One wonders whether one would be able to summon the bravery being shown by so many Ukrainians. I wonder.
That thought has been going through my mind this past week, too.
At the very least, I have already decided that if the cost of hydrocarbons went up due to a total embargo of Russian hydrocarbons, I would suck it up and go with it and make that sacrifice. Short of a direct military confrontation, nothing would be quicker and more effective in stopping Putin.
Edit: Should this embargo be ordered later than sooner such as within the next week at the longest before Ukraine falls, no problem, but if it is afterwards, then why TF bother, I would withdraw my support. Timing is everything for it to matter.
early morning rambling on my part just to clear my own head:
status quo:
The Russian army is rolling sluggishly onwards, smothering everything in its path.
The Ukrainian government and army are astonishingly both still intact
It appears (at least to me), the Ukrainian army are not getting anywhere near the military hardware they need to ward off the combined forces of the Russian army
Putin has gone all in (as expected) and is enjoying majority support at home for the war. His future presumably depends on a successful outcome.
Dissent has been made a crime in Russia
Most other countries have imposed massive sanctions on Russia
The global economy is taking a hit with higher prices for commodities and falling share prices.
So what happens next? Scenario 1: The Ukrainian resistance survives, gets the hardware it needs and starts scoring military successes
a. cease-fire / truce with the lines on the map redrawn, giving Russian control of a large part of Ukraine. hard to see how this would work in the current situation. maybe by holding certain cities hostage, Putin strikes a bargain, giving him the eastern half of the country.. but he doesn't look like the sort of guy who would settle for this. And if the Ukrainians were starting to score successes, it is unlikely they would make concessions. But if a truce were worked out: stalemate
If it didn't, Putin would be forced to back-down or escalate. Which could lead to: b. conventional option all-out onslaught on everything he can hit using every (conventional) weapon he has, including thermobaric bombs (already used) - the question would be, how long can he maintain this till he runs out of resources? he has a big army, recently modernised, but are his supply chains up to the task? I'm guessing no, particularly if the Russian economy is paralysed by sanctions. Politically, he'd frame this as NATO attacking Russia (á la Nazi Germany) to inspire greater domestic production but I doubt they'd pull this off if the war became protracted. Final outcome: defeat for Russia at enormous personal cost to Ukraine (already happening)
c. nuclear option he goes all out as he has threatened to do, on the assumption that the west would never have the courage to respond to nuclear with nuclear. So how would the west respond? Tit for tat? Tit for two tats? Full on conventional invasion? China would be forced to take sides - at the very least also imposing sanctions, further isolating Putin, which means he'd effectively have to go for broke.
Scenario 2: The Lindsey Graham option Change of Russian leadership. More business-friendly oligarchs take control and bring Russia back into line. Ukraine is respected as a sovereign country. Sanctions against Russia are removed. Back to business as usual. Final outcome: win win for everyone, except Putin I guess. With luck, democracy returns to Russia.
Scenario 3: The Ukrainian resistance loses the battle, Russia takes total control of Ukraine and reintegrates it into some kind of neo-Soviet dictatorship. Sanctions would remain in place, at least for a while. Europe works hard on developing its defence forces, millions of Ukrainians are effectively exiled. Over time sanctions would slip as one or the other country is lured by cheap Russian commodities. Russian nationalism rises due to opposition to the sanctions but opposition to the Russian leadership would also rise leading to greater internal tension, exacerbated by demographic change (younger people are more likely to be anti-Putin and more pro-www). How would Putin react? He'd need to be simultaneously oppressive (as he already has) to smother domestic opposition but also externally aggressive to stoke up a distraction and foster domestic support. He'd very likely look for a new war, but where? NATO would be a tall order. I'm guessing Serbia/Kosovo, something like that. Probably over time there would be a new iron curtain and Russia would do all its trade with China as well seeking allies in other places, like Africa. Economically, a loss for everyone, except for China and arms manufacturers. Militarily a win for Putin, but at what cost? Lindsey Graham option would always remain on the table as oligarchs see their fortunes crumble. Russian economy tanks. Not very rosy prospects for anyone very much and at great personal tragedy for the Ukrainians. Given that all of these options don't actually reward Putin with very much (best scenario: he stays in power but over a greatly diminished economic base), what's going on in his head?
I fear he actually does entertain dreams of some kind of global fascist regime, with him at the top, a coterie of oligarchs underneath who are all beholden to him and some kind of free trade structure underneath that. Fact is though, even in the best scenario for him, he becomes a puppet of the Chinese, dependant on them for trade. The Chinese though still need a strong USA and Europe to export to, so there is no way they'd be on the side of Russian fascist expansion.
The thinking among some U.S. and European officials is that Mr. Putin might stop the war if enough Russians protest in the streets and enough tycoons turn on him. Other U.S. officials emphasize the goals of punishment and future deterrence, saying that the carcass of the Russian economy will serve as a visible consequence of Mr. Putinâs actions and a warning for other aggressors.
That has been tried before (after WW I), and it had some unintended consequences. Expect Big Nationalism.
The French finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, has used some of the harshest language yet to articulate the mission, telling a radio program on Tuesday that Western nations were âwaging an all-out economic and financial war on Russiaâ to âcause the collapse of the Russian economy.â He later said he regretted his words.
A spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain said on Monday that the sanctions were âintended to bring down the Putin regime.â Mr. Johnsonâs office quickly corrected the statement, saying that it did not reflect his governmentâs view and that the goal of the measures was to stop Russiaâs assault on Ukraine.
A couple of days ago, Matt Levine reported no one wanted Russian assets. Thatâs changed. Bottom feeders are hoovering them upâ¦.although perhaps not yet enough to offset the selling pressure. From Bloomberg:
As the U.S. and allies tighten sanctions on Russia and choke off investor demand for its assets, parts of Wall Street are jumping on the buying opportunity that itâs creating.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been purchasing beaten-down company bonds tied to Russia in recent days, as hedge funds that specialize in buying cheap credit look to load up on the assets, according to people with knowledge of the private transactions.
Bloomberg piously notes that trading Russian assets isnât banned.
Blackrock is also increasing some Russian holdings. From Sharecast:
Private equity giant Blackrock has taken a punt on beleaguered Russian gold miner Polymetal, doubling its stake to just over 10% even as the stock takes a battering from sanctions imposed against Moscow.
Note here Blackrock is buying this stake when the giant Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is selling.
"This legislation appears to criminalise the process of independent journalism. It leaves us no other option than to temporarily suspend the work of all BBC News journalists"
From someone in Belaya (south of Kyiv)...apparently, there have been a few attempts to ambush Zelensky today. I hope he has a plan...because most of Vlad's include him right now.
Edit: when I say someone.... a friend's cousin via a phone call within the past hour.
if anyone had any question that putin was remotely trustworthy or had any concern for innocent human life
the last week of his "special military operation" should remove all doubt
the level of evil he has reached is stunning
Considering the general instability all around and increasing pressure on the Russian economy and its main beneficiaries, The implication is enough to send chills. Strategic scenarios are being written and rewritten constantly...
after getting a good look at this despot the deliberate killing, crushing and destroying
i'm seeing normally some pretty smart folks that have been solidly anti-war rethinking that position
putin is more than willing to sacrifice innocent ukainians and even his own innocent fellow russians to keep his dictatorship
i wouldn't be surprised if someone close to him eventually puts a stop to his madness
