[ ]   [ ]   [ ]                        [ ]      [ ]   [ ]

Little known information... maybe even facts - thisbody - Jun 23, 2024 - 4:22pm
 
NY Times Strands - geoff_morphini - Jun 23, 2024 - 4:06pm
 
How do you create optimism? - thisbody - Jun 23, 2024 - 4:01pm
 
NYTimes Connections - ptooey - Jun 23, 2024 - 3:51pm
 
favorite love songs - thisbody - Jun 23, 2024 - 3:35pm
 
Things You Thought Today - thisbody - Jun 23, 2024 - 3:25pm
 
Breaking News - thisbody - Jun 23, 2024 - 2:42pm
 
Prog Rockers Anonymous - thisbody - Jun 23, 2024 - 2:24pm
 
The Dragons' Roost - thisbody - Jun 23, 2024 - 2:01pm
 
Dumb Laws - thisbody - Jun 23, 2024 - 1:51pm
 
Israel - thisbody - Jun 23, 2024 - 1:38pm
 
Joe Biden - R_P - Jun 23, 2024 - 11:42am
 
Radio Paradise Comments - GeneP59 - Jun 23, 2024 - 10:24am
 
Wordle - daily game - maryte - Jun 23, 2024 - 9:50am
 
BEATLES Make History AGAIN!! - thisbody - Jun 23, 2024 - 9:12am
 
TV shows you watch - R_P - Jun 23, 2024 - 8:57am
 
Today in History - Red_Dragon - Jun 23, 2024 - 8:36am
 
Bug Reports & Feature Requests - Red_Dragon - Jun 23, 2024 - 8:27am
 
Congress - R_P - Jun 22, 2024 - 5:53pm
 
Song of the Day - thisbody - Jun 22, 2024 - 3:32pm
 
What do you snack on? - thisbody - Jun 22, 2024 - 3:20pm
 
Photography Forum - Your Own Photos - Alchemist - Jun 22, 2024 - 2:44pm
 
What did you have for dinner? - triskele - Jun 22, 2024 - 2:31pm
 
Jam! (why should a song stop) - thisbody - Jun 22, 2024 - 1:53pm
 
June 2024 Photo Theme - Eyes - fractalv - Jun 22, 2024 - 1:46pm
 
Things I Saw Today... - R_P - Jun 22, 2024 - 1:38pm
 
Trump - kcar - Jun 22, 2024 - 12:41pm
 
Some bands or songs are recurring too much in Rock channe... - mlebihan29 - Jun 22, 2024 - 9:26am
 
