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Index » Radio Paradise/General » General Discussion » COVID-19 Page: Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 295, 296, 297 ... 395, 396, 397  Next
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NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Gender: Male


Posted: May 25, 2020 - 9:13am

 davidharper wrote:
My guess is the actual infection number is much higher, maybe 10 times as high, as what we're being told. This is likely because most people don't have symptoms and aren't being tested, so they're not in the number. This is good news because it means the actual mortality rate is much lower than we think. Maybe 0.01%. This would be comparable to the flu. Then subtract all those who died as a result of other factors like obesity, heart disease, old age, lung disease, diabetes, etc.  Now covid doesn't look nearly as bad. Also the elevated overall death number could be the result of the lockdown, not the virus. How many are suffering from depression, alcoholism, drug addiction, unemployment, loneliness, all because of this lockdown. How many couldn't get healthcare because of all this?  IMO the lockdown is what's killing us. And I'm no right-winger. I normally despise fox news.
 
All good points and there is some truth in them. Possibly the "hit it early, hit it hard" approach did come at a greater social cost than was necessary.

However, those countries that did pursue a rigorous early response performed way better than those that initially ignored the threat so there can be no discussion about the effectiveness of the lock-down. I agree that the actual case fatality rate is almost certainly inflated. The serology surveys also support that. But it still doesn't equate with seasonal flu. Firstly, because this epidemic is on top of any seasonal flu and secondly, it is novel and hits certain portions of the population really really hard. The rationale behind the lock-down was primarily to prevent health systems from getting overwhelmed by a sudden influx of these at-risk patients.
davidharper



Posted: May 25, 2020 - 9:02am

My guess is the actual infection number is much higher, maybe 10 times as high, as what we're being told. This is likely because most people don't have symptoms and aren't being tested, so they're not in the number. This is good news because it means the actual mortality rate is much lower than we think. Maybe 0.01%. This would be comparable to the flu. Then subtract all those who died as a result of other factors like obesity, heart disease, old age, lung disease, diabetes, etc.  Now covid doesn't look nearly as bad. Also the elevated overall death number could be the result of the lockdown, not the virus. How many are suffering from depression, alcoholism, drug addiction, unemployment, loneliness, all because of this lockdown. How many couldn't get healthcare because of all this?  IMO the lockdown is what's killing us. And I'm no right-winger. I normally despise fox news. And I despise Trump.
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Gender: Male


Posted: May 25, 2020 - 8:44am

 davidharper wrote:
The numbers don't mean anything.  The infection number is about test numbers, not actual infection numbers. The death number is inflated. Most of the deaths were people who died as a result of an underlying condition, not covid 19.  If they had heart disease and diabetes and caught the virus and died, what killed them?  The virus or heart disease and diabetes?  The media is sensationalizing this whole thing. Same drill all day on CNN; hide in your house.  Don't go to the beach. Don't see other people.  Stay away from everyone. Let's just all slit our wrists.
 
I can understand the frustration, but if what you say is true, how do you explain the "excess deaths" number, which IIRC is much higher in every country than the officially reported COVID-19 deaths? Excess deaths excludes what we can normally expect from other causes. 

The whole epidemic was definitely unprecedented in our lifetimes. Then again, our lifetimes are very short in the grand scheme of things.

It also seems strange that the epidemic just seems to be slipping away, at least where I live. Even taking the most optimistic numbers from the serology surveys (that the number of people who have developed antibodies is anything up to 85 times the number of official cases) we would still only have 20% of the population exposed to it, yet now we lift lock-down and it is still not resurging (yet).  

What I suspect from all the material posted here (thanks mostly to Miami) is that there will be no herd immunity nor any vaccine and that the antibodies will wane after a few months allowing reinfection further down the road.. that all points to a second wave of the epidemic come winter at the latest, so we will be back to flattening the curve and some kind of social distancing.  Welcome to the new normal.
davidharper



Posted: May 25, 2020 - 8:33am

The numbers don't mean anything.  The infection number is about test numbers, not actual infection numbers. The death number is inflated. Most of the deaths were people who died as a result of an underlying condition, not covid 19.  If they had heart disease and diabetes and caught the virus and died, what killed them?  The virus or heart disease and diabetes?  The media is sensationalizing this whole thing. Same drill all day on CNN; hide in your house.  Don't go to the beach. Don't see other people.  Stay away from everyone. Let's just all slit our wrists.
Jota

