re your comments on people not learning from history, there is a great line in Merz's speech that got mangled a bit in the translation:
"History is a teacher, not a judge.
But as a teacher it is very harsh with people who don't do their homework."
edit: researching this a bit, the original is from Irina Scherbakowa and reads "Die Geschichte lehrt nicht, aber sie bestraft hart für nicht gemachte Hausaufgaben i.e.
"history doesn't teach, but it does punish you for not doing your homework."
Merz got it a bit wrong, but I think I actually prefer his version.
well, that took two years longer than it had to. But better late than never.
Today the leaders of the Weimar Triangle meet (France Germany and Poland). This could go two ways: either Scholz buckles and follows the line of Macron and Tusk or he stubbornly keeps to his pro-Putin line of appeasement (most likely).
But if he remains stubborn, I think it is highly likely his ruling coalition crumbles and he will be out of power.
OTOH, if he buckles, he will be sidelined.
Either outcome would be most welcome.
ok, on Trump we are world's apart. I am convinced he is selling his own supporters down the river. He knows what sells, so he gives it to them. Deep down he doesn't give a shit because he is physically incapable of it. (yes, you read that right, physically - something is not wired quite right in his edit: brain (- google search says insular cortex - he displays all the signs of malignant NPD ...). This would also explain his coddling up to strong authoritarian leaders, which you have to admit, is just weird.
But we are not world's apart on democracy or Ukraine, or even on the Republican Party.
tbh, there are a lot of Republicans I would like to see form a credible party (or retake their own party) - not because I support the Republican cause per se, but because I think democracy needs a strong, cogent opposition. And the U.S. simply does not have that at the moment. They have completely hollowed themselves out and are now beholden to the likes of MTG and Boebert, tossing around lowest common denominator slogans like immigrants, the border, etc.
IMO, that is just pathetic. These are peripheral issues, not fundamental ones, and they are using them to stoke mass fervour to win an election.
/threadjack.
(continue threadjack)
I think you both are right.
Trump does hold some policies - low taxes, punish adversaries and trade partners like China (but also Europe), secure borders, limited foreign involvement
But he also shows no loyalty or respect for anyone who works in his administration.
I also would like to commend you two for a civil discussion, despite opposing views...quite refreshing.
For all those who canât contemplate a trump supporter as being other than the âtroglodytesâ or buffoons often seen interviewed on left leaning comedy news showsâ¦Beakerâs responses show the reality of how many view Trump.
The way i see it...some of it is rational and correct, other bits irrational and falseâ¦not too different to the mix of Biden supporters. Essentially a lesser of two evils...ends justify the means.
First signs that the junior coalition partners in Germany have had enough of the SPD's Russian-friendly line and are willing to walk out. Early days yet, but long overdue.
Beaker:
Disagree. From the beginning, Trump has displayed his convictions on a number of topics - the border being one.
ok, on Trump we are world's apart. I am convinced he is selling his own supporters down the river. He knows what sells, so he gives it to them. Deep down he doesn't give a shit because he is physically incapable of it. (yes, you read that right, physically - something is not wired quite right in his edit: brain (- google search says insular cortex - he displays all the signs of malignant NPD ...). This would also explain his coddling up to strong authoritarian leaders, which you have to admit, is just weird.
But we are not world's apart on democracy or Ukraine, or even on the Republican Party.
tbh, there are a lot of Republicans I would like to see form a credible party (or retake their own party) - not because I support the Republican cause per se, but because I think democracy needs a strong, cogent opposition. And the U.S. simply does not have that at the moment. They have completely hollowed themselves out and are now beholden to the likes of MTG and Boebert, tossing around lowest common denominator slogans like immigrants, the border, etc.
IMO, that is just pathetic. These are peripheral issues, not fundamental ones, and they are using them to stoke mass fervour to win an election.
There is a top-level meeting between Macron, Scholz and Tusk tomorrow. Somehow I think Scholz is going to double down on his decision not to send Taurus or take any more steps than he already has. Why? He needs the votes of the pacifists in his party to shore up his performance in the next election (where he almost certain to lose anyway)
But this will mean Germany gets sidelined by the rest of Europe which has slowly recognised the very real threat that Russia now poses to Europe.