Fox Spews - R_P - Jun 22, 2024 - 9:19am
 
Sonos - thatslongformud - Jun 22, 2024 - 6:18am
 
Name My Band - DaveInSaoMiguel - Jun 22, 2024 - 4:44am
 
• • • The Once-a-Day • • •  - thisbody - Jun 21, 2024 - 4:26pm
 
Too much classic rock lately? - thisbody - Jun 21, 2024 - 4:01pm
 
Girls Just Want to Have Fun - oldviolin - Jun 21, 2024 - 2:22pm
 
Musky Mythology - R_P - Jun 21, 2024 - 12:26pm
 
2024 Elections! - R_P - Jun 21, 2024 - 12:20pm
 
Electronic Music - Manbird - Jun 21, 2024 - 12:14pm
 
LeftWingNutZ - Steely_D - Jun 21, 2024 - 8:07am
 
The Obituary Page - ColdMiser - Jun 21, 2024 - 7:56am
 
RightWingNutZ - Red_Dragon - Jun 20, 2024 - 6:39pm
 
Basketball - GeneP59 - Jun 20, 2024 - 4:53pm
 
Gotta Get Your Drink On - Antigone - Jun 20, 2024 - 4:04pm
 
USA! USA! USA! - R_P - Jun 20, 2024 - 2:10pm
 
Shall We Dance? - Steely_D - Jun 20, 2024 - 1:18pm
 
Predictions - oldviolin - Jun 20, 2024 - 11:18am
 
Lyrics That Remind You of Someone - oldviolin - Jun 20, 2024 - 11:10am
 
Ukraine - R_P - Jun 20, 2024 - 10:41am
 
Just Wrong - ColdMiser - Jun 20, 2024 - 7:43am
 
Pink Floyd Set? - Coaxial - Jun 20, 2024 - 5:46am
 
Whatever happened to Taco Wagon? - Coaxial - Jun 19, 2024 - 6:14pm
 
Outstanding Covers - pope183 - Jun 19, 2024 - 2:50pm
 
Climate Change - R_P - Jun 19, 2024 - 12:34pm
 
SCOTUS - ColdMiser - Jun 19, 2024 - 7:15am
 
20+ year listeners? - islander - Jun 18, 2024 - 7:41pm
 
Baseball, anyone? - rgio - Jun 18, 2024 - 5:02pm
 
Other Medical Stuff - miamizsun - Jun 18, 2024 - 2:35pm
 
Hello from Greece! - miamizsun - Jun 18, 2024 - 2:35pm
 
Europe - R_P - Jun 18, 2024 - 9:33am
 
What Are You Going To Do Today? - KurtfromLaQuinta - Jun 16, 2024 - 8:57pm
 
What Did You See Today? - Manbird - Jun 16, 2024 - 2:39pm
 
Geomorphology - kurtster - Jun 16, 2024 - 1:29pm
 
Artificial Intelligence - thisbody - Jun 16, 2024 - 10:53am
 
The Chomsky / Zinn Reader - thisbody - Jun 16, 2024 - 10:42am
 
Football, soccer, futbol, calcio... - thisbody - Jun 16, 2024 - 8:35am
 
No stream after station ID - arlen.nelson969 - Jun 15, 2024 - 2:29pm
 
Business as Usual - kurtster - Jun 15, 2024 - 9:53am
 
What Makes You Laugh? - Antigone - Jun 14, 2024 - 7:04pm
 
Lyrics that strike a chord today... - oldviolin - Jun 14, 2024 - 3:15pm
 
China - R_P - Jun 14, 2024 - 2:59pm
 
what the hell, miamizsun? - oldviolin - Jun 14, 2024 - 2:08pm
 
Religion - Steely_D - Jun 14, 2024 - 1:28pm
 
Vinyl Only Spin List - kurtster - Jun 14, 2024 - 8:56am
 
Solar / Wind / Geothermal / Efficiency Energy - Proclivities - Jun 14, 2024 - 6:42am
 
Florida - R_P - Jun 13, 2024 - 3:35pm
 
Democratic Party - thisbody - Jun 13, 2024 - 9:08am
 
Index » Regional/Local » USA/Canada » It's the economy stupid. Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 9, 10, 11  Next
Post to this Topic
NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 9:09am

 black321 wrote:

The aggregate shows growing levels of debt and depleted savings...which is being born by the bottom half of the income earners. 
The upper half are still strong, boosted by higher returns on their fixed income investments and a rising stock market.  
Rich get richer, poor have children.


This suggests that you would support some kind of wealth distribution in favour of the bottom half. Maybe we have more in common than I thought.
what about student loan debt relief? What's your position on that?

black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 8:55am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:


ok, I'll do the work for you (yes I'm feeling snarky today, apologies in advance). 
1. my OECD data put the average public debt to GDP at 210%. So 217% is not that much higher than the long-term average.  
2. Yes, you are right on credit card debt reaching 1 trillion.
3. However, credit card debt only accounts for 5.8% of total household debt using Q2 2023 figures 
4. You would think that if excessive debt has been issued, there would be higher defaults on credit card debt, but this is not the case:
  "Delinquency rates were roughly flat in the second quarter of 2023 and remained low, after declining sharply since the beginning of the pandemic." (from the above source).
.  Admittedly, this might change rapidly in a recession.
5. You are right on public debt. I would be a little unsettled at 130% of GDP too. The U.S. is on the wrong end of the chart on this one. 

ok, that was my 10 minutes of public service for the day.

I suspect that if Biden is re-elected the Democrats will rein in public spending to get the public debt down again as they frequently do in their second term.





