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p4jkafla

p4jkafla Avatar

Location: New England, USA
Gender: Female


Posted: Sep 17, 2008 - 11:58am

 black321 wrote:
 

If you look at the period 1928 - 1942, there were 69 large drops in those 14 years, compared to just 17 large drops in the 60+ years since WWII.  The statistics from each period are both unique and cant be compared.  To say there were nice rebounds following the 17 drops in the past 60 years, and imply that that will occur this time is not accurate - if my guess that the current market environment is more like the pre war period than the post war.  Using statistics like the one mentioned in this article to support anytype of near term rebound is exactly the type of thinking that got the markets in the mess they are currently in. 

 
What leads you to believe that the current market environment is more like the prewar period than the post war? Comparing any period to any other leads to all sorts of assumptions about statistics. I would argue that the statistics from ALL periods are unique, but human nature isn't.


black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 17, 2008 - 11:52am

 p4jkafla wrote:

What makes you think its different this time?
  

If you look at the period 1928 - 1942, there were 69 large drops in those 14 years, compared to just 17 large drops in the 60+ years since WWII.  The statistics from each period are both unique and cant be compared.  To say there were nice rebounds following the 17 drops in the past 60 years, and imply that that will occur this time is not accurate - if my guess that the current market environment is more like the pre war period than the post war.  Using statistics like the one mentioned in this article to support anytype of near term rebound is exactly the type of thinking that got the markets in the mess they are currently in. 
p4jkafla

p4jkafla Avatar

Location: New England, USA
Gender: Female


Posted: Sep 17, 2008 - 11:45am

 black321 wrote:

I'd like to take a closer look at those numbers between 1928 and the war, specifically those 69 large percentage day drops during that period.  This is the type of environment we are currently in, as compared to the post-war period, and I dare say we have not yet seen the last "large percentage one day drops."
 
What makes you think its different this time?

black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 17, 2008 - 11:41am

 p4jkafla wrote:
THE GURU'S CORNER (from Marketwatch.com)

How bad is it? It's actually pretty darn good

Commentary: 'Buy when there's blood in the streets'

At times like these, I always turn to history. By historical standards, Monday's 504 point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was indeed large—the eighty-sixth largest one-day percentage loss since 1928, and the seventeenth largest since World War II. Does this mean it is time to jump ship?


 
I'd like to take a closer look at those numbers between 1928 and the war, specifically those 69 large percentage day drops during that period.  This is the type of environment we are currently in, as compared to the post-war period, and I dare say we have not yet seen the last "large percentage one day drops."

rosedraws

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Location: close to the edge
Gender: Female


Posted: Sep 17, 2008 - 11:38am

earthbased wrote:
Latest bailout: AIG. Starting taxpayer dollars: $85B. Conservative total estimate: $200B-$300B. So far estimated direct bail out value for Wall Street is around $500B not counting regional bank failures. Expect possible taxpayer money to pay off the party cost to be around $1 Trillion. Iraq War Cost now > $1.5 Trillion. Money grows on trees I guess. 1 worker supporting 4 retirees now and Social Security in Fiscal 2007 paid out more than it took in for the first time; GWB in 2004 gave baby boomers the Medicare Drug benefit for their votes for a starting cost of about $300B. Think about that and what is coming down the road. Are any politicians talking about this...Barack or McCain? If you are not a jaded American, read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt

It makes me feel so sick. 

phineas

phineas Avatar



Posted: Sep 17, 2008 - 11:31am

And of course people made money hand-over-fist for years, manipulating "sophisticated investment vehicles" (pick your ambiguous, BS label)... 
earthbased

earthbased Avatar

Location: By a Big Lake
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 17, 2008 - 11:29am

Latest bailout: AIG.  Starting taxpayer dollars: $85B.  Conservative total estimate: $200B-$300B.  So far estimated direct bail out value for Wall Street is around $500B not counting regional bank failures.  Expect possible taxpayer money to pay off the party cost to be around $1 Trillion.   Iraq War Cost now > $1.5 Trillion.  Money grows on trees I guess.  1 worker supporting 4 retirees now and Social Security in Fiscal 2007 paid out more than it took in for the first time; GWB in 2004 gave baby boomers the Medicare Drug benefit for their votes for a starting cost of about $300B.  Think about that and what is coming down the road.  Are any politicians talking about this...Barack or McCain?  If you are not a jaded American, read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt

p4jkafla

p4jkafla Avatar

Location: New England, USA
Gender: Female


Posted: Sep 17, 2008 - 11:22am

THE GURU'S CORNER (from Marketwatch.com)

How bad is it? It's actually pretty darn good

Commentary: 'Buy when there's blood in the streets'