Jota Avatar

Location: Scotland


Posted: May 25, 2020 - 6:23am

An interesting series of observations from experts on the front line here in the UK.  (Bit long winded but incase the link doesn't work for all)

Coronavirus: 'Baffling' observations from the front line

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52760992

When you talk to intensive care doctors across the UK, exhausted after weeks of dealing with the ravages of Covid-19, the phrase that emerges time after time is, "We've never seen anything like this before."

They knew a new disease was coming, and they were expecting resources to be stretched by an unknown respiratory infection which had first appeared in China at the end of last year.

And as the number of cases increased, doctors up and down the UK were reading first-hand accounts from colleagues in China, and then in Italy - in scientific journals and on social media - about the intensity of infection.

"It felt in some ways like we were trying to prepare for the D-Day landings," says Barbara Miles, clinical director of intensive care at Glasgow Royal Infirmary, "with three weeks to get ready and not a great deal of knowledge about what we would be facing".

But what arrived in the UK as winter turned into spring took even the most experienced ICU specialists by surprise.

Most people infected with the coronavirus have only mild symptoms, or sometimes none at all. But in many thousands of patients who fall critically ill, Covid-19 is a disease of alarming complexity.

What follows is a summary, often in their own words, of what doctors have learnt about how Covid-19 attacks the human body, and what they still need to know.

More than viral pneumonia

"I think most clinicians were expecting a respiratory virus that causes pneumonia," says Prof Anthony Gordon, a consultant on the intensive care unit at St Mary's Hospital, Paddington, "something similar to diseases like seasonal flu on a much bigger scale".

But, he says, it became apparent very quickly that it was affecting far more than just people's breathing. Viral pneumonia is a nasty disease - a serious infection of the lungs which causes inflammation as the body fights against it.

But the worst cases of Covid-19 have been something new. "The volume of this is, of course, unprecedented in the era of modern medicine," says Ron Daniels, an intensive care consultant at hospitals
in Birmingham.

"But it's also the type of illness which is so distinct, and the way it's really different from almost every other patient that we've ever seen before."

For the critically ill, this is a disease of such severe inflammation and blood clotting that it attacks multiple organs and causes life-threatening problems that cascade around the body.

"As a doctor it seems at times quite horrific, we have had so many very, very sick patients who are having these profound changes in their body en masse," says Beverley Hunt, a professor of thrombosis - the clotting of the blood - who works in intensive care at a leading London hospital.
"We're all struggling to understand it better and it's absolutely key that we get more research done so we can understand what is going on."

Oxygen

As the virus began to spread more rapidly in the UK throughout March, patients started arriving in hospitals because they were breathless and short of oxygen. But many of the most seriously ill - such as those who were admitted to intensive care - often had problems with other organs, not just their lungs. And their blood was acting in ways that have yet to be fully explained.

"We still don't really know why some patients feel OK to begin with, even though they have incredibly low levels of oxygen in their blood," says Prof Hugh Montgomery, a consultant in critical care
at the Whittington Hospital in north London.

Doctors measure what they call oxygen saturation - the percentage of haemoglobin molecules in the blood that are carrying oxygen. Usually the aim with patients who are unwell is to keep it at 90% or above. But in some Covid-19 patients the levels drop quite a lot further, down to 80% and sometimes considerably lower than that.

Normally that is enough to set serious alarm bells ringing, but a number of patients appeared to be functioning relatively well with remarkably low levels of oxygen. "It may be related to the inflammation which is affecting the blood vessels," says Anthony Gordon. "It's stopping the oxygen getting into the blood, and that's what's leading to the low levels. But the lungs themselves are not so affected in the early stages."


It is one of the many mysteries of Covid-19 on which more research is urgently required. And it's led many doctors to question whether mechanical ventilation, to help patients breathe, is always the right
course of action for this disease. To be connected to a ventilator, a patient has to be rendered unconscious and a tube has to be inserted into their main airway. This process has saved many seriously ill
Covid-19 patients.

