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Index » Internet/Computer » The Web » Economix Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 198, 199, 200  Next
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miamizsun

miamizsun Avatar

Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: May 21, 2020 - 10:00am

 Proclivities wrote:


 miamizsun wrote:


{#Wave}

...there is a very popular belief that the world is going to hell in a hand basket (after watching the news, i think it is the default position)

doom sells and bad news leads for sure, this is not to say that we do not have some huge challenges (we do and we always will)


...
just be prepared for some push back if you point good news out
{#Umbrella}
 
Of course there are always huge and sometimes terrifying challenges, and these immediate ones are very frightening, especially with the uncertainty, but yes, the old "hell-in-a-handbasket" or the "end-is-near" belief is a constant - at least throughout most of the 20th Century.  Think of what people lamented about during each decade.  Pessimism, fatalism, and nihilism are always popular poses - they can make one seem all-knowing, distant, and cool.

 
man i just got some super spiffy sneakers in the mail (really)

which way to the mothership?
rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: May 21, 2020 - 8:27am



 black321 wrote:
2+ months into covid and another 2M jobless claims this week, total over 38M filed.
Unemployment likely now over 20%.
US expected to borrow over $4.5T this year.
State deficits ballooning
Fed balance sheet over $6T, and to swell to over $10T by FYE
1/3 of main street retail dont expect to reopen
Stock market recovering nicely....boosted by big tech and other large caps that not only will survive covid but thrive
Bond markets, which better reflect the real economy, still with historical low rates...10 year bond still below 1%, indicating rates expected to remain low as the economy struggles at least through 2021

 
But I did save 15% on car insurance this month!

Good thing we were only running at $1Trillion deficit/year during the "Greatest Economy Ever".   {/snark}

Now the Democrats are going to have to raise taxes following the Republican "blue light specials"...and in a few years they'll be back to complaining we need a balanced budget and lower taxes.    Round and round......

black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: May 21, 2020 - 8:12am

2+ months into covid and another 2M jobless claims this week, total over 38M filed.
Unemployment likely now over 20%.
US expected to borrow over $4.5T this year.
State deficits ballooning
Fed balance sheet over $6T, and to swell to over $10T by FYE
1/3 of main street retail dont expect to reopen
Stock market recovering nicely....boosted by big tech and other large caps that not only will survive covid but thrive
Bond markets, which better reflect the real economy, still with historical low rates...10 year bond still below 1%, indicating rates expected to remain low as the economy struggles at least through 2021

Proclivities

Proclivities Avatar

Location: Paris of the Piedmont
Gender: Male


Posted: May 6, 2020 - 12:11pm



 miamizsun wrote:


{#Wave}


...there is a very popular belief that the world is going to hell in a hand basket (after watching the news, i think it is the default position)

doom sells and bad news leads for sure, this is not to say that we do not have some huge challenges (we do and we always will)


...
just be prepared for some push back if you point good news out
{#Umbrella}
 
Of course there are always huge and sometimes terrifying challenges, and these immediate ones are very frightening, especially with the uncertainty, but yes, the old "hell-in-a-handbasket" or the "end-is-near" belief is a constant - at least throughout most of the 20th Century.  Think of what people lamented about during each decade.  Pessimism, fatalism, and nihilism are always popular poses - they can make one seem all-knowing, distant, and cool.

sirdroseph

sirdroseph Avatar

Location: Yes
Gender: Male


Posted: May 6, 2020 - 9:56am

 miamizsun wrote:


{#Wave}

haresfur's instructor is correct (basic property/human rights with access to energy, technology increases production/education = women coming out of the house into careers)

or something similar

there is a very popular belief that the world is going to hell in a hand basket (after watching the news, i think it is the default position)

doom sells and bad news leads for sure, this is not to say that we do not have some huge challenges (we do and we always will)

however there is quite a bit of measurable human progress

have a look at our world in data (like hans rosling and steven pinker among others have pointed this out)

just be prepared for some push back if you point good news out
{#Umbrella}
 
We don't take kindly to good news round here.  Now, now Skeeter settle down.{#Cowboy}
miamizsun

miamizsun Avatar

Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: May 6, 2020 - 9:29am

 cc_rider wrote:


 haresfur wrote:

for what it's worth, my sociology prof argued the reverse. Get people into a secure economic situation and they will limit their reproduction.
 
 Unfortunately the number of people/families in secure situations, all over the world, has dropped considerably. Forget COVID-19, it's been happening for decades.
c.