Total household debt has only held steady in recent periods because very few are assuming new mortgages - home sales are at historical lows. That and they locked in the low mortgage rates is the good news.
Non-household debt is surging because of CC, student loans, and auto loans grew, while the savings rate has plummeted. 
https://www.newyorkfed.org/mic...
The average CC holdings is somewhere between $6000-$8000 according to sources like Bankrate, and about 30% of holders carry a balance. These are the lower income consumers. 
And delinquency rates are rising and now back above pre-pan levels,

The aggregate shows growing levels of debt and depleted savings...which is being born by the bottom half of the income earners. 
The upper half are still strong, boosted by higher returns on their fixed income investments and a rising stock market.  
Rich get richer, poor have children.

Further, I'm specifically speaking of household debt, which excludes business debt.

That's my 2 mins of public service... as for your last assumption...we havent had a surplus since Clinton...so debt will continue to grow. Best you might hope for is that the GDP grows at a faster pace than the deficit. 



NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 8:44am

PS. Public debt to GDP was comparably high during Trump's tenure compared to 2022.
NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 8:37am

 black321 wrote:


So your data shows a rising trend - 165% in 1995, which was already high, to 218 in 2022, 53 pts higher...and that data is compromised by the pandemic (it likely jumped again in 2023)
Credit card debt passed $1t in 3Q, and by most estimates continued to grow in 4Q, while rates are above 20%. 
At the same time, the pandemic savings surplus has been squandered on pickle ball racquets and tshirts...with the savings rate now around 4%, compared to 5% to 6% historical.

No offense but, one doesn't need to look that hard to see the U.S. and most of the western world has a debt problem and is living beyond its means. This is especially apparent for the low to middle-income consumer, who in the US has been in a recession since 2022.

And then there is the public debt, which grew by over 50% since the pandemic to over $30T. 


ok, I'll do the work for you (yes I'm feeling snarky today, apologies in advance). 
1. my OECD data put the average public debt to GDP at 210%. So 217% is not that much higher than the long-term average.  
2. Yes, you are right on credit card debt reaching 1 trillion.
3. However, credit card debt only accounts for 5.8% of total household debt using Q2 2023 figures 
4. You would think that if excessive debt has been issued, there would be higher defaults on credit card debt, but this is not the case:
  "Delinquency rates were roughly flat in the second quarter of 2023 and remained low, after declining sharply since the beginning of the pandemic." (from the above source).
.  Admittedly, this might change rapidly in a recession.
5. You are right on public debt. I would be a little unsettled at 130% of GDP too. The U.S. is on the wrong end of the chart on this one. 

ok, that was my 10 minutes of public service for the day.

I suspect that if Biden is re-elected the Democrats will rein in public spending to get the public debt down again as they frequently do in their second term.



black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 8:12am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

"Private Debt to GDP in the United States decreased to 217.80 percent in 2022 from 223.30 percent in 2021. Private Debt to GDP in the United States averaged 210.46 percent from 1995 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 235.30 percent in 2020 and a record low of 165.10 percent in 1995." source: OECD.


if you have figures for 2023, please post them.


So your data shows a rising trend - 165% in 1995, which was already high, to 218 in 2022, 53 pts higher...and that data is compromised by the pandemic (it likely jumped again in 2023)
Credit card debt passed $1t in 3Q, and by most estimates continued to grow in 4Q, while rates are above 20%. 
At the same time, the pandemic savings surplus has been squandered on pickle ball racquets and tshirts...with the savings rate now around 4%, compared to 5% to 6% historical.

No offense but, one doesn't need to look that hard to see the U.S. and most of the western world has a debt problem and is living beyond its means. This is especially apparent for the low to middle-income consumer, who in the US has been in a recession since 2022.

And then there is the public debt, which grew by over 50% since the pandemic to over $30T. 
NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 7:55am

 black321 wrote:


Much of which was supported by record credit card spending...while rates are above 20%
As long as we ignore the unsustainable debt, everything is fine

"Private Debt to GDP in the United States decreased to 217.80 percent in 2022 from 223.30 percent in 2021. Private Debt to GDP in the United States averaged 210.46 percent from 1995 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 235.30 percent in 2020 and a record low of 165.10 percent in 1995." source: OECD.


if you have figures for 2023, please post them.
Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar

Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 7:54am

 black321 wrote:


Much of which was supported by record credit card spending...while rates are above 20%
As long as we ignore the unsustainable debt, everything is fine


It's the American Way!
black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 7:45am

 Red_Dragon wrote:

Much of which was supported by record credit card spending...while rates are above 20%
As long as we ignore the unsustainable debt, everything is fine
Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar

Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: Jan 25, 2024 - 6:59am

US economy grew at a surprisingly strong 3.3% pace last quarter, pointing to continued resilience
westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Jan 11, 2024 - 9:53pm

 rgio wrote:

.....

