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Index » Radio Paradise/General » General Discussion » COVID-19 Page: Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 226, 227, 228 ... 276, 277, 278  Next
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ScottFromWyoming

ScottFromWyoming Avatar

Location: Powell
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 2, 2020 - 7:12am



 haresfur wrote:


 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 kurtster wrote:

Very few here take me seriously.  Backscroll.  Only a troll and little else.  Or they do take me seriously and want me gone, either way ... it's the same.

Held in the same regard as Boris and Natasha, for the same reasons.

Oh look, a post was deleted by someone in the PNW.  It was right next to R's post.
 

Here's what you said (it's right down there 
) "Contrary to the proudly expressed opinion of most everyone here, I am taking this very seriously"

Nobody here said that. You're just making random stuff up like you think you're the president or something. It makes no sense why you would preface so many of your statements with things like that. I don't think you even realize you're doing it. 

==============

Anyway, I tossed some chum in the water for the conspiracy theorists among us. 21 million mobile phone accounts closed in China. A lot of them can be explained by the downturn in the economy, but how many represent a Covid death? 
 
Seems really popular to blame the Chinese of a major coverup, and it may well be that they have not released all their information for some reason or other. But consider how screwed the rest of the world would be if China hadn't gathered and shared so much medical and epidemiological information as they were figuring out what the heck was going on and what to do about it. 

 

My personal take is that some is as the article said, explainable as people go/went into isolation and didn't need a work phone. Some is probably due to a normal fluctuation in economic uncertainty, and some is deaths. Partly obscured by the government, but more of them probably just undercounted from the get-go. 21 million out of 1.3billion isn't really a huge number. But it's good for a momentary Hmm.
rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 2, 2020 - 6:36am



 miamizsun wrote:
i've been watching several sources during this event and i think this one is worthy...

campbell is a retired dr/educator and his perspective has been pretty thoughtful

looks like he's on to some favorable news  today

enjoy



 
Leave it to the Brits to turn a 3-minute explanation into a 16-minute 3rd-grade statistics class.  You gotta Luv em!

I think he's correct about the good news holistically, but the problem with these discussions is that the numerator doesn't change, and the math always looks backward.  If 80% of the people on the planet never know they have been infected, then logic is that you and I are 80% likely to have it and never know. 

If we do find out right now that we're positive, we move to the 20% and within that group, the rate of death is much higher than the overall rates (because we've removed the assumed healthy 80%).    The variability you see in the rates country by country comes primarily from testing access.  I know 9 people right now (in the US) who have been exposed, yet only 1 has tested positive.  2 were turned away from the testing site, each with over a week of symptoms.  3 are to date asymptomatic, and 3 likely experienced some very light symptoms (assuming one of those turned away was in fact positive).

It's definitely good news that the disease appears less fatal than current statistics, but if you test positive right now, you have joined a pool of people who have a fatality rate much higher than 1 or 2%.

The lesson:  Don't test positive.  To do that....avoid everyone.

NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 2, 2020 - 6:14am

 miamizsun wrote:
i've been watching several sources during this event and i think this one is worthy...

campbell is a retired dr/educator and his perspective has been pretty thoughtful

looks like he's on to some favorable news  today

enjoy
 
That was great J. And also sounds kind of plausible. The CFR will definitely be way higher than the most optimistic scenario he described at the end because of the time lag (as he acknowledges) but even so it would be down into almost normal territory (compared to flu etc.).

Latest curves from Germany are also encouraging that the lockdown is starting to have an effect.

miamizsun

miamizsun Avatar

Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 2, 2020 - 5:53am

i've been watching several sources during this event and i think this one is worthy...

campbell is a retired dr/educator and his perspective has been pretty thoughtful

looks like he's on to some favorable news  today

enjoy



NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 2, 2020 - 3:49am

 kurtster wrote:
 ... evil machinations of a nefarious foreign government ... 
 
what if all that were true, Kurtster? What difference does it make? Not a f-ing bean. 

The history of mankind is peppered with outbreaks of deadly diseases. It is what nature does. 