 

{#Wave}

haresfur's instructor is correct (basic property/human rights with access to energy, technology increases production/education = women coming out of the house into careers)

or something similar

there is a very popular belief that the world is going to hell in a hand basket (after watching the news, i think it is the default position)

doom sells and bad news leads for sure, this is not to say that we do not have some huge challenges (we do and we always will)

however there is quite a bit of measurable human progress

have a look at our world in data (like hans rosling and steven pinker among others have pointed this out)

just be prepared for some push back if you point good news out
{#Umbrella}
cc_rider

cc_rider Avatar

Location: Bastrop
Gender: Male


Posted: May 6, 2020 - 8:44am



 haresfur wrote:


 westslope wrote:


 

for what it's worth, my sociology prof argued the reverse. Get people into a secure economic situation and they will limit their reproduction. I think you need access to birth control, abortion, health care, and aged care along with economic security. If the one child program was an aspirational policy, not a rule, it would be ok.

Overall, I believe there is less misrepresentation of the crisis in China than there is in the USA.
 
That theory has well-established empirical evidence to back it up. Unfortunately the number of people/families in secure situations, all over the world, has dropped considerably. Forget COVID-19, it's been happening for decades.
c.

black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: May 5, 2020 - 12:01pm



 kurtster wrote:

The US Treasury is set to borrow about $3 trillion dollars between now and July.

We'll have to see how much China, and anyone else for that matter, is willing to pony up towards that.
 

at less than 1%...but it will be ok, the fed will step in and buy all you can print.
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: May 5, 2020 - 8:26am

 Lazy8 wrote:

In the past we were able to borrow the money we squandered, then borrow more to pay it back. Mostly from China.

But China's got problems of its own right now. Uncle Sugar is on his own.
 
The US Treasury is set to borrow about $3 trillion dollars between now and July.

We'll have to see how much China, and anyone else for that matter, is willing to pony up towards that.
Lazy8

Lazy8 Avatar

Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
Gender: Male


Posted: May 5, 2020 - 7:34am

black321 wrote:
they said that in 2008, but this time they may be right? I think it has less to do with central bank actions, and more with structural changes to economies  that will add costs, that must be passed on to the consumer- less globalization, more domestic production of essential inventories, less focus on efficiencies (just-in-time inventory), permanent increases in labor costs...

In the past we were able to borrow the money we squandered, then borrow more to pay it back. Mostly from China.

But China's got problems of its own right now. Uncle Sugar is on his own.
haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: May 4, 2020 - 4:46pm



 westslope wrote:


 black321 wrote:
.......
 
You mean to say a communist/socialist state, with a history of restricting access to free press, assembly, religion, reproduction rights...was effectively able to round up its citizens, while continuing to misrepresent the extent of the disease?  Then yes, I agree.  

I'm not some idiot conservative talking head calling this the China virus....but please, enough with the praise for how China helped the rest of the world.  

 

The one-child program was indeed draconian but it helped bring millions of Chinese out of poverty.  

Throughout the developing world including Mexico and the Central American republics, any countries and entire regions are in the midst of a Neo-Malthusian crisis where fast demographic rates have contributed to a situation where folks have eaten themselves out of house and home.    That explains in part the violence, the lack of development and the migration north.  

Perhaps El Salvador could benefit from a one-child policy?  
 

for what it's worth, my sociology prof argued the reverse. Get people into a secure economic situation and they will limit their reproduction. I think you need access to birth control, abortion, health care, and aged care along with economic security. If the one child program was an aspirational policy, not a rule, it would be ok.

Overall, I believe there is less misrepresentation of the crisis in China than there is in the USA.
westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: May 4, 2020 - 4:01pm



 black321 wrote:
.......
 
You mean to say a communist/socialist state, with a history of restricting access to free press, assembly, religion, reproduction rights...was effectively able to round up its citizens, while continuing to misrepresent the extent of the disease?  Then yes, I agree.  

I'm not some idiot conservative talking head calling this the China virus....but please, enough with the praise for how China helped the rest of the world.  

 

The one-child program was indeed draconian but it helped bring millions of Chinese out of poverty.  

Throughout the developing world including Mexico and the Central American republics, any countries and entire regions are in the midst of a Neo-Malthusian crisis where fast demographic rates have contributed to a situation where folks have eaten themselves out of house and home.    That explains in part the violence, the lack of development and the migration north.  

Perhaps El Salvador could benefit from a one-child policy?  
haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 9, 2020 - 4:42pm



 black321 wrote:


 westslope wrote:


 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:


black321 wrote: appears china did the bare minimum, in terms of 'acceptable' behavior,' to let the world know, as did the US and many others in preparing for this.

