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Index » Radio Paradise/General » General Discussion » 2020 Elections Page: Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 49, 50, 51 ... 115, 116, 117  Next
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miamizsun

miamizsun Avatar

Location: (3283.1 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2020 - 8:33am

 cc_rider wrote:
Seems to me like anybody who makes their living in the polling industry needs to start looking for a new job. Something with a shred of credibility?
c.
 
agreed

we should apply that to politicians as well  {#Wink}
NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2020 - 7:29am

 rgio wrote:
Donnie is losing his shit....  I left the Twitter warning in case you want to learn more.

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

Some or all of the content shared in this Tweet is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process. Learn more

ANY VOTE THAT CAME IN AFTER ELECTION DAY WILL NOT BE COUNTED!
Law and order...  
 
Had to laugh about his "stop the count" tweet, which would give Biden Nevada and Arizona at the current count.
rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2020 - 7:25am

Donnie is losing his shit....  I left the Twitter warning in case you want to learn more.

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

Some or all of the content shared in this Tweet is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process. Learn more

ANY VOTE THAT CAME IN AFTER ELECTION DAY WILL NOT BE COUNTED!
Law and order...  

cc_rider

cc_rider Avatar

Location: Bastrop
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2020 - 7:16am

Seems to me like anybody who makes their living in the polling industry needs to start looking for a new job. Something with a shred of credibility?
c.
rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2020 - 6:48am



 steeler wrote:

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump
STOP THE COUNT!

What more proof do we need than his tweets the last couple days, including this one from this morning, that he is bad for, and a threat to,  our democracy? 
 
Don't look now...but PA somehow miraculously found the votes to remove me from office.  So corrupt.  Georgia too.  Arizona....keep up the good work, and make sure all of the votes for the great people of Arizona....and Nevada...are counted.  What a clown.

As a side note....STOP THE TESTING!  New high in US cases....only because we are testing bigly.  

steeler

steeler Avatar

Location: Perched on the precipice of the cauldron of truth


Posted: Nov 5, 2020 - 6:37am


Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump
STOP THE COUNT!

What more proof do we need than his tweets the last couple days, including this one from this morning, that he is bad for, and a threat to,  our democracy? 
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2020 - 5:45am

 R_P wrote:
 kurtster wrote:
When it is all said and done Trump got nearly 7 million more votes than in 2016.  A 15% ish increase.

2016
: 62,984,828 votes (46.09%)
2020: 68,315,823 votes (47.9%)

You're looking (currently) at ~5.35M increase. 8.5%. Truthful hyperbole... 

The enemy:
2016: 65,853,514 votes (48.18%)
2020: 71,922,848 votes (50.4%)
 
Trump will likely have 70 million when it is all counted. 

As of this morning he now has 68.7 million with 91% of the popular vote counted.

Whatever.  I think my point still stands scrutiny.
rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2020 - 4:40am

There is so much beautiful irony...karma maybe?...surrounding the election.   From John McCain's widow possibly grabbing Arizona away from Trump to the notion that mobs of black votes in GA and PA are going to track down Trump's lead and send the most racist President Andrew Johnson packing...

I love the fact that Fox News imploded the President's plan to claim victory.  The idea that Trump State TV went live with a call that A) flipped a Republican stronghold, B) did so long before anyone else, and C) may actually be wrong... is just pure theater.  

"If it was true that Arizona was lost, it would call into doubt on any claim of victory the president might be able to make."

Apparently, only half of us learned that everything the president says should be doubted.
R_P

R_P Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2020 - 11:31pm

“The only way Biden can win Arizona is through fraud,” said Jim Williams, 67, a welder who attended the protest. “I won’t accept a Biden victory. I don’t want to live under Communist rule.”
R_P

R_P Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2020 - 10:49pm

 kurtster wrote:
When it is all said and done Trump got nearly 7 million more votes than in 2016.  A 15% ish increase.

2016
: 62,984,828 votes (46.09%)
2020: 68,315,823 votes (47.9%)

You're looking (currently) at ~5.35M increase. 8.5%. Truthful hyperbole... 

The enemy:
2016: 65,853,514 votes (48.18%)
2020: 71,922,848 votes (50.4%)
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2020 - 10:10pm

Regarding the polls, the only one I paid attention to was the Real Politics averages.  The actual margins are much tighter than predicted.  The forecast Blue Wave did not happen.  It was promoted heavily and was intended to scare or demoralize Trump voters.