And now we have to fight the one we have been served, which is pretty mild in comparison to some of the others in history. Whether the pathogen was shot at us by the Chinese, Mr. Blofeld, an alien race from the Andromeda galaxy or a mightily-pissed-off bat in a food stall in Wuhan doesn't make any difference whatsoever.

Just drop it. Seriously. 

and while I am it.. We do take you as person seriously. That doesn't mean we have to buy into your mindset. We actually all have our own, thank-you very much.
haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 2, 2020 - 3:01am



 kurtster wrote:


I'll think about it and see if I can come up with something better than a few more died than China's government is telling us.

 
Because it is so much easier than talking about what I said

kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 2, 2020 - 1:58am

 kurtster wrote:
Ok, I'll try and play.  I do love a fun trip down the rabbit hole now and then as long as plausible conjecture is allowed with no harm intended if done by accident and not taken too seriously.  I'll think about it and see if I can come up with something better than a few more died than China's government is telling us.
 
How about we start in the middle and work backwards.  First, I haven't read the story, but I heard about it already somewhere else, so i'll run with the headline.  oh, I see that it goes back to Bloomberg on 3 / 23 so that is where i have already heard it when it first came out.

Having paid close attention since the first mention of bat soup, I was following the story, and heard about it going nutz in Wuhan.  All the sudden evacuations of US personnel.  Then the Chinese government went martial law lockdown.  Within two days or so, I heard horror stories about the government welding the doors closed on whole apartment buildings to make sure that no one got out to either infect or get infected.  No one was getting out any sooner than 14 days.  It just sucked if you were home when they welded the doors closed.  I never heard about how they were doing once things got more "under control".  And still haven't.  So you have to decide whether or not the stories about the apartment buildings is true or not.  Considering the government we're talking about, I see it as totally in keeping with their style.

Why would the government weld the doors closed, take such an extreme measure ?  Why because they knew exactly what was going on with the virus and how dangerous it really was.  It was their's after all.  They knew that they had no choice but to take the most extreme measures to make sure it did not get any further than Wuhan within China itself and make it go away real quick or risk losing power, in a bad way.  They kill mass quantities of people on a regular basis, so this type of action is not out of character either.  Rather it is predictable.  10,000 and a million ... the only difference to them is more zeroes.

So to bring this home, it would be most interesting to see the addresses of the accounts and see if they might be concentrated in a bunch of apartments in a certain city, in a certain country and bingo !  You got yer theory.

That's how you start one.

I can also tell you how it gets deconstructed.  The first part is those who take the democrat party line that China is just a warm and fuzzy competitor, that plays fair (Biden).  Bloomberg even said that Xi was not a dictator.  So when preconditioned to that the next thought is that nobody would do something like that to their people, certainly not the Chinese.  Now comes the switch in terms from China and government to Chinese, to make it about the people so that the government part is forgotten about.  That allows it then to become about hate and xenophobia.  Once that is established, well we all know where that goes, right.

Lastly there is the old truth is stranger than fiction thing.  That is the other way to deconstruct a CT.  Easy when the part that comes next is because fiction is made to be believable, is always left unmentioned or shushed should someone try and bring that part up.  It stays that it can't be true because it sounds inconceivable at first glance or hear.

Cherry on top ?  China's government can look the world in the eye and say that their virus numbers are accurate.  Everyone else just starved to death, a wholly separate issue and no one else's concern, an internal problem, mind your own business, go away.  Same as it always goes with their type of government

How did I do ?  All me, all by myself.  just working with the headline and the things I've mentioned above.  No alex jones or anybody else.

obtw, I just saw on Bloomberg how that China's government has gone all in on filling up their strategic oil reserve because the prices are the lowest since 1999. Wednesday, Dated Brent was going for $15.13 bbl.  And our very own Nancy Pelosi has blocked Trump from doing the same here for the USA as part of the CV19 relief bill.  So just whose side is she on anymore ?
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 2, 2020 - 12:47am

 haresfur wrote:


 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 kurtster wrote:

Very few here take me seriously.  Backscroll.  Only a troll and little else.  Or they do take me seriously and want me gone, either way ... it's the same.

