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A motivational quote - kurtster - Jan 17, 2021 - 11:41am
 
Regarding dogs - rhahl - Jan 17, 2021 - 11:10am
 
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Social Media Are Changing Everything - black321 - Jan 17, 2021 - 7:37am
 
Today in History - Red_Dragon - Jan 17, 2021 - 7:36am
 
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Breaking News - kurtster - Jan 16, 2021 - 4:37pm
 
Automotive Lust - KurtfromLaQuinta - Jan 16, 2021 - 4:28pm
 
Trump Lies - ScottN - Jan 16, 2021 - 12:05pm
 
Outstanding Covers - R_P - Jan 16, 2021 - 11:48am
 
What Are You Going To Do Today? - miamizsun - Jan 16, 2021 - 5:54am
 
Vocabulary Quiz - rhahl - Jan 16, 2021 - 5:31am
 
Flim Festivals on Now - rhahl - Jan 16, 2021 - 3:59am
 
2020 Elections - haresfur - Jan 15, 2021 - 8:44pm
 
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Our tolerance for opposing views - Isabeau - Jan 15, 2021 - 2:14pm
 
What is the meaning of this? - Isabeau - Jan 15, 2021 - 2:00pm
 
Climate Change - R_P - Jan 15, 2021 - 12:47pm
 
what the hell, miamizsun? - oldviolin - Jan 15, 2021 - 10:20am
 
What the hell OV? - miamizsun - Jan 15, 2021 - 9:51am
 
Physics questions - oldviolin - Jan 15, 2021 - 8:56am
 
Classical Music - rhahl - Jan 15, 2021 - 6:48am
 
Capitalism and Consumerism... now what? - miamizsun - Jan 15, 2021 - 6:10am
 
RightWingNutZ - Red_Dragon - Jan 15, 2021 - 5:55am
 
Back to the 10's - rhahl - Jan 15, 2021 - 5:37am
 
Museum Of Bad Album Covers - Proclivities - Jan 15, 2021 - 4:58am
 
Twitter's finest moment - Jiggz - Jan 15, 2021 - 1:28am
 
Country Up The Bumpkin - oldviolin - Jan 14, 2021 - 8:14pm
 
What The Hell Buddy? - oldviolin - Jan 14, 2021 - 8:09pm
 
In My Room - oldviolin - Jan 14, 2021 - 7:58pm
 
Looting & vandalism isn't protest - R_P - Jan 14, 2021 - 5:25pm
 
Insane-looking Lawyers - rhahl - Jan 14, 2021 - 4:14pm
 
Bug Reports & Feature Requests - KurtfromLaQuinta - Jan 14, 2021 - 2:54pm
 
Joe Biden - black321 - Jan 14, 2021 - 2:07pm
 
Race in America - sirdroseph - Jan 14, 2021 - 12:32pm
 
New Music - R_P - Jan 14, 2021 - 12:11pm
 
hallucinogenic drugs - sirdroseph - Jan 14, 2021 - 11:09am
 
Back to the 90's - rgio - Jan 14, 2021 - 7:47am
 
Concept Albums - oldviolin - Jan 14, 2021 - 7:34am
 
Democratic Party - kurtster - Jan 14, 2021 - 6:17am
 
Biden Crime Family - westslope - Jan 13, 2021 - 6:59pm
 
2 questions. - miamizsun - Jan 13, 2021 - 5:30pm
 
Australia has Disappeared - haresfur - Jan 13, 2021 - 5:12pm
 
Impeachment Time: - R_P - Jan 13, 2021 - 2:49pm
 
Back to the 60's - kcar - Jan 13, 2021 - 2:45pm
 
Oh, The Stupidity - R_P - Jan 13, 2021 - 2:16pm
 
Know your memes - black321 - Jan 13, 2021 - 12:02pm
 
Republican Party - miamizsun - Jan 13, 2021 - 10:53am
 
The Global War on Terror - westslope - Jan 13, 2021 - 9:36am
 
Great guitar faces - yuel - Jan 13, 2021 - 6:37am
 
DQ (as in 'Daily Quote') - miamizsun - Jan 13, 2021 - 4:41am
 
• • • Poopoo • • • - miamizsun - Jan 13, 2021 - 4:15am
 
Those Lovable Policemen - haresfur - Jan 12, 2021 - 5:26pm
 
Military Matters - Ohmsen - Jan 12, 2021 - 2:00pm
 
Dear Retail Fashion Industry - Ohmsen - Jan 12, 2021 - 1:30pm
 
Index » Radio Paradise/General » General Discussion » 2020 Elections Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 118, 119, 120  Next
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rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 6, 2021 - 5:52am



 westslope wrote:


 rgio wrote:


 westslope wrote:
Vacuous prediction:   The Republicans win at least one Senate seat.

