In the immediate future, Russia is dangerous beyond compare.  Putin is a rabid dog.  But like all rabid dogs the danger that he represents, if it is not realized in the near future, has a relatively short shelf life.  Russia is on a course to exhaust itself in almost every way possible and, once exhausted, will not be able to sustain the danger that it threatens today.

The real danger to the world order is China.  Perhaps you have forgotten that during the Olympics, we saw pictures of the Xi Jin Ping alone, watching the ceremonies.  And juxtaposed with the view of Xi was a view of Putin alone, watching the ceremonies.  No other foreign leaders were shown.  Just Xi and Putin, symbolic of the lengths that these two leaders are willing to go to gain advantages for their respective countries.  Make no mistake.  There is no love lost between the Russians and the Chinese.  And make no mistake.  The Chinese will gain more from the Russians than the Russians will gain from the Chinese.  A lot more.

At the moment, while the world watches the fighting in Ukraine, the Chinese are quietly tightening their grip on Asia and South America and Africa.  The Russians are fielding obsolete weapons system (and already paying the price), while the Chinese are continuing to make their military the most modern, most advanced in the World.  Simply put, the more Putin commands the world's attention and resources, the stronger the Chinese become.  

When the dust settles from what is happening in the Ukraine—no matter who wins—China is going to emerge as a military power strong enough to take on the rest of the World, if it so desires.  Within a couple of years, Chinese advances in technology and science will put the Chinese military whole levels above the rest of the world.  While we divert resources and treasure to what is essentially a European crisis, China, instead of being forced to divert resources, will do just the opposite.  It will increase its expenditures, in an effort to accomplish its goal of winning its perceived war without going to war.  Sun Tzu is alive and well in the minds of Chinese strategists.  

While we run in circles, scream and shout, pontificate and exaggerate, natter on and on about this or that, China will simply confront us with a done deal.  War, even a nuclear war, simply won't be possible—Chinese technology and science will see to that.

This is Putin's real legacy: we are rapidly going past the tip-over point with China.  

Maybe we already have. 

Kyiv mayor: reports capital surrounded by Russian forces are false

 kcar wrote:
He's a genius (for Donnie) because by saying so, Donnie can suggest he A)recognizes intelligence, B) is a friend of the smart buy, C) is a better choice to handle him than others.  

U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the Security Council that
President Putin put Russia’s nuclear forces on alert although he faces
no nuclear threat from Ukraine. “He is under no threat from NATO, a
defense alliance that will not fight in Ukraine. We urge Russia to tone
down its dangerous rhetoric regarding nuclear weapons,” she said.

 kcar wrote:
I have no love for the Most Failed President Ever™ but I think it was likely a grudging admiration, like when someone outflanks you at chess and you appreciate the move. "Oh, that was smart."

That said, anyone in the position he had/lost should have kept his damned mouth shut, since he's basically going to be misinterpreted and have it used against him. That's the kind of ham-handedness you'd expect from someone like him. All dull tools, including his brain.

 kurtster wrote:


But Kurt, Der Drumpf says Putin is a genius!



https://www.washingtonpost.com...

Trump has long spoken admiringly of Putin, and, this past week, he complimented the Russian leader during a conservative talk radio interview, saying it was “smart” to send “the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen” to the Ukraine border.

“This is genius,” Trump said in that interview. “Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful. … He used the word ‘independent’ and ‘we’re going to go out and we’re going to go in and we’re going to help keep peace.’ You’ve got to say that’s pretty savvy.”

Trump defended labeling Putin as “smart” during his Saturday night speech.

Things are beyond pathetic.  Snopes says "unproven" so don't bother for those who want to throw that at me.  I put nothing past Putin at this point.

Russia deploys mobile crematoriums to follow its troops into battle.

I also heard last night that this excursion is costing Putin $2 billion per day and if it takes longer than 10 days, he has exhausted his allocated money for this.  He is then in a corner of his own making domestically if this goes south on him.  Hope he isn't one of those if I can't have it then I'll make sure that nobody has anything kinda guy and thinks about pushing the button ...

On the cancer thing, who knows.  About a year ago I heard he has Parkinson's.  It's all speculation.