Held in the same regard as Boris and Natasha, for the same reasons.

Oh look, a post was deleted by someone in the PNW.  It was right next to R's post.
 

Here's what you said (it's right down there 
) "Contrary to the proudly expressed opinion of most everyone here, I am taking this very seriously"

Nobody here said that. You're just making random stuff up like you think you're the president or something. It makes no sense why you would preface so many of your statements with things like that. I don't think you even realize you're doing it. 

==============

Anyway, I tossed some chum in the water for the conspiracy theorists among us. 21 million mobile phone accounts closed in China. A lot of them can be explained by the downturn in the economy, but how many represent a Covid death? 
 
Seems really popular to blame the Chinese of a major coverup, and it may well be that they have not released all their information for some reason or other. But consider how screwed the rest of the world would be if China hadn't gathered and shared so much medical and epidemiological information as they were figuring out what the heck was going on and what to do about it. 

 
Ok, I'll try and play.  I do love a fun trip down the rabbit hole now and then as long as plausible conjecture is allowed with no harm intended if done by accident and not taken too seriously.  I'll think about it and see if I can come up with something better than a few more died than China's government is telling us.
haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 2, 2020 - 12:26am



 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 kurtster wrote:

Very few here take me seriously.  Backscroll.  Only a troll and little else.  Or they do take me seriously and want me gone, either way ... it's the same.

Held in the same regard as Boris and Natasha, for the same reasons.

Oh look, a post was deleted by someone in the PNW.  It was right next to R's post.
 

Here's what you said (it's right down there 
) "Contrary to the proudly expressed opinion of most everyone here, I am taking this very seriously"

Nobody here said that. You're just making random stuff up like you think you're the president or something. It makes no sense why you would preface so many of your statements with things like that. I don't think you even realize you're doing it. 

==============

Anyway, I tossed some chum in the water for the conspiracy theorists among us. 21 million mobile phone accounts closed in China. A lot of them can be explained by the downturn in the economy, but how many represent a Covid death? 
 
Seems really popular to blame the Chinese of a major coverup, and it may well be that they have not released all their information for some reason or other. But consider how screwed the rest of the world would be if China hadn't gathered and shared so much medical and epidemiological information as they were figuring out what the heck was going on and what to do about it. 

haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 2, 2020 - 12:18am



 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 kcar wrote:


 kurtster wrote:
 
Perhaps it was just an oversight on the part of worldometers or whatever it's called but I didn't see citing of sources when I glimpsed at other tables there. 

You're probably better off using the Johns Hopkins data. I'm a bit biased because I was a grad student there. 

 

"Worldometer's Covid-19 data is trusted and used by Johns Hopkins CSSE, Financial Times, The New York Times, Business Insider, and many others."

Source

They have a few too many Billy Graham ads and quotes from President Trump, but I haven't seen anyone saying they're making things up.
 
Worldometer is listed by Johns Hopkins, but if you look at their supporting information they mostly use primary sources from various governments around the world and supplement with others. Curating and merging data to get a consistent picture is a big challenge. In any case there is nothing wrong with being cautious, kcar.

KarmaKarma

KarmaKarma Avatar



Posted: Apr 1, 2020 - 11:58pm


kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 1, 2020 - 11:45pm

 kcar wrote:


Well done, sir.
One Thanksgiving-time I flew back to Boston for the family meal and was riding in a cab to my brother's place. The cabbie had some local talk radio show on and the host was arguing with a caller about some pointless issue in a joyless unending way as only lifelong Bahstin guys can.

Suddenly the host grumps out "My friend, you doan know Richahd about Chinese food" and hangs up on the guy. I thought, Jesus only in Boston.
 
Thank you.  And a great story.
{#Cheers}
kcar

kcar Avatar



Posted: Apr 1, 2020 - 11:30pm



 kurtster wrote:

 


Well done, sir.


One Thanksgiving-time I flew back to Boston for the family meal and was riding in a cab to my brother's place. The cabbie had some local talk radio show on and the host was arguing with a caller about some pointless issue in a joyless unending way as only lifelong Bahstin guys can.