But for some, the focus on the lungs may have been the wrong treatment at the wrong time.
"The disease appears to go through different stages," notes Barbara Miles, "and so knowing more about how to use the breathing machines on these patients at different stages of the illness would be something I hope we will learn as time goes on."

Normally, patients who are seriously ill with viral pneumonia have to be on a ventilator for about a week. With Covid-19, a week is often not enough. "We've been seeing people on a ventilator for much longer than that, and we don't quite understand why that is," observes Prof Danny McAuley, an ICU consultant at the Royal Victoria Hospital in Belfast.

"It may be that there is still untreated virus continuing to cause damage. Or it may be that it's a response to the virus, with all the excessive inflammation causing multiple problems in the body." And many of those problems appear to be connected to the blood.


Inflammation and blood clots

Everyone agrees that unprecedented levels of inflammation in the lungs make this a very different disease. When the lining of blood vessels gets inflamed, the blood is more likely to clot. And Covid-19 creates incredibly thick sticky blood in seriously ill patients.

"We find small clots in the small arteries of the lungs but also big clots in the big arteries of the lungs," says Hugh Montgomery. "More than 25% of patients have significant clots and this is a real problem." And the stickier the blood, the bigger the problem.

"You're much more prone to having deep vein thrombosis," explains Beverley Hunt, which usually means a blood clot in your leg. "And pulmonary embolism, when one of the deep vein thromboses travels around the body and blocks the blood supply to the lungs, adding to the problem of the pneumonia."

Blood clots also prevent proper circulation of the blood to other organs like the heart and the brain, making it far more likely that seriously ill Covid-19 patients could suffer a heart attack or a stroke.
And some of the warning signs about blood clotting have astonished doctors. The main protein in the blood which forms blood clots is called fibrinogen.
"Normally,"says Beverley Hunt, "it's somewhere between two and four grams per litre in your blood. It goes up a bit in pregnancy, but what we're getting with Covid is as high as 10 to 14 grams per litre. I've never seen that in all my years as a doctor."

Another measure of the risk of clotting, a blood protein known as D-dimer, has also been off the scale. "In a healthy patient, levels are measured in the tens or hundreds," says Hugh Montgomery. "With Covid it's not been at all unusual to be seeing levels of 60, 70 or 80,000, which is quite unheard of."

.....

But all of these factors add up to Covid-19 being highly unpredictable - it is what specialists call a multisystem disease. That makes it much harder to know how best to treat any individual patient,
and at the moment there is no textbook to tell doctors what to do.
"It's not just the lungs being affected," says Hugh Montgomery, "it's the kidneys, the heart, the liver. We've also seen severely inflamed muscle which is doing a lot of damage." More than 2,000 Covid patients admitted to intensive care have suffered kidney failure.

We've been giving patients dialysis machine support," says Barbara Miles. "But the blood flowing through the machines clots far more readily than we're used to, so we've had to give them increased amounts of blood thinning medication as well."

In a growing number of patients, the brain has also become a serious cause for concern among senior doctors who've been exchanging information on a daily basis for weeks. "We now know that
large numbers of patients are having significant inflammation of the brain," observes Hugh Montgomery.

"The inflammation presents with everything from delirium and confusion, even more than we would normally expect in ICU, to fits and what we call diffuse encephalitis."

"That means some people not waking up properly after being taken off a ventilator." It is a litany of challenges, and doctors are desperate to know exactly why and how all these different parts of the body are being so badly affected.

Lack of oxygen and damaged blood vessels are clearly part of the equation. But evidence is mounting that many organs are being attacked by the virus directly, and it is striking that the most common
underlying conditions involved with Covid-19 are not respiratory problems like asthma.

Instead, they are vascular conditions that affect the veins and the arteries - high blood pressure, diabetes and heart disease, along with associated factors such as gender, obesity and in particular old age.

According to the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, more than 70% of patients admitted to critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland have been male, and more than 70% have been overweight or obese.
More than two thirds of those who have died in intensive care have been over the age of 60.

But that still doesn't entirely explain why so many people infected with this coronavirus have only mild symptoms or even no symptoms at all, while others become dangerously ill very quickly.