The fact of the matter is that Russia has been preparing for this attack against Europe for years, buying up critical infrastructure, destabilising its politics, infiltrating governing bodies with spies, etc. and basically Europe hasn't really cared because it thought Russia was a joke (further fuelling Putin's feeling of inferiority and resentment).
Germany getting sidelined for once in the EU is not necessarily a bad thing. And to be honest, after all their cozying up to Russia I think they have lost whatever authority they may have had.
They could earn it back of course, with the right leaders, but Scholz is certainly not one of them.
We actually agree more than you think.
(trim)
...
I put Trump into the camp of intellectually challenged narcissists who have found successful strategies for getting ahead in life that work for them. As Steeler said below he is transactional / opportunistic and I think he would choose whatever course it takes to advance his position. He is not fascist out of conviction for the simple fact that he has no conviction.
Disagree. From the beginning, Trump has displayed his convictions on a number of topics - the border being one.
NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
Sure, by far the majority of Trump's supporters are not pro-Putin or even remotely fascist. But they are swayed by a certain nationalist sentiment and/or fear of the progressive left which has opened a vein of support that Trump instinctively knows how to exploit.
Disagree. Swayed? No. More like common cause. And it's not a "fear of the progressive left" - more like they recognize the illogical, impractical, and dangerous ideas that so many on the progressive left tout as 'the only way' / 'the better way' - 'the enlightened way that the troglodyte right could nevah see, because troglodyte'. I'm not the best to articulate the differences between our modern political views - other that what I see as what they both (for simplicity: far right / far left) have in common â significant numbers of pholk who don't understand economics, and little grasp of the realities of the world outside their national borders.
NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
And I have no doubt that people like Steve Bannon are doing what they can in the background to further some weird program of social disarray (come to think of it, Bannon, with his admiration of Lenin, reminds me a bit of Mussolini and is following a very radical program. Dangerous piece of shit).
Conspiracy theory talk.
NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
Which is why I say being a Trump supporter AND a supporter of Ukraine is logically inconsistent. But hey, we have all been there.
Your comment suggests a person having this position would be a sufferer of cognitive dissonance. Disagree. That's far too simplistic an attitude. As I said, I'd have preferred seeing DeSantis win the nomination. I'm sure there are many that think like that. With Trump the all-but-certain nominee, I have no compunction switching my support to Trump - or WHOEVER THE R NOMINEE IS. Because Biden has destroyed so much - from energy security, to the border, to name a couple top-of-mind. Biden HAS to go. And who knows, perhaps DeSantis will be Trump's VP pick.
NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
Personally, my own political affiliation has changed radically since the war in Ukraine. I no longer use a left / right measuring stick to position people on the political spectrum. In fact the left/right thing seems to have become obsolete. WAY more relevant in this day and age is allegiance to democratic institutions and a rules-based order. So, to take Germany as an example, I could easily draw up a group of politicians from about five different parties that are my heroes and dump a whole lot of others from those very same parties.
My political views changed on 9/11. They've been affirmed and strengthened a number of times since. When Putin invaded Crimea in 2014, I already knew what my stance was on that. When the collective response around the world was a bunch of tersely worded memos, I was disappointed - because we've seen this movie before. When I learned that multiple countries were next participating in advanced training for Ukrainian troops, I saw that as good. And when Putin inevitably showed up at Ukraine's door, we knew what was ahead. My geo-political views haven't changed - perhaps they've only become more rigid.
NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
What I fear most are the actors on the left and the right (and even some in the middle) who seem entirely blind to what makes the system tick and are willing to sell it down the river for their own personal gain or merely out of a sense of frustration and impotence.
This we agree on. I fear the actors on any side who have seemingly failed to learn from the lessons offered by history - even the recent past. Far too focussed on pleasing a noisy part of the electorate, they opt for the easy way - to go against what Biden is doing. The same actors easily dismiss the obvious immediate and long term consequences of allowing Putin to ravage Ukraine. Because they are either unwilling, or incapable of explaining it to their noisy electorate contingent.