At the very least his rant about denazifying Ukraine is pretty strange since their Prez is Jewish.  Very little is making sense except that we are dealing with crazy and crazy don't follow any rules.

Stay safe and get some cash on hand in case of a cyber attack.

My 2¢

Personally, I think it is time to get serious about supplying the Ukraine military, just as the allies supplied Russia in WWII. 

Unbelievable that this is happening all over again.

Though it is very hard to know what to do.

The most favourable interpretation of Putin's strategy is that he didn't think he would meet such resistance from the west because they need his oil and assumed that once he had reoccupied Ukraine the dust would  slowly settle and sooner or later trade would  be restored. Russian sphere of influence and all that.

Unfortunately, I think this interpretation is increasingly unlikely. 

It appears to me more likely that Putin is in fact trying to engineer a crisis where he can take on NATO head-to-head or at least try out his fancy new Zircon supersonic missiles. Maybe this was the little technological edge that has given him the confidence to take the gamble.

The stated aim of simply bringing Ukraine back into the fold is no longer credible. He obviously gives a shit about the Ukrainian people. Moreover, reabsorbing Ukraine into his definition of Russia brings him hard up against a NATO border anyway. On top of that he has just sold out his entire foreign trade business with the west for the sake of what? national pride? Staying in power domestically? Securing the Crimea? Very, very high stakes game if he's only pursuing those objectives.  And even if he manages to take some semblance of control in Ukraine he is going to be facing a protracted guerilla war that will make Afghanistan look like a picnic.

If this second pessimistic interpretation is the case, what are the alternative responses?  
1. sit back, sacrifice our ideals, watch the Ukrainians go to the wall and wait months/years for the sanctions to bite and Putin finally falls due to domestic dissatisfaction?
2. Or do we arm Ukraine now and give them a chance to overcome the superior numbers of the Russian army to save their homeland?

What scares me most is that he has already created a scenario for Russia that will lead to local/domestic catastrophe, whatever way this plays out. And he obviously doesn't care a shit about his own people.  

Or he seriously thinks he can win this and take over everything  - or kill all of us trying. It certainly feels like here is a man playing for broke.

V. Klitschko says Kyiv is encircled and effectively under siege with no outside access to food or medicine. 

 Steely_D wrote: 
getting lost in all the cross-references there, but I think the Ukrainian foreign minister called it correctly that the high alert for the nuclear option is most probably a negotiating strategy and not the insane intention of someone about to die.  Occams razor and all that.

i agree they should however the challenge would be their family/loved ones left behind

 Red_Dragon wrote: 

Kuleba, responding to questions about nuclear attacks, said that if Ukraine was attacked with nuclear weapons it would be “a catastrophe,” but said it would not break the Ukrainian spirit. He said Putin’s order to put nuclear deterrence on high alert was a strategy to raise the stakes ahead of the talks.

Zelensky: Ukraine to meet with Russia for peace talks

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

i read something similar (obviously hard to verify)
hope those around him realize the damage he has done and the potential horrific scenario he could initiate
not sure how any sane person could support him or go along with launching a nuclear attack
also saw where it looks like he is advancing thermobaric weapons into the ukraine
if true this would be an unbelievably bad sign
peace

 Red_Dragon wrote: 
Funny thing about nuclear weapons is that they are so totally destructive they make everything absurd. So all you can do is carry on acting normally as though they don't exist.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:


Yeah, we're about 12km from a giant air force base, so...

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
Interesting.

 Red_Dragon wrote: 
Rumour alert:  a government official I know said that the word in German intelligence is that Putin has cancer.  

If true, it looks like the guy wants to go out with a bang and take as many with him as he can. Would explain the absolute irrationality of his recent actions. One can only hope his inner coterie don't play along. News of the poor morale of the Russian army and their failure to make any big wins in Ukraine suggest to me that he is becoming increasingly isolated, even at home. Losing the war in Ukraine must surely signal his political end.

Funnily enough I don't feel scared by the nuclear threat (though we would be among the first hit probably, being close to a US base). We are truly watching the dying throes of a political dinosaur. The thing to do now is minimise the collateral damage.

Putin puts Russia’s nuclear forces on alert, cites sanctions

 Ivanhoe wrote:
CAUTION!
Phishing Threat Alert from that URL