Might not be readily apparent yet, but get ready for pump prices to rise again globally.
IMO this can be directly attributed to Mike Johnson holding up vital military aid for Ukraine which has basically forced Ukraine to take matters into its own hands and systematically take out Russia's oil refineries one by one. World gas prices can be expected to rise as a result.
According to the FT, the US administration asked for Ukraine to cease and desist (fearing higher pump prices in an election year) but it looks like the speaker has squandered all your bargaining power over Ukraine which is facing more dire existential threats. I can't say I blame them.
Why do you think it can't be won?
This war can easily be won, if the west steps up to the plate. Ukraine is being forced to fight with one hand tied behind its back and only using western army surplus and old soviet stocks. Ukraine has not been given any western planes (bar the odd helicopter), buggar all hardware and is being forced to find its own innovations with drones etc. Moreover, it barely attacks Russian soil and has promised not to use western equipment to attack Russia.
Russia on the other hand, just bombs the shit out of civilian targets and no one gives a damn. Their attrition rate is about three times that of Ukraine, which, I guess, kind of even outs the numbers.
But even without western support, I think Ukraine will win. They are fighting for their life. They are not going to give up. Poland and the Baltics will support them as best they can (not to be sneezed at - I would even think that Poland and the Baltics alone could do the job).
However, I don't think it will get that dire. Slowly Europe is realising that Putin is indeed attacking the very idea of Europe and not just Ukraine and has been for a while. When that finally sinks in and translates into policy decisions, Russia doesn't have a chance.
There is perhaps a very fine line between Putin apologists, who argue politically he has a right to invade Ukraine and/or perhaps the west led him to invade by expanding Nato, and those who question a war that seemingly can't be won. The latter point being, what are we going to accomplish either with the current piecemeal support, leading to a prolonged bludgeoning of both sides, or all out support? Can Ukraine win with either approach against its much stronger aggressor? Also, I'm not pretending to be smart enough to answer these questions, but I do ask them.
Why do you think it can't be won?
This war can easily be won, if the west steps up to the plate. Ukraine is being forced to fight with one hand tied behind its back and only using western army surplus and old soviet stocks. Ukraine has not been given any western planes (bar the odd helicopter), buggar all hardware and is being forced to find its own innovations with drones etc. Moreover, it barely attacks Russian soil and has promised not to use western equipment to attack Russia.
Russia on the other hand, just bombs the shit out of civilian targets and no one gives a damn. Their attrition rate is about three times that of Ukraine, which, I guess, kind of even outs the numbers.
But even without western support, I think Ukraine will win. They are fighting for their life. They are not going to give up. Poland and the Baltics will support them as best they can (not to be sneezed at - I would even think that Poland and the Baltics alone could do the job).
However, I don't think it will get that dire. Slowly Europe is realising that Putin is indeed attacking the very idea of Europe and not just Ukraine and has been for a while. When that finally sinks in and translates into policy decisions, Russia doesn't have a chance.
There is perhaps a very fine line between Putin apologists, who argue politically he has a right to invade Ukraine and/or perhaps the west led him to invade by expanding Nato, and those who question a war that seemingly can't be won. The latter point being, what are we going to accomplish either with the current piecemeal support, leading to a prolonged bludgeoning of both sides, or all out support? Can Ukraine win with either approach against its much stronger aggressor? Also, I'm not pretending to be smart enough to answer these questions, but I do ask them.
I know.
ok, I don't know,
but I suspect that you possibly have some Russian in you. So stretching out on a limb and forgive me if I am wildly wrong, but I personally have no problems with a lot of the aspects of Russian culture. I loved reading Russian literature. I see 19C Russian composers as the true legacy of European classical music (ok the Stockhausen crowd might come and beat me up tonight), but I was srsly into Shostakovich for a long time after slowly working my way through the epochs of European classical music.
I truly, sincerely wish, that Russia would come on board and accept its place in Europe. It belongs there. It does.
But this imperialistic streak and the very dark, dark places it takes Russia is a sickness. Sorry if that offends. But I can't see it any other way. Germany also went totally off the rails and I know evil it is latent in ALL cultures. I have seen it in NZ which many hold up as a paragon of virtue. We are all human. And that comes with risks attached.
Russia has to renounce its imperialist ambitions and join the global village as an equal member. Nothing more, nothing less. It would be a great addition to the family.
oh, and pay reparations for the immense suffering it has caused.
No, not of russian ancestry or a putin sympathizer.
And fully agree with the bold.
because, maybe, the belief is we can't "beat" Russia without fully escalating this situation.
so the best we can do is support a slow bludgeoning of both sides.
either way, its insanity....fighting over some hills.
I know.
ok, I don't know,
but I suspect that you possibly have some Russian in you. So stretching out on a limb and forgive me if I am wildly wrong, but I personally have no problems with a lot of the aspects of Russian culture. I loved reading Russian literature. I see 19C Russian composers as the true legacy of European classical music (ok the Stockhausen crowd might come and beat me up tonight), but I was srsly into Shostakovich for a long time after slowly working my way through the epochs of European classical music.
I truly, sincerely wish, that Russia would come on board and accept its place in Europe. It belongs there. It does.
But this imperialistic streak and the very dark, dark places it takes Russia is a sickness. Sorry if that offends. But I can't see it any other way. Germany also went totally off the rails and I know evil it is latent in ALL cultures. I have seen it in NZ which many hold up as a paragon of virtue. We are all human. And that comes with risks attached.