The US government needs to simplify and digitize.  We wouldn't need 88,000 more IRS agents if the rules weren't so F*#king complicated.  Carried interest, R&D tax credits, offshore income, active vs. passive income, itemized deductions, state and local rules, sales tax, inheritance tax....it's formal insanity.

.....

Agreed.  We do some crazy things up here in Canada but I am appalled at the complexity of tax credits, exemptions, different tax rates, etc., etc., one can find the USA.  Especially for savings and investments.  The system should be encouraging all people to save and invest, not create barriers to entry for the less sophisticated.

In Canada, we have this annoying habit of subsidizing every greenfield industrial project that surfaces and promises to hire more than a dozen bodies.  The economic rationale is almost always absent but politicians want to be seen helping to "create jobs".  That means less public funding for education, social services and basic R&D into energy storage.

black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 10, 2024 - 12:39pm

 westslope wrote:

The US economy is much stronger than many would have forecast going back a year or so.  But yes, the finances suck a big one.  Trouble is none of the two major parties have a plan to get federal finances into a surplus budgetary situation.  

The irony is that the debt is close to unsustainable while the USA engages in two major wars that pose the risk of escalating horizontally and vertically.  As if the 'old rules' of fiscal soundness and military strength no longer apply.  



The economy is in "stronger than expected shape" because consumers kept buying stuff and services by drawing down their savings and ramping up their borrowings.
Which is like saying Sears sold more shit than ever last year by borrowing money to fund its inventory which it sold at below cost.
rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 8, 2024 - 2:09pm

 westslope wrote:

The US economy is much stronger than many would have forecast going back a year or so.  But yes, the finances suck a big one.  Trouble is none of the two major parties have a plan to get federal finances into a surplus budgetary situation.  

The irony is that the debt is close to unsustainable while the USA engages in two major wars that pose the risk of escalating horizontally and vertically.  As if the 'old rules' of fiscal soundness and military strength no longer apply.  


Sure they do...the Republicans want to eliminate pretty much every government entitlement program because the base doesn't appreciate they are among the primary beneficiaries of the programs while they support tax cuts for people who have sold them that anything is possible... while the Democrats want to tax too few people to make up the shortfall without cutting anything.

The US problem is that the lobbyists can buy protection for everything, ensuring gridlock.   How can folks say that we need to reduce medicare costs, and then vote against negotiating drug prices? Tell people what they can and can't do about their health, and then remove thousands of people from healthcare entitlements. 

The US government needs to simplify and digitize.  We wouldn't need 88,000 more IRS agents if the rules weren't so F*#king complicated.  Carried interest, R&D tax credits, offshore income, active vs. passive income, itemized deductions, state and local rules, sales tax, inheritance tax....it's formal insanity.

I have spent the past 4 years working in sales tax, and there are upwards of 300 million rules in the US.  That's provided me with an opportunity, but only because the government enables such rampant stupidity.  I've had conversations with a state that accepted our system would eliminate 75% of the work for state auditors, only to have them say "Then what do I do with my people"?  150 auditors in one state....at 75k each or more...is over $11M in savings for a system that might cost them $1M/year.   People are the proxy of authority in the government, so nobody wants to shrink their fiefdom.  That could put them at risk... and as a friend of mine always says..."turkeys don't vote for Thanksgiving".

The debt has to go down.  The last President took the "greatest economy in history" and turned it into a deficit (before the pandemic).  We should have been paying down our debts and raising taxes...not socializing the redistribution of wealth to the top 3%.  If he wins again...he'll give more to the wealthy by eliminating support for those in need...and then complain that there are too many homeless and crime is too high.

You're right... neither party seems to have a clue how to fix it... but then again, nobody seems to want to do the math and find someone who can do something about the problem.  Party-on!!
westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Jan 8, 2024 - 12:07pm

 black321 wrote:

Tthe biggest problem, which no one likes to talk about, is debt...from the gov down to the consumer.
$1.7t deficit adding to over $34T in US natl debt, up over 50% or $12T since FYE19.
Consumer credit card debt over $1T and climbing, with interest rates over 20%

OK, the economy is "strong" because people are "consuming"...but our finances suck.