If, and I mean, truly if, the Democrats sweep both seats, then I would expect markets to skyrocket higher after definitive results are announced.  
 
Because the Biden tax plan can be implemented more broadly and quickly, or because the Dems will give out more money (starting with the $2,000 relief checks)?

Why do you expect higher markets? 

 
For a bunch of reasons.   

+ Historic.  Markets like Democratic presidents more than Republican presidents.  Stylized fact with some support in peer-reviewed journals.

+  The out-going president has been an economic disaster on numerous fronts.   Bottom-line is that conflict is not good for business.  Markets might like the Marxist Keynesian tax cuts for a short period but now in the context of the pandemic it looks so careless, so reckless.  

+  Trump is an atrocious risk manager when it comes to broad social, national, economic, security risks.  Once the perception settles in that he threatens longer-term stability and growth, anybody will look better than Trump.  Not meaning to demean the very real talents and useful experience of Joe Biden.

+  A cyber buddy once said that Biden is the pussycat of American politics.  This guy is the deal maker.  He's the real deal.   Calm, order, stability, people sitting down, this is what the street needs and I believe wants at this point.

+  There is broad consensus among economists that fiscal spending should go on a war-like footing to cope with the pandemic.    Cutting corners for some high-risk short-term growth is just plain dangerous.  

+  More federal government spending, the more likely the US dollar will continue to decline in relative value.   That is a good thing for US exporters and their workers.  Recall that market values are measured in US dollars.  

Moreover, I fully expect A Democratic sweep to energize energy markets, in particular oil markets.   In resource markets, 'less' is always 'more'.  If Biden puts some northern and offshore back into no-exploitation reserves, bans fracking on federal lands (where in passing fracking would least impact people....), restrict flaring, production growth will slow and consequently prices should increase.

That would be positive for the US oil&gas sector where financial discipline and honesty has been sorely lacking.    This sector may have averaged negative risk-adjusted returns to capital over the past decade.  Crazy.

+  In passing, it is odd how the USA is set up to allow municipalities and states to risk manage public finances.  Huh?   Never mind.  In the meantime, many could use a cash injection.  A Democratic-controlled Senate would make sure that would happen.  It is critical to keep public workers on the payroll and have the flexibility to hire more specialists as required.



 
If we're using history as a proxy, then be careful about over-exuberance following a pandemic.

Trump's weaknesses have resulted in the consolidation of industries and financial windfalls for the largest players (represented in the Dow/Nasdaq).  The US has been printing money, and as you (sorta) point out, states and municipal governments have been running at a deficit to cover COVID costs and lost revenues (increasing gas taxes to cover lost toll revenue for example). The stock markets are up in 2020 because of the pandemic, not in spite of it.  Higher government spending comes from higher taxes, and increasing taxes never drives the stock market higher.

Is prior Democratic Presidency financial performance causation or correlation?  It appears very likely the Senate will flip, and futures are flat.

In 3 years, I'm willing to bet that all you'll hear from the Republican candidates is how much better the markets did under Trump than Biden.  Joe's inheriting a bubble, not a rocketship.

westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Jan 6, 2021 - 5:24am



 rgio wrote:


 westslope wrote:
Vacuous prediction:   The Republicans win at least one Senate seat.

If, and I mean, truly if, the Democrats sweep both seats, then I would expect markets to skyrocket higher after definitive results are announced.  
 
Because the Biden tax plan can be implemented more broadly and quickly, or because the Dems will give out more money (starting with the $2,000 relief checks)?

Why do you expect higher markets? 

 
For a bunch of reasons.   

+ Historic.  Markets like Democratic presidents more than Republican presidents.  Stylized fact with some support in peer-reviewed journals.

+  The out-going president has been an economic disaster on numerous fronts.   Bottom-line is that conflict is not good for business.  Markets might like the Marxist Keynesian tax cuts for a short period but now in the context of the pandemic it looks so careless, so reckless.  

+  Trump is an atrocious risk manager when it comes to broad social, national, economic, security risks.  Once the perception settles in that he threatens longer-term stability and growth, anybody will look better than Trump.  Not meaning to demean the very real talents and useful experience of Joe Biden.

+  A cyber buddy once said that Biden is the pussycat of American politics.  This guy is the deal maker.  He's the real deal.   Calm, order, stability, people sitting down, this is what the street needs and I believe wants at this point.