Politics will always be about having disagreements on course of action - - or even disagree on how / if to find a middle. History is a great teacher, especially from the viewpoint of 20/20 hindsight. Now if so many would only open their eyes â if conditions are met, history does in fact, repeat.
NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
ok, long rant. If you got this far, thanks for reading.
This would be the same Russian state TV that was advocating for the use of nuclear weapons (among other atrocities) a year or more ago. They're about as relevant as the MENSA folks on The View. And Victor Orban has lost his own credibility now - not long ago he was seen as an exciting populist leader (see the Tucker interview) he's now viewed as an obstructionist (most recently for his long delay in approving Sweden in NATO).
There will always be plenty of evidence that can be found, that offers support to any given belief. The Ukraine/Russia war, as seen through at least my eyes, is very much a long-term stance. We knew the definition of evil before 9/11. We know what it looks like. For many of us, we automatically knew our stance when Putin invaded. And that stance hasn't wavered one iota. We also know what the end-game paths might be. Some good, some not very good.
The concern people like me have - is when you have an utter fool & weakling in office (ie Trudeau) - bad decisions will be made using short term optics. Putin (like Xi) is very likely going to be in office for longer than the leaders of our existing govts - and the next leaders of those govts, in the waiting. Actions of Putin must be viewed with a long term view - to succeed and benefit future western govts. This is an attitude and approach that I can only hope that Trump understands. I believe our next leader of Canada - Pierre Poilievre - already does.
Both Putin & Xi understand the weakness of western democracy - it changes its leaders so often! Putin & Xi take the long term view and wait to strike when they see what they believe is the right opportunity. Putin, obviously failed miserably to foresee the response to his invasion of Ukraine - he's now in Day 747 of his 3 Day War.
We actually agree more than you think.
and I am no stranger to nuance. In terms of their character, Mussolini and Hitler were very different people. But both were pursuing similar objectives and the same time in history. And there are many more parallels between early 20C communism/socialism and fascism than many people are aware of. It is actually quite fascinating to see how these ideas unfolded in response to various historical contingencies.
I put Trump into the camp of intellectually challenged narcissists who have found successful strategies for getting ahead in life that work for them. As Steeler said below he is transactional / opportunistic and I think he would choose whatever course it takes to advance his position. He is not fascist out of conviction for the simple fact that he has no conviction.
Putin, on the other hand, is way more intelligent and obsessed with Russian nationalism and stamping his name on history. He definitely acts out of conviction. Entirely different people. So there is some nuance for you.
That said, Trump has definitely hitched his wagon to the forces of nationalism/isolationism/autocratic rule. That's why I put him in the same camp. (FWIW I see Orban to be a conniving politician who is peddling a nationalist line out of opportunism rather than conviction).
Sure, by far the majority of Trump's supporters are not pro-Putin or even remotely fascist. But they are swayed by a certain nationalist sentiment and/or fear of the progressive left which has opened a vein of support that Trump instinctively knows how to exploit. And I have no doubt that people like Steve Bannon are doing what they can in the background to further some weird program of social disarray (come to think of it, Bannon, with his admiration of Lenin, reminds me a bit of Mussolini and is following a very radical program. Dangerous piece of shit).
Which is why I say being a Trump supporter AND a supporter of Ukraine is logically inconsistent. But hey, we have all been there.
Personally, my own political affiliation has changed radically since the war in Ukraine. I no longer use a left / right measuring stick to position people on the political spectrum. In fact the left/right thing seems to have become obsolete. WAY more relevant in this day and age is allegiance to democratic institutions and a rules-based order. So, to take Germany as an example, I could easily draw up a group of politicians from about five different parties that are my heroes and dump a whole lot of others from those very same parties.
What I fear most are the actors on the left and the right (and even some in the middle) who seem entirely blind to what makes the system tick and are willing to sell it down the river for their own personal gain or merely out of a sense of frustration and impotence.
ok, long rant. If you got this far, thanks for reading.
Location: Perched on the precipice of the cauldron of truth
Posted:
Mar 9, 2024 - 3:03pm
NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
tbh, I don't really care what Trump has to say about anything anymore. His comments on NATO alone are enough to convince me he doesn't know how it works (as though all the other NATO members have to pay the US!!) and he doesn't understand the nature of the threat or how deterrence works.
