nothing to see here, keep walking.

          What was the false positive rate on their test? Testing almost 10 million people will give you a few no matter how good the technology. Are these their asymptomatic patients?
          haresfur

          haresfur Avatar

          Location: The Golden Triangle
          Gender: Male


          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 1:30pm



           westslope wrote:


           rgio wrote:


           ......
           
          So instead, Philly folks will cross the bridge to NJ for their last-minute booze.  Works for me...

          .......

           

          Good point.  As neighbouring state bars will stay open, ultimately this move has the potential to increase the number of C-19 cases in Philadelphia.  
           
          Oh, there's plenty of covid in PA to go around

          R_P

          R_P Avatar



          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 1:01pm

          US coronavirus hospitalisations at record levels, as states sound the alarm and holidays loom
          westslope

          westslope Avatar

          Location: BC sage brush steppe


          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 12:28pm



           rgio wrote:


           ......
           
          So instead, Philly folks will cross the bridge to NJ for their last-minute booze.  Works for me...

          .......

           

          Good point.  As neighbouring state bars will stay open, ultimately this move has the potential to increase the number of C-19 cases in Philadelphia.  
          Ohmsen

          Ohmsen Avatar

          Location: Valhalla
          Gender: Male


          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 12:13pm



           rgio wrote:


           westslope wrote:
          When I first read the subtitle I thought that Pennsylvania had banned all alcohol sales..... and was preparing myself for civil war.   Not quite.  Interesting all the same.

          Pennsylvania bans booze sales on one of the busiest nights of the year.
          The night before Thanksgiving is usually a busy one in Pennsylvania’s drinking spots, but they will have to stop serving at 5 p.m. this year, the state has ordered.Credit...Michelle V. Agins/The New York Times
           
          So instead, Philly folks will cross the bridge to NJ for their last-minute booze.  Works for me...

          In this area, tonight is normally mayhem at bars and restaurants.  Starting at around noon, folks begin to hang out with their high school and college friends.  Anyone between the ages of 21 and 30 is absolutely out drinking.  There are also plenty of older folks, but this is Philly's Fat Tuesday. 

          It'll be interesting to see how many outdoor gatherings in the area make the news.  The weather is very nice for this time of year...over 60 right now.

           

          Spirogyra ~ Turn Again Lane
           (Album: Burn The Bridges,  The Demo Tapes 1970-1971)

          rgio

          rgio Avatar

          Location: West Jersey
          Gender: Male


          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 12:06pm



           westslope wrote:
          When I first read the subtitle I thought that Pennsylvania had banned all alcohol sales..... and was preparing myself for civil war.   Not quite.  Interesting all the same.

          Pennsylvania bans booze sales on one of the busiest nights of the year.
          The night before Thanksgiving is usually a busy one in Pennsylvania’s drinking spots, but they will have to stop serving at 5 p.m. this year, the state has ordered.Credit...Michelle V. Agins/The New York Times
           
          So instead, Philly folks will cross the bridge to NJ for their last-minute booze.  Works for me...

          In this area, tonight is normally mayhem at bars and restaurants.  Starting at around noon, folks begin to hang out with their high school and college friends.  Anyone between the ages of 21 and 30 is absolutely out drinking.  There are also plenty of older folks, but this is Philly's Fat Tuesday. 

          It'll be interesting to see how many outdoor gatherings in the area make the news.  The weather is very nice for this time of year...over 60 right now.

          R_P

          R_P Avatar



          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 12:01pm

          It’s the Fauci Awards!
          What if public health officials got awards instead of death threats?

          Ohmsen

          Ohmsen Avatar

          Location: Valhalla
          Gender: Male


          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 10:56am

          They're locking them up today
          They're throwing away the key
          I wonder who it'll be tomorrow
          You or me

          westslope

          westslope Avatar

          Location: BC sage brush steppe


          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 9:37am

          When I first read the subtitle I thought that Pennsylvania had banned all alcohol sales..... and was preparing myself for civil war.   Not quite.  Interesting all the same.

          Pennsylvania bans booze sales on one of the busiest nights of the year.


          The night before Thanksgiving is usually a busy one in Pennsylvania’s drinking spots, but they will have to stop serving at 5 p.m. this year, the state has ordered.Credit...Michelle V. Agins/The New York Times
          Ohmsen

          Ohmsen Avatar

          Location: Valhalla
          Gender: Male


          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 9:34am



           Lazy8 wrote:
          This article is from June. We've learned a thing or two since then. This article (with links to studies cited) is from late September. For those too lazy to follow the link: best estimates are that symptomatic patients are about twice as likely to spread the disease in any individual case. Asymptomatic patients may be less cautious around others and additional risky behavior can overwhelm the lower probability of infection by having more opportunities for infection.

          Keep in mind that truly asymptomatic patients are quite rare. The really dangerous vectors are presymptomatic patients—people who don't feel sick...yet.
           
