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The critical Atlantic current system appears significantly more likely to collapse than previously thought after new research found that climate models predicting the biggest slowdown are the most realistic. Scientists called the new finding “very concerning” as a collapse would have catastrophic consequences for Europe, Africa and the Americas. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is a major part of the global climate system and was already known to be at its weakest for 1,600 years as a result of the climate crisis. Scientists spotted warning signs of a tipping point in 2021 and know that the Amoc has collapsed in the Earth’s past. (...)
The AMOC is undeniably weakening due to climate change, but scientists debate exactly how close we are to a total collapse. While some recent statistical models suggest a catastrophic tipping point could occur between 2037 and 2109, the broader scientific consensus indicates that an abrupt shutdown this century is highly unlikely.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) acts as a massive ocean conveyor belt. It brings warm water from the tropics up to the North Atlantic—giving Europe its mild climate—where the water cools, sinks, and travels south. As greenhouse gases warm the globe and melt ice, excess fresh water enters the ocean, disrupting the water's density and preventing it from sinking.
Where the scientific community stands:
The "Tipping Point" Theory: A widely debated 2023 study analyzed historical sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and predicted a complete collapse could be triggered between 2037 and the end of the century. Many researchers view this as a worst-case scenario, as statistical forecasting for complex systems has high uncertainty.
Gradual Decline: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers an abrupt AMOC collapse before 2100 to be unlikely. Instead, they forecast a continuous, progressive weakening of the currents. A 2026 study projects the AMOC could weaken by roughly 50% by the year 2100.
Reversibility: Recent modeling from institutions like Utrecht University suggests that Greenland's melting ice and rising atmospheric temperatures might only cause the AMOC to safely transition into a weaker state, rather than an irreversible, complete shutdown.
You can track the ongoing physical monitoring and real-world data collection of the AMOC on the National Oceanography Centre website.
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