By Jesse Czelusta, Index Rx
Last update: 12:11 p.m. EDT Sept. 17, 2008
SAN ANTONIO, Texas (IndexRx) — I just finished a telephone conversation with a friend who works for a large brokerage firm. He describes the typical mindset among his clients at the moment as one of panic and despair.
The average investor, it seems, is considering giving up on the stock market and burying his money under a mattress (or in money market funds). Should you too be thinking about the exit?
At times like these, I always turn to history. By historical standards, Monday's 504 point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was indeed large—the eighty-sixth largest one-day percentage loss since 1928, and the seventeenth largest since World War II. Does this mean it is time to jump ship?
To answer, let's look at the sixteen post-WWII declines that were larger, and ask the following question: What happened afterwards?
The answer may surprise you. It should certainly prevent you from shouting panicked sell orders at your broker.
I calculated several averages for all sixteen declines that were larger than Monday's 4.4% drop. On average, the Dow was 10.4% higher six months after a decline. 13.8% higher one-year after. 27.0% higher two-years after. And 45.6% higher five-years after. By contrast, investing in the Dow on any random day from Jan. 2, 1946 through Monday's decline would have yielded 37.9% over on average over a five-year period.
Some would argue that Monday's drop was not large enough. In other words, the market has not yet "capitulated" and that we are likely to see further declines. This may well be the case. But interestingly enough, if we again crunch some numbers for the sixteen largest one-day declines, the correlation between the size of the initial decline and the size of the subsequent rise, though negative, was relatively low.
R-squared statistics are small (0.01, 0.05, 0.18, and 0.05 for six-months, one-year, two-year, and five-year periods, respectively). One way to interpret this is that, as long as the drop is large, it doesn't seem to matter how large — the market is likely to bounce back strongly in the near future.
So if history is any guide, you would be foolish to succumb to panic. In fact, you might even want to increase your holdings. Notice that for periods of up to two years, the market has tended to perform far better than usual following large declines.

In the end, it's a question of who are you going to trust—the media, your own emotions, or the guidance of history? I know who my money is on.
Jesse Czelusta co-edits, along with his father Lawrence Czelusta, the Index Rx investment letter. Jesse has a PhD in economics from Stanford University. (indexrx.com

I would also add parenthetically that a drop of 50% in prices (for example $100 falling to $50) requires a 100% rebound to break even ($50 must go up $50 to get back to where you were)

However, NEW investments aren't subject to that math and so increasing your holdings makes total sense.



cc_rider

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Location: Bastrop
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 16, 2008 - 1:38pm

 owld_skipper wrote:
News Flash!

The market meltdown is all the fault of .... wait for it.....   THE DEMOCRATS!!

So say several key republican spokes-persons that I have been watching over the past 30 minutes.
  Well, duh. Market meltdown, global warming, New Coke, ALL are the fault of the Democrats. Try to keep up, willya?


earthbased

earthbased Avatar

Location: By a Big Lake
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 16, 2008 - 1:27pm

I hate to disagree with people who eat the Propaganda but many have missed the fundamental problems that led to the Massacre Sunday.  Here they are:

  1 - persons thought the Internet (introduced en mass around 1995) indicated a New Era where the old rules did not apply anymore.  Greenspan said in 1997 "Irrational Exuberance!"

  2 - no one listened to "Irrational Exuberance" warning as most people invested crazily in NASDAQ (i.e. Tech Companies, and NASDAQ peeked over 5,000, where is it today?)

  3 - the FED did not consider the Stock Bubble a kind of inflation so it did not raise Interest Rates to prick the small bubble.  (note 1-3 happened under Clinton)  The Bubble continue to inflate to magnificent size!

  4 - shortly after GWB came to office the stock market crashed and 9/11 happened.

  5 - the FED cut interests rates to basically 0 and kept these rates in place for way too long, primarily to bail out Wall Street.

  6 - the people that caused 2 above then switched their money into real estate and started to flip houses like stocks!

  7- Wall Street (who is now sending most of it buy-off money to Obama and his cronies) saw 6 above and decided they could create a shell game buy bundling mortgages into a debt object and then selling bonds based of these debt objects (aka as CDO's) to unsophisticated investors who believed the bogus AAA rating from S&P, Moody's, and Fitch.  (Note that the credit rating agencies get their rating fees from the companies oftening the CDO bonds!  No conflict of interest there!)

  8 - The people enjoyed the cocaine-fueld party until skeptical people like David Einhorn started to short the stocks of the Wall Street Geniuses.

  9 - Over time Mr Einhorn gained more listeners and others started to question leverage more than 30!  And what about those off balance sheet SIV's?

  10 -  Eventually all parties come to an end.  This time the market punished bad behavior on 9/14/08 aka Massacre Sunday.

Notes: none this real estate crazyness would have been possible without the GSE's (Government Supported Enterprises) known as Freddie and Fannie, the darlings of Congress.

Outcome: politicians use this chapter of human crazyness to position to get elected or stay in office using Propaganda.  The people that know what happened start plans to move out of the USA if too much sh&t collects on the fan.

hippiechick

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Location: topsy turvy land
Gender: Female


Posted: Sep 15, 2008 - 1:43pm

NEW YORK — A stunning makeover of the Wall Street landscape sent stocks falling precipitously Monday, with the Dow Jones industrials sliding 500 points in their worst point drop since the September 2001 terrorist attacks. Investors reacted badly to a shakeup of the financial industry that took out two storied names: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co.