And if I had any doubts, his extolling the virtues of Orban yesterday sealed the deal. They are all one of a bunch (i.e. autocratic, dictators or wannabe dictators and strongly nationalist who peddle a form of toxic masculinity that I find nauseating, and funnily enough, they are all very friendly to Putin)
. . .
Trump is transactional. He cannot see any big picture. Everything to him is dollars and cents and winners and losers. I took a course on negotiations and the main lesson was that negotiations are most successful when the two sides realize that more can be accomplished by working together so both come away as winners. In sum, trying to âwinâ the negotiation is not the way to go.
As for Trump and foreign policy: I believe it was an exasperated Secretary of Defense Mattis who had to explain to Trump that the reason we keep troops in South Korea is to prevent World War III.
Putin Raises Elderly Army as Ex-Serviceman Up to 70 Deemed Eligible Russian Foreign Ministry building is seen behind a Russian army billboard calling for recruits which says "victory is forged in fire." Russian lawmakers have extended the age limit for troops serving in the army.
Yeah, Putin's winning alright.
IMO, Ukraine will prevail.
tbh, I don't really care what Trump has to say about anything anymore. His comments on NATO alone are enough to convince me he doesn't know how it works (as though all the other NATO members have to pay the US!!) and he doesn't understand the nature of the threat or how deterrence works.
And if I had any doubts, his extolling the virtues of Orban yesterday sealed the deal. They are all one of a bunch (i.e. autocratic, dictators or wannabe dictators and strongly nationalist who peddle a form of toxic masculinity that I find nauseating, and funnily enough, they are all very friendly to Putin)
The logical inconsistency is not mine Beaker, but yours. You can't simultaneously be a Trump/Orban/Putin supporter AND be in favour of supporting Ukraine. They are mutually exclusive.
You know, if you go too far to the right, or too far to the left you end up in the same fetid back room of history where there is just one party ruling the roost and oppression of any dissent.
I presume that neither you nor I want to go there, so let's just respect our positions somewhere in the middle and distance ourselves from any arsehole wanting to drag history back into the dark ages.
A quick look at this...
WT actual F ?
Are you suggesting I support the views of Trump & Orban & Putin ... while I also support Ukraine? If that's your take, please go directly to drug rehab.
Or did you mean to say Trump supporters also support Orban & Putin ... while ... supporting Ukraine? If that's your take, please go directly to drug rehab.
Knock off the stereotypes. People can support some or many of Trump's ideas AND support Ukraine.
And people can support some or many of Trump's ideas AND not support Ukraine.
It's called nuance. I/we/they/they/xir can support a politician, but not agree with every position they take.
Fuck Orban. Fuck Putin. What matters is supporting Ukraine, or changing the minds of those who don't.
The enemy isn't Trump. It's idiots like Tucker Carlson and David Sacks with their asinine simplistic views on the significance of the Russia/Ukraine war.
If he gets in, Trump is still only going to be one term. One step at a time here.
tbh, I don't really care what Trump has to say about anything anymore. His comments on NATO alone are enough to convince me he doesn't know how it works (as though all the other NATO members have to pay the US!!) and he doesn't understand the nature of the threat or how deterrence works.
And if I had any doubts, his extolling the virtues of Orban yesterday sealed the deal. They are all one of a bunch (i.e. autocratic, dictators or wannabe dictators and strongly nationalist who peddle a form of toxic masculinity that I find nauseating, and funnily enough, they are all very friendly to Putin)
The logical inconsistency is not mine Beaker, but yours. You can't simultaneously be a Trump/Orban/Putin supporter AND be in favour of supporting Ukraine. They are mutually exclusive.
You know, if you go too far to the right, or too far to the left you end up in the same fetid back room of history where there is just one party ruling the roost and oppression of any dissent.
I presume that neither you nor I want to go there, so let's just respect our positions somewhere in the middle and distance ourselves from any arsehole wanting to drag history back into the dark ages.
In a Saturday post on Truth Social, the former president said no funds âin the form of foreign aid should be given to any country unless it is done as a loan.â
He argued the loan could be made on âEXTRAORDINARILY GOOD TERMS,â with no interest and âunlimited life,â but certain strings attached.