+  There is broad consensus among economists that fiscal spending should go on a war-like footing to cope with the pandemic.    Cutting corners for some high-risk short-term growth is just plain dangerous.  

+  More federal government spending, the more likely the US dollar will continue to decline in relative value.   That is a good thing for US exporters and their workers.  Recall that market values are measured in US dollars.  

Moreover, I fully expect A Democratic sweep to energize energy markets, in particular oil markets.   In resource markets, 'less' is always 'more'.  If Biden puts some northern and offshore back into no-exploitation reserves, bans fracking on federal lands (where in passing fracking would least impact people....), restrict flaring, production growth will slow and consequently prices should increase.

That would be positive for the US oil&gas sector where financial discipline and honesty has been sorely lacking.    This sector may have averaged negative risk-adjusted returns to capital over the past decade.  Crazy.

+  In passing, it is odd how the USA is set up to allow municipalities and states to risk manage public finances.  Huh?   Never mind.  In the meantime, many could use a cash injection.  A Democratic-controlled Senate would make sure that would happen.  It is critical to keep public workers on the payroll and have the flexibility to hire more specialists as required.



Steely_D

Steely_D Avatar

Location: Biscayne Bay
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 5, 2021 - 10:52pm



 haresfur wrote:


 

 
Historically, democrats have been better for business

 

With the exception of Reagan and Carter, the economy in general shows greater strides/improvement under democrats. (Because the GOP screw it up so badly before they hand it off.)
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Jan 5, 2021 - 8:24pm

Ossoff now with a 94 percent chance to win. The fundamental G.O.P. problem: Its vote is basically exhausted. Ossoff is favored to win the remaining vote by 36 points (he needs to win by 26 to prevail).

See the forecast

Our estimates show Warnock with a greater than 95 percent chance to win. Loeffler has largely exhausted her vote, under reasonable assumptions.

(...)

“If they win, I’ll get no credit,” Trump predicted of Republicans last night. “If they lose, they’re gonna blame Trump.” Given Georgia’s political shift in the Trump era, he’s probably onto something.

haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 5, 2021 - 6:59pm



 rgio wrote:


 westslope wrote:
Vacuous prediction:   The Republicans win at least one Senate seat.

If, and I mean, truly if, the Democrats sweep both seats, then I would expect markets to skyrocket higher after definitive results are announced.  
 
Because the Biden tax plan can be implemented more broadly and quickly, or because the Dems will give out more money (starting with the $2,000 relief checks)?

Why do you expect higher markets? 

 
Historically, democrats have been better for business

rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 5, 2021 - 6:25pm



 westslope wrote:
Vacuous prediction:   The Republicans win at least one Senate seat.

If, and I mean, truly if, the Democrats sweep both seats, then I would expect markets to skyrocket higher after definitive results are announced.  
 
Because the Biden tax plan can be implemented more broadly and quickly, or because the Dems will give out more money (starting with the $2,000 relief checks)?

Why do you expect higher markets? 

R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Jan 5, 2021 - 6:10pm

 westslope wrote:
Apparently Democrats are preparing garlands with much love to gift out-going President Trump; he has been so helpful.   I would not be surprised if some Republicans start saying that Trump was working for the Democrats all along.  

A radical agenda is possible with control of the Senate.  
 
An appropriate legacy for the man who craves wins, along with the single term.
westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Jan 5, 2021 - 5:40pm

Vacuous prediction:   The Republicans win at least one Senate seat.

If, and I mean, truly if, the Democrats sweep both seats, then I would expect markets to skyrocket higher after definitive results are announced.  
westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Jan 5, 2021 - 5:36pm

Early results show the Democratic candidates in the lead in the Georgia Senate seat runoffs.  40% of votes counted.  Warnock +9, Ossoff +8

https://www.nytimes.com/intera...

Apparently Democrats are preparing garlands with much love to gift out-going President Trump; he has been so helpful.   I would not be surprised if some Republicans start saying that Trump was working for the Democrats all along.  

A radical agenda is possible with control of the Senate.  
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Jan 5, 2021 - 3:03pm

Trump Still Says He Won. What Happens Next?
A republic works only when the losers of elections accept the results and the legitimacy of their opponents.
The Republican effort to derail Congress’s electoral vote count on Wednesday will fail, and President-elect Joe Biden will be sworn in at noon on Jan. 20, as the Constitution commands. What will persist, however, is an existential crisis: What to do about a political party that is no longer committed to representative democracy?

(...)