Stocks also posted big losses in markets across much of the globe as investors absorbed Lehman's bankruptcy filing and what was essentially a forced sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America for $50 billion in stock. While those companies' situations had reached some resolution, the market remained anxious about American International Group Inc., which is seeking emergency funding to shore up its balance sheet. A faltering of the world's largest insurance company likely would have financial implications far beyond that of Lehman, the largest U.S. bankruptcy.

The swift developments that took place Sunday are the biggest yet in the 14-month-old credit crises that stems from now toxic subprime mortgage debt. For the first part of Monday's trading, the market was falling, but in a largely orderly fashion as investors seemed to draw some relief from the resolution of Lehman's problems.

But as the session wore on, and there was no word about AIG, the market's suffered another bout of fear that the ongoing credit crisis will continue to devastate the financial sector, and selling accelerated in the final hour.

Investors are worried that trouble at AIG and the bankruptcy filing by Lehman, felled by $60 billion in bad debt and a dearth of investor confidence, will touch off another series of troubles for banks and financial institutions that may be forced to further write down the value of their own debt assets. Wall Street had been hopeful six months ago that the collapse of Bear Stearns would mark the darkest day of the credit crisis.

AIG's troubles a week after its stock dropped 45 percent are worrisome for some investors because of the company's enormous balance sheet and the risks that troubles with that companies finances could spill over to the companies with which it does business. AIG, one of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow industrials, fell $6.93, or 57 percent, to $5.21 Monday as investors worried that it would be the subject of downgrades from credit ratings agencies.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow fell 504.48, or 4.42 percent, to 10,917.51, moving below the 11,000 mark for the first time since mid-July. It was the worst point drop for the Dow since it lost 684.81 on Sept. 17, 2001, the first day of trading after the terror attacks. It was also the sixth-largest point drop in the Dow, just behind the 508.00 it suffered in the October 1987 crash.

Broader stock indicators also fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index declined 58.74, or 4.69 percent, to 1,192.96, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 81.36, or 3.60 percent, to 2,179.91.

The S&P 500 broke through the 1,200.44 trading low seen in mid-July, a key level traders watch. Much of the trading day until about the last hour had been orderly because the market had tested another key level early in the session and managed to stay above it. But the eventual drift lower prompted some investors to hit the "sell" button.


MonkeyPod

MonkeyPod Avatar

Location: Florida
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 15, 2008 - 10:45am

BUMP

 
MonkeyPod wrote:

Well ya know we live in a socalist society, right?  That wouldn't have happened if there were no regulations.

/(effects of THC)

 

hippiechick

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Location: topsy turvy land
Gender: Female


Posted: Sep 15, 2008 - 10:44am

 owld_skipper wrote:
News Flash!

The market meltdown is all the fault of .... wait for it.....   THE DEMOCRATS!!

So say several key republican spokes-persons that I have been watching over the past 30 minutes.

 
Insane, isn't it?

(former member)

(former member) Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 15, 2008 - 10:34am

News Flash!

The market meltdown is all the fault of .... wait for it.....   THE DEMOCRATS!!

So say several key republican spokes-persons that I have been watching over the past 30 minutes.
dionysius

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Location: The People's Republic of Austin
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 15, 2008 - 10:00am

 hippiechick wrote:
The only good news: A bad economy might tend to shift voters to Obama.

 

I'd hate to win that way. But McCain's economic plans are essentially no different from the Bush administration's, so the more this is pointed out, the more information voters have. Obama will bring tax relief to a broader swath of American households, and will bring fairness and equity back into the process as well. Investment in infrastructure, education, green building and manufacturing, etc. will do nothing but good. A fair trade rather than unregulated "free" trade policy abroad. People need to know these things before they vote!


phineas

phineas Avatar



Posted: Sep 15, 2008 - 9:58am

 smokinsean wrote:

...I miss Chretien...
 
He had a style...


MonkeyPod

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Location: Florida
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 15, 2008 - 9:56am

hippiechick wrote:
The only good news: A bad economy might tend to shift voters to Obama.


Most regular voters have already decided for who they plan to cast their vote this Fall. It's the energy of the campaigners to get non-regular voters to register and vote that will make the difference. If their job is on the line then they'll probably vote for the person they think will save it.

hippiechick

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Location: topsy turvy land
Gender: Female


Posted: Sep 15, 2008 - 9:52am

The only good news: A bad economy might tend to shift voters to Obama.
Sean-E-Sean

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Location: Tk’emlúps te Secwépemc


Posted: Sep 15, 2008 - 9:00am

 phineas wrote:
From the Globe and Mail — reactions:

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper

"My own belief is if we were going to have some kind of big crash or recession, we probably would have had it by now."

Earth to Steve, earth to Steve... And he's headed for a majority up here?



 
...I miss Chretien...

phineas

phineas Avatar



Posted: Sep 15, 2008 - 8:57am

From the Globe and Mail — reactions:

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper

"My own belief is if we were going to have some kind of big crash or recession, we probably would have had it by now."

Earth to Steve, earth to Steve... And he's headed for a majority up here?


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