âTHE DEAL SHOULD BE (CONTINGENT!) THAT THE U.S. IS HELPING YOU, AS A NATION, BUT IF THE COUNTRY WE ARE HELPING EVER TURNS AGAINST US, OR STRIKES IT RICH SOMETIME IN THE FUTURE, THE LOAN WILL BE PAID OFF AND THE MONEY RETURNED TO THE UNITED STATES,â Trump wrote.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who has long backed more aid for Ukraine but voted against the Senate aid package, notably endorsed the idea Monday, arguing the âsupplemental aid package should be a loan to the countries in question, as suggested by President Trump.â
âA loan on friendly terms allows America, who is deeply in debt, a chance to get our money back and changes the paradigm of how we help others. President Trump is right to insist that we think outside the box,â he said in a statement.
response to Beaker moved here from the Biden thread:
As for Russia's remaining war machine. That is true, it has been badly battered and to some extent I am hoping for it to crumble in the next six months. However, Lithuania's intelligence service recently stated that Russia can maintain the current pace of attrition for another two years. And Europe is divided. There are too many soft-headed Russian sympathisers here. Look at how Germany is holding back on Taurus, which can be directly attributed to Scholz wanting to keep his anti-war contingent on board for the next election.
(edit: The people here in Western Europe are too comfortable and can't imagine what a Russian victory would actually mean. Russia doesn't need to occupy Europe, just install friendly regimes, like Orban in Hungary or Marie Le Pen in France)
If push comes to shove and Trump draws the U.S. out of Nato our only hope lies with the Baltic and eastern European nations and probably the UK.
I fear Germany will roll over and play dead. France will probably hide under its nuclear umbrella and has its own fair share of Russian sympathisers.
(Note, the Putin sympathisers generally share the following characteristics: fear of the future, fear of change, nationalistic and a desire to return to the golden olden days. They tend to be against European legislation and therefore anti EU, climate deniers, anti-vaxxers, etc. sound familiar? They are polling at about 30%., which is kind of frightening).
I fear our Pearl Harbour moment is yet to come.
ok, that was the bleak take. The positive take is that Eastern Europe, the former satellite states of the Soviet Union are really getting their shit together. They alone could probably take down the Russian war machine in its current state and I think that day might be coming faster than we think.
response to Beaker moved here from the Biden thread:
As for Russia's remaining war machine. That is true, it has been badly battered and to some extent I am hoping for it to crumble in the next six months. However, Lithuania's intelligence service recently stated that Russia can maintain the current pace of attrition for another two years. And Europe is divided. There are too many soft-headed Russian sympathisers here. Look at how Germany is holding back on Taurus, which can be directly attributed to Scholz wanting to keep his anti-war contingent on board for the next election.
(edit: The people here in Western Europe are too comfortable and can't imagine what a Russian victory would actually mean. Russia doesn't need to occupy Europe, just install friendly regimes, like Orban in Hungary or Marie Le Pen in France)
If push comes to shove and Trump draws the U.S. out of Nato our only hope lies with the Baltic and eastern European nations and probably the UK.
I fear Germany will roll over and play dead. France will probably hide under its nuclear umbrella and has its own fair share of Russian sympathisers.
(Note, the Putin sympathisers generally share the following characteristics: fear of the future, fear of change, nationalistic and a desire to return to the golden olden days. They tend to be against European legislation and therefore anti EU, climate deniers, anti-vaxxers, etc. sound familiar? They are polling at about 30%., which is kind of frightening).
I fear our Pearl Harbour moment is yet to come.
ok, that was the bleak take. The positive take is that Eastern Europe, the former satellite states of the Soviet Union are really getting their shit together. They alone could probably take down the Russian war machine in its current state and I think that day might be coming faster than we think.
Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater: "Ukraine, we need to bring that war to a close." "All Ukraine is doing now, is destroying itself demographically". "The western defence base is pathetic." "An ugly peace is better than whatever their idea of of ideal war is."
Essentially Prince is saying the same thing that most experts in strategic studies who are critical of the war and NATO's push into eastern Europe have been saying for many months now.