The first time, Republicans in Congress were more than happy to let him get away with it — all Senate Republicans but one voted to acquit Mr. Trump of the two articles of impeachment approved by the House of Representatives. Susan Collins of Maine defended her not guilty vote by claiming that the president had learned “a pretty big lesson.” She pointed out that his extortion effort had earned him rebukes from both Democrats and Republicans. “I believe that he will be much more cautious in the future,” she said.

Ms. Collins was right about the first part: Mr. Trump did learn a pretty big lesson. He learned that he can break the law and undermine democracy with impunity. He learned that he can do the political equivalent of shooting someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue, and he won’t lose the support of Republicans. So, naturally, he pulled the trigger again.

R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Jan 5, 2021 - 2:02pm

Another contest is underway — between reality and fantasy, as Trump seeks to sow doubts about Georgia’s election system. State officials are rebutting his charges in real time.
westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Jan 4, 2021 - 1:37pm



 rgio wrote:


 kurtster wrote:

Nope, no fraud.  No evidence, anywhere.  That is what the New York Times has told us, over and over again.
 
Kurt, this isn't evidence...it's politically motivated theory.

.....

 
rgio, 

Be nice to the term 'theory'.     Even if most people strictly speaking mean 'hypothesis' when they use the word 'theory'.  

These accusations of election fraud are not 'theory', they are baseless assertions.  

Apparently somebody who was both competent and famous once said:  

"Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth"



kcar

kcar Avatar



Posted: Jan 3, 2021 - 3:19pm



 buddy wrote:
Whatever else may be posted here at this point, the 2020 Elections were over weeks ago.  All that's happening until the inauguration is the GOP scramble as to who inherits the insanity that has become of what was once an honorable political party. My money is on Ted Cruz, who is only outdone by Trump himself for a total lack of integrity & morality.
 

Cruz has an extraordinary talent for alienating people, though. He is openly the most hated Senator within the chamber. I doubt he'll be able to win the Trump base over as well. People like/love Trump because he's blunt, vicious and self-assured. He can lie all day and his base never calls him on it. Cruz doesn't have that Reality Distortion Bubble or the Teflon skin. 

Tom Cotton, Senator of Arkansas, may be the next prick up. 
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Jan 3, 2021 - 3:17pm

 buddy wrote:
Whatever else may be posted here at this point, the 2020 Elections were over weeks ago. (...)
The presidential election process follows a typical cycle:
  • Spring of the year before an election – Candidates announce their intentions to run.
  • Summer of the year before an election through spring of the election year – Primary and caucus debates take place.
  • January to June of election year – States and parties hold primaries and caucuses.
  • July to early September – Parties hold nominating conventions to choose their candidates.
  • September and October – Candidates participate in presidential debates.
  • Early November – Election Day
  • December – Electors cast their votes in the Electoral College.
  • Early January of the next calendar year – Congress counts the electoral votes.
  • January 20 – Inauguration Day

katzendogs

katzendogs Avatar

Location: Pasadena ,Texas
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 3, 2021 - 3:16pm

 buddy wrote:
Whatever else may be posted here at this point, the 2020 Elections were over weeks ago.  All that's happening until the inauguration is the GOP scramble as to who inherits the insanity that has become of what was once an honorable political party. My money is on Ted Cruz, who is only outdone by Trump himself for a total lack of integrity & morality.
 
Hopefully it will get him the hell out of Texas.
haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 3, 2021 - 3:11pm



 buddy wrote:
Whatever else may be posted here at this point, the 2020 Elections were over weeks ago.  All that's happening until the inauguration is the GOP scramble as to who inherits the insanity that has become of what was once an honorable political party. My money is on Ted Cruz, who is only outdone by Trump himself for a total lack of integrity & morality.
 
On the bright side, Cruz is more than willing to flip-flop on his own bullshit so maybe he will flop to the marginally better

haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 3, 2021 - 2:15pm



 R_P wrote:
 
I wish he had drawn trump out to clarify the request. Like, "So you want me to make up some ballots to count, right?"

R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Jan 3, 2021 - 1:18pm

‘I just want to find 11,780 votes’:
In extraordinary hour-long call, Trump pressures Georgia secretary of state to recalculate the vote in his favor

Reactions to leaked Trump call seeking to overturn Georgia vote
islander

islander Avatar

Location: Seattle
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 2, 2021 - 8:18pm



 haresfur wrote:


 islander wrote:


 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 buddy wrote:

18 Days


 

Irrational exuberance.
 

Depends on your expectations.
 

Irrational satisfaction?
 

I can't get no
haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 2, 2021 - 8:16pm



 islander wrote:


 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 buddy wrote:

18 Days


 

Irrational exuberance.
 

Depends on your expectations.
 

Irrational satisfaction?
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