"We've yet to fully understand this condition, it is baffling," admits Ron Daniels, pointing out that even in intensive care, patients present in a variety of different ways. "We can have a patient in their 70s who has isolated respiratory failure and just needs a bit of help with a ventilator. And we can have a patient in their 20s who develops multi-organ failure very quickly."
In the absence of solid proof, many theories are being discussed, based on observation of patients, and much research is being done. Many ICU doctors think it is highly likely that genetics plays a
part in some people becoming critically ill with Covid-19, but they can't yet say for sure.

"It could be partly responsible for the disproportionate effect it has had on people of African and Asian origin," says Ron Daniels. "It may also be responsible for the differences in the response of individuals."

It is possible, for example, that the genetic variation that makes you more susceptible to getting high blood pressure or diabetes also makes you more susceptible to the virus.

KurtfromLaQuinta

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Location: Really deep in the heart of South California
Gender: Male


Posted: May 24, 2020 - 9:03pm


rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: May 24, 2020 - 6:34pm



 kurtster wrote:

So what you're, by proxy, predicting is an additional 200 k USA deaths in the next two months.  

It's either fear mongering or settled science.  We'll see soon enough.  My bet is on the former.

 

It's math.  
haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: May 24, 2020 - 5:05pm

So an interesting tidbit from the Financial Times on the number of excess deaths in different countries. You will have to click through and scroll since I can't embed the figure.

Basically the excess deaths in the US is about 52K whereas the estimated Covid-19 deaths are nearly double that (and likely an underestimate). I speculate the difference is due to many fewer people being killed by crime and automobiles. 52 K excess deaths is BAD, particularly if you are in the population dying rather than the population not dying but I was surprised the unintended effects of the shutdown were that significant. Sure there are all sorts of sociological implications for policy makers and world-builders.


Red_Dragon

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Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: May 24, 2020 - 3:47pm

Image may contain: one or more people and people sitting, text that says 'PLAYING THROUGH'

Red_Dragon

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Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: May 24, 2020 - 3:46pm



 haresfur wrote:

You seem to have glossed over the word "could" and the caveats about changes in behaviour and testing. I'll throw a few others into the mix, I think and hope that treatment is improving as we learn more about the disease, like pronation of patients, not using hydroquinone because it increases mortality, increased PPE supplies as production ramps up. And of course there is the important one of the number of of vulnerable individuals listening to the scientists rather that Fox and Trump.

I don't know but I remember how shocked I was when it was suggested that the US fatalities could reach 100-200K. I am so sad that that number is the new normal and doesn't upset many people, especially those who could do more to prevent the worst case scenarios from happening.


 
Yeah, the country that claims to be The Greatest In The World has by far the highest number of cases and deaths. Thanks, Donnie! Yes, his utter incompetence is the reason for that.

BlueHeronDruid

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Location: Заебани сме луѓе


Posted: May 24, 2020 - 3:45pm



 haresfur wrote:

I don't know but I remember how shocked I was when it was suggested that the US fatalities could reach 100-200K. I am so sad that that number is the new normal and doesn't upset many people, especially those who could do more to prevent the worst case scenarios from happening.

 

Kinda reminds me of the returning bodies from the various wars in the Middle East. No fanfare. Keep it under wraps.

And with no public memorials, the impact of these deaths won't reach far. So it's out of our consciousness.

I mean, really. A couple of towers, every single day? And we're not shocked? We're not.

It should be a count on the evening news, every day, like Vietnam.
haresfur

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Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: May 24, 2020 - 2:27pm



 kurtster wrote:

So what you're, by proxy, predicting is an additional 200 k USA deaths in the next two months.  

It's either fear mongering or settled science.  We'll see soon enough.  My bet is on the former.

 
You seem to have glossed over the word "could" and the caveats about changes in behaviour and testing. I'll throw a few others into the mix, I think and hope that treatment is improving as we learn more about the disease, like pronation of patients, not using hydroquinone because it increases mortality, increased PPE supplies as production ramps up. And of course there is the important one of the number of of vulnerable individuals listening to the scientists rather that Fox and Trump.

