A Dire Warning About the End of Human Civilization
Stabilizing at 1.5 degrees C raise is no longer possible, and once we get to 2 C (tipping point), it won't be possible to avoid going to 3 C. The carbon sinks are slowing down (ocean 5%, land 15%).
The Great Siberian Thaw Permafrost contains microbes, mammoths, and twice as much carbon as Earthâs atmosphere. What happens when it starts to melt?
Over thousands of years, the frozen earth swallowed up all manner of organic material, from tree stumps to woolly mammoths. As the permafrost thaws, microbes in the soil awaken and begin to feast on the defrosting biomass. Itâs a funky, organic process, akin to unplugging your freezer and leaving the door open, only to return a day later to see that the chicken breasts in the back have begun to rot. In the case of permafrost, this microbial digestion releases a constant belch of carbon dioxide and methane. Scientific models suggest that the permafrost contains one and a half trillion tons of carbon, twice as much as is currently held in Earthâs atmosphere.
Trofim Maximov, a scientist who studies permafrostâs contribution to climate change, was seated next to me in the Antonov, shouting directions to the pilot in the cockpit. Once a month, Maximov charters the plane in order to measure the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere above Yakutia. He described the thawing permafrost as a kind of feedback loop: the release of greenhouse gases causes warmer temperatures, which, in turn, melt the permafrost further. âItâs a natural process,â he told me. âWhich means that, unlike purely anthropogenic processesââsay, emissions from factories or automobilesââonce it starts, you canât really stop it.â
I remember reading about permafrost in high school science class and remember clearly the information about the danger the planet would be in if the permafrost were to ever thaw. Never thought I'd see the day. At least not until Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth" was published.
The Great Siberian Thaw Permafrost contains microbes, mammoths, and twice as much carbon as Earthâs atmosphere. What happens when it starts to melt?
Over thousands of years, the frozen earth swallowed up all manner of organic material, from tree stumps to woolly mammoths. As the permafrost thaws, microbes in the soil awaken and begin to feast on the defrosting biomass. Itâs a funky, organic process, akin to unplugging your freezer and leaving the door open, only to return a day later to see that the chicken breasts in the back have begun to rot. In the case of permafrost, this microbial digestion releases a constant belch of carbon dioxide and methane. Scientific models suggest that the permafrost contains one and a half trillion tons of carbon, twice as much as is currently held in Earthâs atmosphere.
Trofim Maximov, a scientist who studies permafrostâs contribution to climate change, was seated next to me in the Antonov, shouting directions to the pilot in the cockpit. Once a month, Maximov charters the plane in order to measure the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere above Yakutia. He described the thawing permafrost as a kind of feedback loop: the release of greenhouse gases causes warmer temperatures, which, in turn, melt the permafrost further. âItâs a natural process,â he told me. âWhich means that, unlike purely anthropogenic processesââsay, emissions from factories or automobilesââonce it starts, you canât really stop it.â
Gates: Well, in providing energy weâve had coal-mining accidents, natural gas pipelines blow up, you know, particulates causing bad health. And yes, nuclear, to get that to be used broadly, we need a completely new generation where itâs inherently safe because thereâs no high pressurant. So that fourth-generation, designed-from-scratch nuclear is what a company called TerraPower is working on, and the demo plant thatâs been done will prove out whether that can work or not.
Brancaccio: And you have an interest in that. Some of these newer approaches to generating nuclear power require enriched fuel, enriched uranium, and that worries people worried about the fuel getting into the wrong hands around the world.
Gates: Thatâs right. You always want to make sure that itâs never a source of weapons material. Eventually, you could move away from enriched uranium and just breed in the reactor itself. But, yes, nuclear has lots of challenges, but so does every other path. And because climate change is so important, we need to pursue many paths to make sure we actually get a solution because 30 years is a very short period of time.
Brancaccio: And to be clear, you actually have an interest in a company, TerraPower, that is trying to do work in this area with a new generation of nuclear power.
Bill Gates: Thatâs right. Because of my interest in climate, I got that going as a potential solution. You know, I donât know that it will work, or even if it works that the public will accept it. But, you know, along with investing in many storage companies, raising the odds of solving climate is worth taking big risks if it proves out to be super-, supersafe.
Brancaccio: Can I ask why your goal â you make it very clear in the book â why is your goal net zero? I mean, you must have told your people a million times over the years, âThe perfect is the enemy of the good.â But you want zero, as in none, nada, zip. Wouldnât phasing down our carbon dioxide and carbon production be more reasonable than setting success at zero?
Gates: If you donât mind all the corals dying and Miami Beach disappearing and island countries being underwater and farmers near the equator starving and trying to migrate up to northern latitudes. You know, CO2 stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years. So if you have positive emissions, youâre driving the temperature up on an ongoing basis. And thatâs more crop failures, more days humans canât go outside. It gets pretty extreme, and those natural ecosystems wonât come back.
Gates: Well, in providing energy weâve had coal-mining accidents, natural gas pipelines blow up, you know, particulates causing bad health. And yes, nuclear, to get that to be used broadly, we need a completely new generation where itâs inherently safe because thereâs no high pressurant. So that fourth-generation, designed-from-scratch nuclear is what a company called TerraPower is working on, and the demo plant thatâs been done will prove out whether that can work or not.
Brancaccio: And you have an interest in that. Some of these newer approaches to generating nuclear power require enriched fuel, enriched uranium, and that worries people worried about the fuel getting into the wrong hands around the world.
Gates: Thatâs right. You always want to make sure that itâs never a source of weapons material. Eventually, you could move away from enriched uranium and just breed in the reactor itself. But, yes, nuclear has lots of challenges, but so does every other path. And because climate change is so important, we need to pursue many paths to make sure we actually get a solution because 30 years is a very short period of time.
Brancaccio: And to be clear, you actually have an interest in a company, TerraPower, that is trying to do work in this area with a new generation of nuclear power.
Bill Gates: Thatâs right. Because of my interest in climate, I got that going as a potential solution. You know, I donât know that it will work, or even if it works that the public will accept it. But, you know, along with investing in many storage companies, raising the odds of solving climate is worth taking big risks if it proves out to be super-, supersafe.
Brancaccio: Can I ask why your goal â you make it very clear in the book â why is your goal net zero? I mean, you must have told your people a million times over the years, âThe perfect is the enemy of the good.â But you want zero, as in none, nada, zip. Wouldnât phasing down our carbon dioxide and carbon production be more reasonable than setting success at zero?
Gates: If you donât mind all the corals dying and Miami Beach disappearing and island countries being underwater and farmers near the equator starving and trying to migrate up to northern latitudes. You know, CO2 stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years. So if you have positive emissions, youâre driving the temperature up on an ongoing basis. And thatâs more crop failures, more days humans canât go outside. It gets pretty extreme, and those natural ecosystems wonât come back.
Postcards From a World on Fire Politicians have argued. The summits have come and gone. But the truth is that climate change is already upon us. This is Times Opinionâs tour of how climate change has begun reshaping reality in the 193 member states of the United Nations, in ways big and small.
