The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haâapai (HTHH) volcano erupted 15 January 2022 and injected 146 teragrams of water vapour into the Earth's stratosphere, equal to 10% of the water supply already present in that atmospheric layer. This is known to have a warming effect and some scientists are estimating an increase in surface temperatures of 1.5C over the coming decade. Compared to other volcanoes, relatively little SO2 and ash were emitted.
Yes, this is recognized as a possible contributing factor to the current extreme. Warm(er) air also holds more moisture. From a link a few posts back regarding SO2 and shipping:
Rather, there are a number of other factors likely contributing to current record-warm ocean temperatures. These include the end of a moderate La Niña event at the start of the year and a developing El Niño, a shift which tends to result in higher global temperatures.
Stratospheric water vapour from the 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haâapai volcano and an unusual absence of dust from the Sahara Desert over the tropical North Atlantic may also be helping drive the ocean heatwave.
In summary, the primary driver of climate change remains CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. The shift to low-sulphur marine fuel triggered by clean air regulations may increase the warming we experience in the near future, but it will not change our long-term trajectory of around 2.6C of warming by the end of the century.
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haâapai (HTHH) volcano erupted 15 January 2022 and injected 146 teragrams of water vapour into the Earth's stratosphere, equal to 10% of the water supply already present in that atmospheric layer. This is known to have a warming effect and some scientists are estimating an increase in surface temperatures of 1.5C over the coming decade. Compared to other volcanoes, relatively little SO2 and ash were emitted.
This natural phenomena could explain current heat records. This is not my field; some of the papers referred to are gated.
Volcanic eruptions like Pinatubo blast SO2 into the stratosphere creating a cooling climate shroud for 1-2 years.
But, Hunga Tonga had only 2% of the SO2 as Pinatubo but a gargantuan amount of water vapor, which is well known to WARM the Earth. The question is how much?
westslope continues: None of this refutes the anthropogenic climate disruption hypothesis but it does provide an alternative explanation for some of the weather recently observed.
The costs of adaptation
Second, this is what adaptation to climate change looks like. Contrary to how it is typically protrayed by climate dismissives, adaptation is not free. These people are paying $50 per month for the gym membership that is an inferior replacement for something they used to get for free: an environment cool enough to walk in.
So these people are worse off financially and not getting as good of an experience as they used to. And theyâre the lucky ones â they have the opportunity and resources to do this.
Thereâs also the non-monetary costs of adaptation. When itâs too hot to go outside during the day, you are a prisoner of air conditioning instead of going outside and getting fresh air and exercise. Weâve lost something valuable but difficult to quantify.
Multiply by 1,000,000
This is admittedly a small example; to get the full cost, you have to multiply this by the millions of ways that climate change is costing people. Theyâre not just spending money on the gym, theyâre also running their air conditioners more, watering the lawn more, spending more on insurance, and generally spending money on things they used to get for free from a livable climate. Economists have looked at this and the total of the impacts is significant.
One tiny impact
Let me give you an example of a tiny impact that I just heard about. My wife told me about a new group of members at her gym: active 70-ish-year-olds who used to go on walks around their neighborhood. Due to the unbearable heat in Texas, though, they joined a gym and now walk indoors on treadmills. This story embodies several aspects of climate impacts that everyone should understand.
First, this is an example of non-linear climate impacts. Although temperatures have been rising gradually over the last century, it was only recently that they crossed a critical threshold that made outdoor walks literally unbearable for these people. (...)
Much of the concern about climate change is around the idea of âthe big impact,â a single, colossal disaster that dramatically impacts everyone on the planet, much like the scenario depicted in the movie The Day After Tomorrow.
While such an event could happen, itâs not the most likely way we will be impacted by our changing climate. A more plausible scenario involves âdeath by a thousand cuts,â with numerous smaller impacts occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Each impact on its own might be manageable, but collectively they could sum up to a significant problem.
One tiny impact
Let me give you an example of a tiny impact that I just heard about. My wife told me about a new group of members at her gym: active 70-ish-year-olds who used to go on walks around their neighborhood. Due to the unbearable heat in Texas, though, they joined a gym and now walk indoors on treadmills. This story embodies several aspects of climate impacts that everyone should understand.
First, this is an example of non-linear climate impacts. Although temperatures have been rising gradually over the last century, it was only recently that they crossed a critical threshold that made outdoor walks literally unbearable for these people. (...)
Long Island beaches were in the high 70s this week...has to be at/near record for this or anytime of year.
Almost 100 in Florida water today. Unbelievable.
The weather man said starting next year
we'll be missing for the cooler weather (like today).
The hot, steamy shit is really going to hit the fan.
The biggest concern for coral isnât just the current sea surface temperatures in the Florida Keys, even though they are the hottest on record. The daily average surface temperature off the Keys on Monday was just over 90 degrees Fahrenheit, or 32.4 Celsius, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The real worry, scientists say, is that itâs only July. Corals typically experience the most heat stress in August and September.
âWeâre entering uncharted territories,â Derek Manzello, an ecologist and the coordinator of NOAAâs Coral Reef Watch program, said.
Coral reefs are natural wonders that support myriad species and blunt damage from storms. In the United States, reefs generate economic benefits to the tune of $3.4 billion annually for fisheries, tourism and coastal protection, according to NOAA.
But oceans have absorbed some 90 percent of the additional heat caused by humans as we burn fossil fuels and destroy forests. When sea temperatures rise too high, corals bleach, expelling the algae they need for sustenance. If waters donât cool quickly enough, or if bleaching events happen in close succession, the corals die. For decades, scientists have been warning that climate change is an existential threat to coral reefs. Already, the world has lost a huge proportion of its coral reefs, perhaps half since 1950.
Usually, in science, facts are data from which tentative conclusions can be drawn (based on probabilities). Cf. scientific modelling.
Clear. - What I don't like as much are the media delivering modeled probabilities as hard facts to us all. - Much less through social media claims, not backed by any evidence. - Just as when I look at the (modeled) weather-forecast for the next couple days, it usually goes wrong. Granted, I live by the sea and the weather changes quickly there...
