Ukraine War Highlights Tensions in Putin’s Objectives. Will He Win the War and Lose the Peace?

Posted on March 3, 2022 by Yves Smith

Russia embarked on a large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, catching just about everyone by surprise.¹ Despite Western politicians and the press attempting to depict Russia as going slowly and/or doing poorly, it’s already clear a mere week in Russia will prevail. Russia had only deployed a small portion of its available forces. It appears to have been taking more casualties to reduce civilian deaths. It has left the power, the Internet, and even the cell phone system up even though that helped the Ukrainian army, presumably to reduce civilian panic and hardship. So far, it has also avoided civilian targets and infrastructure (“avoided” does not mean “completely spared”; something that surgical isn’t feasible).

Russia still has to subdue important population centers, such as Kiev, Mariupol, Odessa. While the exact conditions on the ground are disputed, Russia appears to have encircled or at least terminally tied down the bulk of the Ukrainian army in Donbass, making it impossible to relieve Kiev. Depending on who you trust, Kiev is largely or entirely encircled. Ditto Mariupol and Odessa. Russia is also reported to be staging an amphibious assault on Odessa.

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So then the question is what the US will accept. I’m not sure how it can back down. But Biden completely undercut his ability to push Europeans around by stating the US would not provide troops to support ground combat in Eastern Europe. So the French and Germans are supposed to serve as cannon fodder when they tried to avoid confrontation with Russia, such as opposing the NATO enlargement in 2008 to include Georgia and Ukraine, and by their repeated failed efforts to implement the Minsk Protocol.

As we’ve pointed out, Russia has held back from economic retaliation, such as seizing Western assets in Russia, choking commodities supplies, and violating patents. But the current sanctions are inflicting pain and weakening Putin’s position, although not necessarily in the way the Western press portrays. Readers closer to Russia report that citizens, particularly now the pretty large middle class, are freaked out by the collapse of the rouble. But even more important, many have been directly whacked by the increase in interest rates to 20%. Many if not most mortgages are floating rate. And vlade reports that new mortgages are not being written, so home sales are presumably frozen.

So if Western economic sanctions aren’t unwound soon, which seems extremely unlikely, Putin will lose backing among the more prosperous segments of Russian society. How that plays out remains to be seen.

 miamizsun wrote:

Humans have been conditioned to commit atrocities for millennia.

is this the un vote?

because if it is...



imagine being aligned with one of the red countries...

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

didn't read it yet (the article links to bloomberg?)

not sure how any human being could do that to another human being

how would you condition someone to "execute" such an atrocity?

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:

will you take rubles? (funny not funny) 

 Red_Dragon wrote:

Yeah but this time they're doing it to get rid of Nazis.

Anybody want to buy a bridge? 

🌉

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

Just like the last assholes who invaded Ukraine. The irony is obscene.

and speaking of shear brutality 

"Russia has drawn up plans for public executions in Ukraine as and when cities are captured by Russian troops, Bloomberg reports.

Bloomberg cites a European intelligence official as saying that Moscow has drafted strategies to break morale in order to discourage Ukrainians from fighting back as cities fall under the Kremlin’s control.

The official said Moscow plans to crack down on protest, detain opponents and potentially carry out public executions, the news agency writes."

 rgio wrote:
tbh it is the only angle I have read that at least makes Putin's actions consistent (and therefore not totally irrational). It honestly looks like he thinks he just has to hunker down, go overboard on the brutality, subjugate a people by the force of shear cruelty and wait for the international community to swallow its pride and start trading with him again.  This might be the only real angle that is consistent with all the facts. 

Teen Who Tracked Elon Musk's Private Jet Starts Following Flights Of Russian Oligarchs

BY TYLER DURDEN TUESDAY, MAR 01, 2022 - 12:30 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

A teenager who was blocked on social media by Elon Musk after tracking the Tesla chief executive officer’s private jet has now started following the private planes of Russian oligarchs.

Jack Sweeney, 19, created a Twitter account called “Russian Oligarch Jets” in February amid President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
This is a pretty good summary (I think)....

Putin is a small man, physically, and growing up in postwar Leningrad must have been tough for him. It clearly taught him a lesson: if you are the smaller boy, hit first, hit hard and keep hitting. And the bigger boys will learn to fear you, and will back off. It is a lesson he has taken to heart. The US’s military budget for 2021 was about $750bn, Europe’s combined budget $200bn, and Russia’s about $65bn. Yet he still scares us a lot more than we scare him. It’s the advantage of fighting like a cornered rat, rather than like a pudgy boy gone soft on a diet of Coca-Cola, Instagram and 80 years of peace in Europe.

good opinion piece on Putin

re the discussion on a no-flight zone.

I tend to agree with Ben Wallace. The EU and NATO need to draw a line between passively and actively engaging the Russians. It looks to all intents and purposes to me that Putin is actively seeking a direct confrontation with NATO so we shouldn't give him an excuse.
Further, a no-fly zone wouldn't be accepted by the Russians and would immediately lead to an air battle. Then it is all on. 

But NATO and the EU can equip the Ukrainians to fight our war for us without that counting as direct hostilities. Also Ukraine has a lot of options still open to it, given the right equipment. The Russians, most strangely, haven't established air superiority and Ukrainian drones have inflicted a lot of damage.

But whatever way this pans out, it is going to be long and bloody and exact enormous human suffering. 

If true, this would be highly significant.

The Russian Federal Security Service leaked information that alerted Ukraine to an assassination plot against president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, according to the cyber-hacking collective Anonymous.

“Ukraine doesn’t want to be covered in bodies of soldiers,” he said. “Go home.”

 R_P wrote: 
Ah. What a quagmire. More clearly defined. Thanks.

 Red_Dragon wrote:
As quoted below, you (likely) can't establish a no-fly zone without Russia's agreement.

 R_P wrote:

Yes. I wonder if a Russian aircraft defending itself against an EU fighter would qualify as an attack on a NATO member. The devil is in the details, I suppose.

 oldviolin wrote:
The political arrangement includes foreign policy/defense.

 kurtster wrote: 
Indeed. I suppose I was referring to the original question by R_D. As to the overlaps, I'm sure further complications ensue at that point...