The US economy is much stronger than many would have forecast going back a year or so.  But yes, the finances suck a big one.  Trouble is none of the two major parties have a plan to get federal finances into a surplus budgetary situation.  

The irony is that the debt is close to unsustainable while the USA engages in two major wars that pose the risk of escalating horizontally and vertically.  As if the 'old rules' of fiscal soundness and military strength no longer apply.  

black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 8, 2024 - 10:44am

 kurtster wrote:

Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023

The government quietly erased 439,000 jobs through November 2023, a closer look at the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.

That means its initial jobs results were inflated by 439,000 positions, and the job market is not as healthy as the government suggests.

Since the government wiped out 439,000 jobs after the fact, the total percentage of jobs created by the government last year is even higher.

Increased government hiring has been driving the jobs numbers higher.

This matters because U.S. jobs reports move the markets and U.S. Treasury yields. Plus, they are a significant factor in the Federal Reserve’s decisions about the path of interest rate hikes and cuts. All that affects U.S. consumers’ pocketbooks.



These adjustments happen all the time. How many bps does this reflect maybe 20 bps? 
Point is, data isnt perfect, but it provides general trends of where the markets are...and generally the labor market is still pretty tight, in the aggregate.
Ave earnings were also up 4.1% in December. 
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 7, 2024 - 4:44am

 Red_Dragon wrote: 
Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023

The government quietly erased 439,000 jobs through November 2023, a closer look at the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.

That means its initial jobs results were inflated by 439,000 positions, and the job market is not as healthy as the government suggests.

Since the government wiped out 439,000 jobs after the fact, the total percentage of jobs created by the government last year is even higher.

Increased government hiring has been driving the jobs numbers higher.

This matters because U.S. jobs reports move the markets and U.S. Treasury yields. Plus, they are a significant factor in the Federal Reserve’s decisions about the path of interest rate hikes and cuts. All that affects U.S. consumers’ pocketbooks.


kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 7, 2024 - 4:35am

 black321 wrote:
Tthe biggest problem, which no one likes to talk about, is debt...from the gov down to the consumer.
$1.7t deficit adding to over $34T in US natl debt, up over 50% or $12T since FYE19.
Consumer credit card debt over $1T and climbing, with interest rates over 20% OK, the economy is "strong" because people are "consuming"...but our finances suck.

 
The interest payment on that $34 Trillion last year was $659 Billion and is expected to go over $800 Billion in 2024. 

It will or already has exceeded our annual defense budget.

The BRIC alliance is ever so much closer to ending the Dollar's international reserve currency status.  When that happens, we are toast, overnight.
black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 5, 2024 - 7:11am

Tthe biggest problem, which no one likes to talk about, is debt...from the gov down to the consumer.
$1.7t deficit adding to over $34T in US natl debt, up over 50% or $12T since FYE19.
Consumer credit card debt over $1T and climbing, with interest rates over 20%

OK, the economy is "strong" because people are "consuming"...but our finances suck.



Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar

Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: Jan 5, 2024 - 6:42am

US employers add a surprisingly strong 216,000 jobs in a sign of continued economic strength
black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 4, 2024 - 9:32am

One thing you often hear is that wage growth hasnt kept pace with inflation...took a quick look, and if you compare real earnings as of Feb 2020 and Nov 2023, real earnings are essentially flat (up about 60 bps).

Real hourly/weekly earnings were $11.01/$378.73 in Feb 2020 and $11.07/$380.96 in Nov 2023, per BLS.

thisbody

thisbody Avatar

Location: North (doubtful)
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 28, 2023 - 10:56am

Rice prices spike to 15 year high.

I remember them spiking few years ago, and the majority of people in India had to suffer from hunger, due to rice being traded on Wall Street. Similar to wheat prices which helped causing the 'Arab Spring' in Egypt.

When will those Wolves of Wall Street finally be decapitated?

I guess, only another Trump could do this. And, of course, everyone of us on our own small scale, if only we cared enough to think and act, beyond our private doorstep.

Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 9, 10, 11  Next