Russia has to renounce its imperialist ambitions and join the global village as an equal member. Nothing more, nothing less. It would be a great addition to the family.
oh, and pay reparations for the immense suffering it has caused.
While the West is busy telling Putin what they WONT do, Russia has just started mass production of 3000kg guided bombs that are sufficient to obliterate any European city. The western world just has no idea what the fuck is happening
because, maybe, the belief is we can't "beat" Russia without fully escalating this situation.
so the best we can do is support a slow bludgeoning of both sides.
either way, its insanity....fighting over some hills.
While the West is busy telling Putin what they WONT do, Russia has just started mass production of 3000kg guided bombs that are sufficient to obliterate any European city. The western world just has no idea what the fuck is happening
re your comments on people not learning from history, there is a great line in Merz's speech that got mangled a bit in the translation:
"History is a teacher, not a judge.
But as a teacher it is very harsh with people who don't do their homework."
edit: researching this a bit, the original is from Irina Scherbakowa and reads "Die Geschichte lehrt nicht, aber sie bestraft hart für nicht gemachte Hausaufgaben i.e.
"history doesn't teach, but it does punish you for not doing your homework."
Merz got it a bit wrong, but I think I actually prefer his version.
well, that took two years longer than it had to. But better late than never.
Today the leaders of the Weimar Triangle meet (France Germany and Poland). This could go two ways: either Scholz buckles and follows the line of Macron and Tusk or he stubbornly keeps to his pro-Putin line of appeasement (most likely).
But if he remains stubborn, I think it is highly likely his ruling coalition crumbles and he will be out of power.
OTOH, if he buckles, he will be sidelined.
Either outcome would be most welcome.
ok, on Trump we are world's apart. I am convinced he is selling his own supporters down the river. He knows what sells, so he gives it to them. Deep down he doesn't give a shit because he is physically incapable of it. (yes, you read that right, physically - something is not wired quite right in his edit: brain (- google search says insular cortex - he displays all the signs of malignant NPD ...). This would also explain his coddling up to strong authoritarian leaders, which you have to admit, is just weird.
But we are not world's apart on democracy or Ukraine, or even on the Republican Party.
tbh, there are a lot of Republicans I would like to see form a credible party (or retake their own party) - not because I support the Republican cause per se, but because I think democracy needs a strong, cogent opposition. And the U.S. simply does not have that at the moment. They have completely hollowed themselves out and are now beholden to the likes of MTG and Boebert, tossing around lowest common denominator slogans like immigrants, the border, etc.
IMO, that is just pathetic. These are peripheral issues, not fundamental ones, and they are using them to stoke mass fervour to win an election.
/threadjack.
(continue threadjack)
I think you both are right.
Trump does hold some policies - low taxes, punish adversaries and trade partners like China (but also Europe), secure borders, limited foreign involvement
But he also shows no loyalty or respect for anyone who works in his administration.
I also would like to commend you two for a civil discussion, despite opposing views...quite refreshing.
For all those who canât contemplate a trump supporter as being other than the âtroglodytesâ or buffoons often seen interviewed on left leaning comedy news showsâ¦Beakerâs responses show the reality of how many view Trump.
The way i see it...some of it is rational and correct, other bits irrational and falseâ¦not too different to the mix of Biden supporters. Essentially a lesser of two evils...ends justify the means.
First signs that the junior coalition partners in Germany have had enough of the SPD's Russian-friendly line and are willing to walk out. Early days yet, but long overdue.
Beaker:
Disagree. From the beginning, Trump has displayed his convictions on a number of topics - the border being one.
ok, on Trump we are world's apart. I am convinced he is selling his own supporters down the river. He knows what sells, so he gives it to them. Deep down he doesn't give a shit because he is physically incapable of it. (yes, you read that right, physically - something is not wired quite right in his edit: brain (- google search says insular cortex - he displays all the signs of malignant NPD ...). This would also explain his coddling up to strong authoritarian leaders, which you have to admit, is just weird.
But we are not world's apart on democracy or Ukraine, or even on the Republican Party.
tbh, there are a lot of Republicans I would like to see form a credible party (or retake their own party) - not because I support the Republican cause per se, but because I think democracy needs a strong, cogent opposition. And the U.S. simply does not have that at the moment. They have completely hollowed themselves out and are now beholden to the likes of MTG and Boebert, tossing around lowest common denominator slogans like immigrants, the border, etc.
IMO, that is just pathetic. These are peripheral issues, not fundamental ones, and they are using them to stoke mass fervour to win an election.
There is a top-level meeting between Macron, Scholz and Tusk tomorrow. Somehow I think Scholz is going to double down on his decision not to send Taurus or take any more steps than he already has. Why? He needs the votes of the pacifists in his party to shore up his performance in the next election (where he almost certain to lose anyway)
But this will mean Germany gets sidelined by the rest of Europe which has slowly recognised the very real threat that Russia now poses to Europe.
The fact of the matter is that Russia has been preparing for this attack against Europe for years, buying up critical infrastructure, destabilising its politics, infiltrating governing bodies with spies, etc. and basically Europe hasn't really cared because it thought Russia was a joke (further fuelling Putin's feeling of inferiority and resentment).
Germany getting sidelined for once in the EU is not necessarily a bad thing. And to be honest, after all their cozying up to Russia I think they have lost whatever authority they may have had.
They could earn it back of course, with the right leaders, but Scholz is certainly not one of them.