          Still I dare to question the value of the meta-analysis you named as studies above in comparison to a "real" study, published in Nature, on Nov. 20.
          Let me recap the abstract:
          Stringent COVID-19 control measures were imposed in Wuhan between January 23 and April 8, 2020. Estimates of the prevalence of infection following the release of restrictions could inform post-lockdown pandemic management. Here, we describe a city-wide SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening programme between May 14 and June 1, 2020 in Wuhan. All city residents aged six years or older were eligible and 9,899,828 (92.9%) participated. No new symptomatic cases and 300 asymptomatic cases (detection rate 0.303/10,000, 95% CI 0.270–0.339/10,000) were identified. There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases. 107 of 34,424 previously recovered COVID-19 patients tested positive again (re-positive rate 0.31%, 95% CI 0.423–0.574%). The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan was therefore very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.
          The conclusion is not that asymptomatic spread is rare or that the science is uncertain. The study revealed something that hardly ever happens in these kinds of studies. There was not one documented case. Forget rare. Forget even Fauci’s previous suggestion that asymptomatic transmission exists but not does drive the spread. Replace all that with: never. At least not in this study for 10,000,000.

          A further, more daring conclusion from this study could be, to only test symptomatic cases anymore. A conclusion which I have rarely heard being re-iterated by international politicians, or health-experts, much less the MSM.
          The German health secretary did say this some weeks ago, perhaps more due to logistical shortcomings and strains on the existing testing-infrastructure (labs in this case), but federal politics haven't followed the idea based on science, as sticking to the usual suspects among "experts". You can guess wHO, I'm sure. Might some lobby be involved there? - Nah... nothing to see here, keep walking.
          Ohmsen

          Ohmsen Avatar

          Location: Valhalla
          Gender: Male


          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 8:48am



           Lazy8 wrote:

          So the WHO is suddenly credible when it suits your narrative?

          This article is from June. We've learned a thing or two since then. This article (with links to studies cited) is from late September. For those too lazy to follow the link: best estimates are that symptomatic patients are about twice as likely to spread the disease in any individual case. Asymptomatic patients may be less cautious around others and additional risky behavior can overwhelm the lower probability of infection by having more opportunities for infection.

          Keep in mind that truly asymptomatic patients are quite rare. The really dangerous vectors are presymptomatic patients—people who don't feel sick...yet.
           
          I don't intend to spread any form of a"narrative". Instead, I like to question the MSM narratives on multiple fronts, sometimes but certainly not always. 
          What I like is to question some things by occasional posts of mine, and then I mostly appreciate it when people answer in form of discussing things via a thesis-antithesis approach.

          That's great, so thanks for your input above. 


          Lazy8

          Lazy8 Avatar

          Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
          Gender: Male


          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 7:20am

          Ohmsen wrote:

          ——————————
          WHO: Coronavirus patients who don’t show symptoms aren’t driving the spread of the virus

          Coronavirus patients who don’t have any symptoms aren’t driving the spread of the virus, World Health Organization officials said Monday, casting doubt on concerns by some researchers that the virus could be difficult to contain due to asymptomatic infections.

          So the WHO is suddenly credible when it suits your narrative?

          This article is from June. We've learned a thing or two since then. This article (with links to studies cited) is from late September. For those too lazy to follow the link: best estimates are that symptomatic patients are about twice as likely to spread the disease in any individual case. Asymptomatic patients may be less cautious around others and additional risky behavior can overwhelm the lower probability of infection by having more opportunities for infection.

          Keep in mind that truly asymptomatic patients are quite rare. The really dangerous vectors are presymptomatic patients—people who don't feel sick...yet.
          miamizsun

          miamizsun Avatar

          Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
          Gender: Male


          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 5:47am

          another bit of wisdom from prasad


          miamizsun

          miamizsun Avatar

          Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
          Gender: Male


          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 5:28am

           Lazy8 wrote:
          What, you don't have a Medscape login yet? It's free. Do it.

          COVID Thanksgiving Analogies: Drunk Driving or Safe Sex?

          If you got called by a friend or family member for advice about how to stay safe while driving drunk, what would you say to them? Would you talk about wearing a seatbelt? Or might you tell them to throw their keys in the nearest river?

          As the holidays loom and the coronavirus pandemic surges, more and more health professionals are being asked a version of this question: How can I stay safe while still celebrating a large family
          Thanksgiving?

          How should we respond to that? There's a good argument, as pointed out by Vinay Prasad, that demanding abstinence hasn't worked for other health conditions, so why should we expect it to work now?

          No one has ever really asked me for tips about driving drunk, but let's run with the analogy for a bit.

          People do drive drunk. People will drive drunk. Should we be giving advice on how to do it safely? You know: "Hey don't do it; but if you do, be careful."