I don't know but I remember how shocked I was when it was suggested that the US fatalities could reach 100-200K. I am so sad that that number is the new normal and doesn't upset many people, especially those who could do more to prevent the worst case scenarios from happening.

kcar

kcar Avatar



Posted: May 24, 2020 - 1:41pm



 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 kurtster wrote:

It would be hard to label this group.  The best I can come up would be the AOC wing of the body politic or those like minded.
 
She's got newfound powers? Well whoever had the power before wasn't using it. That's how it goes. But complaining about her having powers the voters didn't give her is arguable, but doing so while the president fires people for doing their jobs and installs "acting" administrators with no qualifications? Classic Kurtster.
 

What a shame you can't pin posts here.


Kurt, do you have a model about Covid19 infections and deaths that you'd like to share with us?

And are you OK with Trump tweeting suggestions that Joe Scarborough murdered an assistant  about 20 years ago? It should be clear to even small children that Trump's trying to distract people from the coronavirus and the  tanked economy, but this attack should repulse even diehard supporters like you.
R_P

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Gender: Male


Posted: May 24, 2020 - 11:55am

 kurtster wrote:
So what you're, by proxy, predicting is an additional 200 k USA deaths in the next two months.  

It's either fear mongering or settled science
.  We'll see soon enough.  My bet is on the former.
 
Uh-huh
.
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: May 24, 2020 - 10:54am

 R_P wrote:
We predict that increased mobility following relaxation of social distancing will lead to resurgence of transmission, keeping all else constant. We predict that deaths over the next two-month period could exceed current cumulative deaths by greater than two-fold, if the relationship between mobility and transmission remains unchanged. Our results suggest that factors modulating transmission such as rapid testing, contact tracing and behavioural precautions are crucial to offset the rise of transmission associated with loosening of social distancing.

Overall, we show that while all US states have substantially reduced their reproduction numbers, we find no evidence that any state is approaching herd immunity or that its epidemic is close to over.
 
So what you're, by proxy, predicting is an additional 200 k USA deaths in the next two months.  

It's either fear mongering or settled science.  We'll see soon enough.  My bet is on the former.

R_P

R_P Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: May 24, 2020 - 10:40am

We predict that increased mobility following relaxation of social distancing will lead to resurgence of transmission, keeping all else constant. We predict that deaths over the next two-month period could exceed current cumulative deaths by greater than two-fold, if the relationship between mobility and transmission remains unchanged. Our results suggest that factors modulating transmission such as rapid testing, contact tracing and behavioural precautions are crucial to offset the rise of transmission associated with loosening of social distancing.

Overall, we show that while all US states have substantially reduced their reproduction numbers, we find no evidence that any state is approaching herd immunity or that its epidemic is close to over.

R_P

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Gender: Male


Posted: May 24, 2020 - 9:05am

 kurtster wrote:
It would be hard to label this group.  The best I can come up would be the AOC wing of the body politic or those like minded.
 
She who makes failed angry white males collectively fill their pants/diapers/stoma bags... 
miamizsun

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Posted: May 24, 2020 - 8:23am

kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: May 24, 2020 - 7:47am

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 kurtster wrote:

It would be hard to label this group.  The best I can come up would be the AOC wing of the body politic or those like minded.
 
She's got newfound powers? Well whoever had the power before wasn't using it. That's how it goes. But complaining about her having powers the voters didn't give her is arguable, but doing so while the president fires people for doing their jobs and installs "acting" administrators with no qualifications? Classic Kurtster.
 
Whoooosh ............ 

It is not about AOC as it relates to this.  It is the like minded people who are elected say like the Governor of Michigan and maybe the Mayor of Los Angeles.  These people have great power over their constituents.  It is people who agree with her wish list.  I don't.  Do you ? 

So you're trying to tell me that there are not any elected state level or lower officials who do not share her goals on rearranging / reordering society ? 
ScottFromWyoming

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Location: Powell
Gender: Male


Posted: May 24, 2020 - 6:30am


I'm a big sci-fi fan, but Covid? Too far-fetched

The number of ludicrous thought experiments being conducted on us is unbelievable


Well, this is all really bloody interesting, isn’t? Absolutely shitbiscuitly fascinating. Words, in fact, fail me when I attempt to describe how spafftwuntingly mesmerising every facet of life in the shuntspackled UK has become. I mean, who knew it was possible to run so many thought experiments simultaneously in the real world?

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