——————————


I think that assertion is unfounded. I am not saying they did everything they could either, but bare minimum is a bit harsh:  ......
 
Once China got serious, it took draconian measures that are beyond the reach of the USA.  

To be blunt, I don't think this Chinese bashing is either warranted nor does it look very pretty.  It hints at the notion that country with a per capita  income 1/4th of the US per capita income is more capable of mustering and coordinating a better response than the USA.  

Besides, if you want to worry, look at the poor, developing countries whose public health systems are but a fraction of what the Chinese enjoy.   Then look at the horrific health outcomes in the USA that make American citizens all the more vulnerable to the worst consequences of COVID-19.
 
You mean to say a communist/socialist state, with a history of restricting access to free press, assembly, religion, reproduction rights...was effectively able to round up its citizens, while continuing to misrepresent the extent of the disease?  Then yes, I agree.  

I'm not some idiot conservative talking head calling this the China virus
....but please, enough with the praise for how China helped the rest of the world.  

 
yeah, I know. we just disagree on this one

haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 9, 2020 - 4:40pm



 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:


get ready for the return of hyperinflation
 
Yeah, that's my worry because my investments are heavily skewed towards my mattress. We can only hope that the central banks have learned from the past. Oh yeah, the US republicans want to do away with the fed...

black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 9, 2020 - 1:17pm

I find  encouraging
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Apr 9, 2020 - 12:45pm

 black321 wrote:
I'm not some idiot conservative talking head calling this the China virus....but please, enough with the praise for how China helped the rest of the world. 
 
As much as you might hate it, they are helping, and the Trump Regime recognizes it...
Pompeo also announced Tuesday that the U.S. is committing an additional $225 million to overseas aid for countries affected by the virus, but that the assistance would not include personal protective equipment (PPE) because the U.S. itself is short on such critical medical gear.

The new funds come on top of an earlier $274 million committed by the U.S. for overseas aid due to the virus. The announcement also comes as China has touted its own international giving in response to the pandemic, casting itself as a global savior. The Chinese government, for example, is helping to facilitate the transfer of 1,000 ventilators to New York, one of the hardest hit states.

Some analysts
have lamented that dynamic as a “propaganda coup” for China in the face of criticism over its own internal handling of the virus. But with the U.S. in dire need of critical medical equipment from China, White House officials may feel limited in what they can say.
No more "China virus" from Pompeo's (and Trump's) mouth and some competition on the 'global savior' front...
black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 9, 2020 - 9:05am



 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

Some stories you hear are kind of scary.. developed economies GDP to fall 30% on an annualised basis in the second quarter. That's bigger than the great depression apparently.
(hearsay, not researched) 
 

yes, in 2Q...but then a normalized recession levels in second half. Whats the recovery a quick V, U or L? 
Given the way the global economy has been shut/closed by at least 1/3, one silver lining is how the markets are taking this. Or are they being irrational?
NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 9, 2020 - 8:30am

 black321 wrote:


 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:


get ready for the return of hyperinflation
 

they said that in 2008, but this time they may be right? I think it has less to do with central bank actions, and more with structural changes to economies  that will add costs, that must be passed on to the consumer- less globalization, more domestic production of essential inventories, less focus on efficiencies (just-in-time inventory), permanent increases in labor costs...
 
Some stories you hear are kind of scary.. developed economies GDP to fall 30% on an annualised basis in the second quarter. That's bigger than the great depression apparently.
(hearsay, not researched) 
black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 9, 2020 - 8:07am



 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:


get ready for the return of hyperinflation
 

they said that in 2008, but this time they may be right? I think it has less to do with central bank actions, and more with structural changes to economies  that will add costs, that must be passed on to the consumer- less globalization, more domestic production of essential inventories, less focus on efficiencies (just-in-time inventory), permanent increases in labor costs...
NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 9, 2020 - 7:36am

 islander wrote:


 black321 wrote:

Fed unveils $2.3 trillion coronavirus lending program

The Fed program will include a new fund to buy debt from banks issued to small and medium sized U.S. businesses with up to 10,000 employees and another to buy short-term notes issued by U.S. states and municipalities.

Plenty of $ getting thrown around...get in line and get some. Don't worry, we're good for it (we'll figure out how to pay for it....later on).
 

Coming soon: new 2 child policy, because one can't afford the debt we are putting on them.
 

get ready for the return of hyperinflation
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