          I picked this example because we are in a tricky situation when it comesto public health messaging about COVID and Thanksgiving and the other impending holidays. The data are pretty clear.
          We have case rates spiking all over the country, record hospitalizations, and a daily death toll that is already above the second wave in the summer and does not seem to be abating.
           
          so ridicule and shaming is useless or harmful? i agree one hundred percent

          sounds like something monica gandhi would say 

          (from prasad's article)

          The truth of public health is that it is a service industry; it is not meant to imprison, but to empower. The reality is that minimizing risk is also often the prudent strategy. It can lead to the greatest success. An abstinence-only message might mean people defy you, spend more time indoors (to avoid being judged), and end up spreading the virus far more than if you gave them safer options. In an effort to aim for perfect, we end up doing a worse job than had we lowered our ambition from the outset. Just as with sex education, abstinence-only approaches may even backfire. Ideas and strategies to lower the risk is a better path forward.

          Finally, I feel obliged to end this column with an observation about the dangers of social media. The news stories about American's Thanksgiving plans was instant clickbait for doctors; they could not help themselves from tweeting messages admonishing folks to not meet in person. These tweets earned massive likes and retweets. No tweet advising the nuanced idea I describe went viral.

          Americans have admitted that they will meet for Thanksgiving. Scolding and shaming them for wanting this is unlikely to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, though it may earn you likes and retweets. Starting with compassion, and thinking of ways they can meet, but as safely as possible, is the task of real public health. Now is the time to save public health from social media.



          Ohmsen

          Ohmsen Avatar

          Location: Valhalla
          Gender: Male


          Posted: Nov 25, 2020 - 4:03am

          ——————————
          WHO: Coronavirus patients who don’t show symptoms aren’t driving the spread of the virus

          Coronavirus patients who don’t have any symptoms aren’t driving the spread of the virus, World Health Organization officials said Monday, casting doubt on concerns by some researchers that the virus could be difficult to contain due to asymptomatic infections.
          Lazy8

          Lazy8 Avatar

          Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
          Gender: Male


          Posted: Nov 24, 2020 - 11:16pm

          What, you don't have a Medscape login yet? It's free. Do it.

          COVID Thanksgiving Analogies: Drunk Driving or Safe Sex?

          If you got called by a friend or family member for advice about how to stay safe while driving drunk, what would you say to them? Would you talk about wearing a seatbelt? Or might you tell them to throw their keys in the nearest river?

          As the holidays loom and the coronavirus pandemic surges, more and more health professionals are being asked a version of this question: How can I stay safe while still celebrating a large family
          Thanksgiving?

          How should we respond to that? There's a good argument, as pointed out by Vinay Prasad, that demanding abstinence hasn't worked for other health conditions, so why should we expect it to work now?

          No one has ever really asked me for tips about driving drunk, but let's run with the analogy for a bit.

          People do drive drunk. People will drive drunk. Should we be giving advice on how to do it safely? You know: "Hey don't do it; but if you do, be careful."

          I picked this example because we are in a tricky situation when it comesto public health messaging about COVID and Thanksgiving and the other impending holidays. The data are pretty clear.
          We have case rates spiking all over the country, record hospitalizations, and a daily death toll that is already above the second wave in the summer and does not seem to be abating.

          Lazy8

          Lazy8 Avatar

          Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
          Gender: Male


          Posted: Nov 24, 2020 - 9:31pm

          haresfur wrote:
          Do you have sales tax on property? Because selling the same house over and over is great for the real estate industry and the economy.

          Nope, just property and income taxes. Property assessed annually. As the prices ratchet up the tax base rises and assessments for the neighbors rise too.

          And it does feed the whole real estate food chain. State government is doing OK fiscally even with oil prices down. Other than that the main impact on my life is that the starter palaces across the road from me now have occupants into the fall, so I'm anticipating stretching my tow straps a little more often.
          haresfur

          haresfur Avatar

          Location: The Golden Triangle
          Gender: Male


          Posted: Nov 24, 2020 - 4:38pm



           Lazy8 wrote:
          ColdMiser wrote:
          Hopefully a taste of your winter will send them back home with tails between their legs.

          How it usually goes: The family comes up to go skiing or tour Yellowstone. How charming they say, and they pick up a real estate brochure. Look, nice houses for only half a million!

          They buy one, sell the condo in Cali, move up and put the kids in school (oh dear, they don't offer Japanese as an elective and there are no Mindfullness classes), then find out the local job market is mostly landscaping, shoveling snow, and selling real estate. 4WD doesn't mean the Range Rover will start, or that it will magically summon traction on an icy road. Dad goes hunting like he always wanted to and finds out how hard it is to get permission on private land and how crowded anyplace you can drive to gets.

          Dad learns to fly fish. Mom finds out there's no Trader Joe's and you can't make a living teaching yoga. She takes the kids back to gramma's and they get divorced. The house goes on the market and there are two more families just like them to take their place.
           
          Do you have sales tax on property? Because selling the same house over and over is great for the real estate industry and the economy.

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