When it is all said and done Trump got nearly 7 million more votes than in 2016.  A 15% ish increase.  In spite of the Pandemic and the Impeachment.  He was not abandoned.  It appears that the repubs keep the Senate.  That is key and 70 million people's thoughts are going to be hard to ignore.  They are not all White Supremacists, xenophobics and homophobics either.  That is what your party wants you to believe.  You don't have to listen to them because of who your party says they are.  Believe your party and pretend that they are at your own risk.  And y'all already know what happens to people who go against your party.  Cancelled they are.

ymwv ...

Edit:  how timely.  I did not see the post below until putting this up.  See my bolded ...
whatshisname

whatshisname Avatar

Location: West OZ
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2020 - 10:01pm

So why are the pollsters getting it wrong?
https://www.smh.com.au/world/n...
R_P

R_P Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2020 - 9:04pm

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:
 KarmaKarma wrote:
The questions many of you should be asking yourselves is how could the pollsters be so very, very wrong again?
 
This comes up in some form every year. Pollsters have to constantly evolve to try to get a grip on the slippery eel known as The Voter. Can you tell me what benefit there is to being truthful with a poll? If you know you're being polled, wouldn't you benefit more by saying the exact opposite of what's true? Voting for Jones? Tell them you're Voting for Smith. In aggregate, that sort of skew will make Smith voters complacent and Jones voters panic. Both good outcomes. I haven't heard of any organized "gaming" of the system around this, but I wouldn't be surprised to learn that a significant number of people do this, either just to mess with the system, or with this effect in mind.

Unlikely. And probably minute. Also see Prisoner's dilemma (esp. the defector).
All in all, the good news for pollsters is that few, if any, voters are misleading them about their support for Trump. Yes, Morning Consult found small differences in support for Trump via household income and education, with wealthier and college-educated voters less likely to say they support Trump in a live-phone poll, but the shifts weren’t statistically meaningful.
You vote based on polls?
ScottFromWyoming

ScottFromWyoming Avatar

Location: Powell
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2020 - 8:43pm



 KarmaKarma wrote:
The questions many of you should be asking yourselves is how could the pollsters be so very, very wrong again?
 
This comes up in some form every year. Pollsters have to constantly evolve to try to get a grip on the slippery eel known as The Voter. Can you tell me what benefit there is to being truthful with a poll? If you know you're being polled, wouldn't you benefit more by saying the exact opposite of what's true? Voting for Jones? Tell them you're Voting for Smith. In aggregate, that sort of skew will make Smith voters complacent and Jones voters panic. Both good outcomes. I haven't heard of any organized "gaming" of the system around this, but I wouldn't be surprised to learn that a significant number of people do this, either just to mess with the system, or with this effect in mind.

kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2020 - 8:14pm

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 kurtster wrote:

Things have indeed evolved without changes in the Constitution.  There was a time when US Senators were selected by state legislatures.  Now it is by direct vote.
 
THAT one took the Seventeenth Amendment
 
Thanks, I stand corrected.
R_P

R_P Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2020 - 8:12pm

 KarmaKarma wrote:
The questions many of you should be asking yourselves is how could the pollsters be so very, very wrong again?

 KarmaKarma predicted:
Popular vote: Trump by a frigging landslide
EC: Trump by a good margin - he will out-perform his 2016 result of 306.

Not even wrong.
ScottFromWyoming

ScottFromWyoming Avatar

Location: Powell
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2020 - 8:05pm



 kurtster wrote:

Things have indeed evolved without changes in the Constitution.  There was a time when US Senators were selected by state legislatures.  Now it is by direct vote.
 
THAT one took the Seventeenth Amendment
KarmaKarma

KarmaKarma Avatar



Posted: Nov 4, 2020 - 8:04pm

Well that was fun!  Of course, the game the Dems are playing is not over yet.  I believe Trump will prevail in the end.

The questions many of you should be asking yourselves is how could the pollsters be so very, very wrong again?  What shenanigans are occurring in the battleground states, and are you totally cool with that, so long as your guy wins?  What about those big Senate races where the R incumbents were to be blown out of the water by the hundreds of million$ thrown against them — and yet they eek out the crazy victory of double digit percentages!

Are you really paying attention?  If you are, everyone, whether R or D should be very concerned.

Think carefully.
R_P

R_P Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2020 - 8:02pm


kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2020 - 6:20pm

 westslope wrote:


 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 westslope wrote:

The US constitution favours the current political party duopoly.    The constitution will not change.
 

It doesn't need to change for ranked choice voting to be implemented by states and communities. 
 

Hmm.  Maybe I should hear/read more about this.

 
Things have indeed evolved without changes in the Constitution.  There was a time when US Senators were selected by state legislatures.  Now it is by direct vote.
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