Suddenly the host grumps out "My friend, you doan know Richahd about Chinese food" and hangs up on the guy. I thought, Jesus only in Boston.
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 1, 2020 - 11:18pm

 kcar wrote:


 kurtster wrote:

You just didn't look hard enough for their credentials or forgot how to. I was told that a good education doesn't mean that you know all the answers, it means that you know how to find the answers.
 
Wah wah wah. Don't ever talk to me about being snotty, Richard

Worldometers should embed its name and/or logo in their work. Not that hard. Just about everyone else does it. 
 
and if you want to get really pissy, I can have my 40 page paper for my BBA  up here in 5 minutes.  Show me your JH Master's Thesis and I'll show you my paper.
kcar

kcar Avatar



Posted: Apr 1, 2020 - 11:03pm



 kurtster wrote:

You just didn't look hard enough for their credentials or forgot how to. I was told that a good education doesn't mean that you know all the answers, it means that you know how to find the answers.
 
Wah wah wah. Don't ever talk to me about being snotty, Richard

Worldometers should embed its name and/or logo in their work. Not that hard. Just about everyone else does it. 
kcar

kcar Avatar



Posted: Apr 1, 2020 - 11:02pm



 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 kcar wrote:


 kurtster wrote:
 
Perhaps it was just an oversight on the part of worldometers or whatever it's called but I didn't see citing of sources when I glimpsed at other tables there. 

You're probably better off using the Johns Hopkins data. I'm a bit biased because I was a grad student there. 

 

"Worldometer's Covid-19 data is trusted and used by Johns Hopkins CSSE, Financial Times, The New York Times, Business Insider, and many others."

Source

They have a few too many Billy Graham ads and quotes from President Trump, but I haven't seen anyone saying they're making things up.
 

Didn't see the ads or quotes but my suspicion was unfounded and I stand corrected as well as newly informed. 

Thank you Scott and Kurt. 



Trusted Authority

Worldometer was voted as one of the best free reference websites by the American Library Association (ALA), the oldest and largest library association in the world.

Worldometer's Covid-19 data is trusted and used by Johns Hopkins CSSE, Financial Times, The New York Times, Business Insider, and many others.

Over the past 15 years, our statistics have been requested by, and provided to: Oxford University Press, Wiley, Pearson, CERN, World Wide Web Consortium (W3C), The Atlantic, BBC, Milton J. Rubenstein Museum of Science & Technology, Science Museum of Virginia, Morgan Stanley, IBM, Hewlett Packard, Dell, Kaspersky, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Amazon Alexa, Google Translate, the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), the U2 concert, and many others.


kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 1, 2020 - 10:59pm

 kcar wrote:


 kurtster wrote:
 
 
I'm not accusing you of skullduggery. I just thought it was strange that the detailed table you provided didn't show a source for the information. I found it stranger that the site from which you apparently got the table didn't provide a source. Some person or persons is putting a lot of effort into formatting and pushing those numbers to the Web; I take that to mean that they're being paid well or they're committed volunteers. Either way, they should know that not providing a source or sources for such (apparently) science-driven data is a near-automatic disqualifier. No one will take you seriously if you don't cite sources. Perhaps it was just an oversight on the part of worldometers or whatever it's called but I didn't see citing of sources when I glimpsed at other tables there. 

You're probably better off using the Johns Hopkins data. I'm a bit biased because I was a grad student there. 

I have to believe that most of the statistical models for Covid-19 are going to show you the same rates of death and recovery. I don't think we can expect a surprising jump in survival rates, barring discovery of an effective medical treatment. I've heard infusions of plasma from survivors has shown some promise. The malaria drug treatment sounds risky. 

I really wish you'd stop the "nobody loves me" stuff. You're just as bad as everyone else when it comes to snarking and accusing people of being liberals with blinders on. You complain a lot more than you realize, I think.  

 
You just didn't look hard enough for their credentials or forgot how to.  I was told that a good education doesn't mean that you know all the answers, it means that you know how to find the answers.  You may want a partial refund on your education.

.

About

Worldometer is run by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers with the goal of making world statistics available in a thought-provoking and time relevant format to a wide audience around the world. It is published by a small and independent digital media company based in the United States. We have no political, governmental, or corporate affiliation.

Trusted Authority

Worldometer was voted as one of the best free reference websites by the American Library Association (ALA), the oldest and largest library association in the world.

Worldometer's Covid-19 data is trusted and used by Johns Hopkins CSSE, Financial TimesThe New York TimesBusiness Insider, and many others.

Over the past 15 years, our statistics have been requested by, and provided to: Oxford University PressWileyPearsonCERNWorld Wide Web Consortium (W3C)The AtlanticBBC, Milton J. Rubenstein Museum of Science & Technology, Science Museum of Virginia, Morgan StanleyIBMHewlett PackardDellKasperskyPricewaterhouseCoopersAmazon AlexaGoogle Translate, the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), the U2 concert, and many others.

Worldometer is cited as a source in over 10,000 published books, in more than 6,000 professional journal articles, and in over 1000 Wikipedia pages.

ScottFromWyoming

ScottFromWyoming Avatar

Location: Powell
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 1, 2020 - 10:57pm



 kcar wrote:


 kurtster wrote:
 
Perhaps it was just an oversight on the part of worldometers or whatever it's called but I didn't see citing of sources when I glimpsed at other tables there. 

You're probably better off using the Johns Hopkins data. I'm a bit biased because I was a grad student there. 

 

"Worldometer's Covid-19 data is trusted and used by Johns Hopkins CSSE, Financial Times, The New York Times, Business Insider, and many others."

Source

They have a few too many Billy Graham ads and quotes from President Trump, but I haven't seen anyone saying they're making things up.
kcar

kcar Avatar



Posted: Apr 1, 2020 - 10:57pm



 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 kurtster wrote:

Very few here take me seriously.  Backscroll.  Only a troll and little else.  Or they do take me seriously and want me gone, either way ... it's the same.

Held in the same regard as Boris and Natasha, for the same reasons.

Oh look, a post was deleted by someone in the PNW.  It was right next to R's post.
 

Here's what you said (it's right down there 
) "Contrary to the proudly expressed opinion of most everyone here, I am taking this very seriously"

Nobody here said that. You're just making random stuff up like you think you're the president or something. It makes no sense why you would preface so many of your statements with things like that. I don't think you even realize you're doing it. 
 
"It makes no sense why you would preface so many of your statements with things like that. I don't think you even realize you're doing it. "


Exactly. Thank you. 

I don't mind your belief in Trump, Kurt. It's more that it seems completely unswerving even in the face of some of his very bad acts and displays of major incompetence (Covid-19 tops the list so far. God forbid something should top that).

I once accused you of being a paid shill for Trump and got seriously harshed on for it by others here. But in all seriousness and with all due respect, you might be able to find employment as an online spokesman/defender of Trump or his campaign. 

kcar

kcar Avatar



Posted: Apr 1, 2020 - 10:50pm



 kurtster wrote:
 
I'm not accusing you of skullduggery. I just thought it was strange that the detailed table you provided didn't show a source for the information. I found it stranger that the site from which you apparently got the table didn't provide a source. Some person or persons is putting a lot of effort into formatting and pushing those numbers to the Web; I take that to mean that they're being paid well or they're committed volunteers. Either way, they should know that not providing a source or sources for such (apparently) science-driven data is a near-automatic disqualifier. No one will take you seriously if you don't cite sources. Perhaps it was just an oversight on the part of worldometers or whatever it's called but I didn't see citing of sources when I glimpsed at other tables there. 

You're probably better off using the Johns Hopkins data. I'm a bit biased because I was a grad student there. 

I have to believe that most of the statistical models for Covid-19 are going to show you the same rates of death and recovery. I don't think we can expect a surprising jump in survival rates, barring discovery of an effective medical treatment. I've heard infusions of plasma from survivors has shown some promise. The malaria drug treatment sounds risky. 

I really wish you'd stop the "nobody loves me" stuff. You're just as bad as everyone else when it comes to snarking and accusing people of being liberals with blinders on. You complain a lot more than you realize, I think.  



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