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2020 Elections - Steely_D - Oct 21, 2020 - 10:46pm
 
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RP App in Android Auto: - jwaldrep - Oct 16, 2020 - 9:30am
 
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the Todd Rundgren topic - Steely_D - Oct 15, 2020 - 7:30pm
 
Photos you have taken of your walks or hikes. - Antigone - Oct 15, 2020 - 2:53pm
 
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Index » Radio Paradise/General » General Discussion » COVID-19 Page: 1, 2, 3 ... 154, 155, 156  Next
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Lazy8

Lazy8 Avatar

Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 - 8:27pm

This is long but it's very good.

R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Oct 21, 2020 - 12:21pm


westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 - 10:19am



 R_P wrote:
 .......
 
Coronavirus: US pandemic death toll likely 50 percent higher than reported
Contributing to the United States' high death toll has been an unusually high mortality rate - more people as a percentage of the population dying of COVID-19 than in other countries with huge outbreaks.

A separate study, also published in JAMA, wanted to find out if that was because the US had an "early surge of cases prior to improvements in prevention and patient management" or  simply had a "poor long-term response".

The University of Pennsylvania researchers found even after the early peak, the US' mortality rate from COVID-19 has remained higher than other OECD countries with outbreaks, such as Italy.
All hail Mammon!
 
Thanks R_P.  Interesting piece.  Pasted bit:

The study found an increase in deaths from dementia and heart disease that followed the same pattern as deaths from the coronavirus. All-cause mortality increased as the virus' second wave began in the US, which the data showed followed early reopenings - lives saved in reduced car accidents, for example, were vastly outnumbered.


Are health outcomes the driver behind high US mortality rates?   All rich western countries have been affected by obesity, sitting epidemic.   The US is the only where middle aged white men have experienced a decrease in life expectancy.

black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 - 10:15am



 westslope wrote:


 rgio wrote:


.......

Suicides, overdoses, heart attacks or other issues where people either can't get or delay medical attention. If you want to blame COVID for someone drinking too much and dying, or overdosing out of boredom and/or loniliness, then maybe the deaths are under-counted....but it's a slippery slope and will result in an overstatement of the danger from contracting the virus.

Testing and morbidity comparisons need to be considered carefully.  An increase in the testing should lead to lower morbidity rates for COVID, but it wouldn't impact the excess mortality calculations.

 

Let me be clear.  I am not looking for "blame".   This is an exercise in improved tea-leaf reading in an attempt to arrive at a better understanding.

The virus will cause direct and indirect effects.  Some of the more indirect social effects such as increased substance abuse, increased domestic violence, reduced exercise levels and as a result declines in overall health outcomes do not strike me as a major concern in regards to simply understanding the information that is being generated. 

There appears to be a significant increase in daily C-19 cases while  C-19 deaths are staying relatively low.  

This could be simply the result of medical professionals acquiring through 'learning by doing' more knowledge that allows them to take better care of C-19 patients.  

The excess mortality numbers are estimated by calculating trailing averages so it might take a few years for them to revert to the mean.  

The political and economic implications of this discussion could be interesting.   One possibility is that many voting Americans might overestimate the C-19 deaths due to the Trump administration's management of the pandemic.  

New cases are soaring in Canada but so far Canadian political leaders are not being blamed for Canada's second wave.  That may be due to Canadian political leaders standing strongly behind public health professionals.
 

anecdotal... my kids in college have seen more cases, but most are no worse than the sniffles....compared to last spring when more kids were getting very sick. 
westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 - 10:12am



 rgio wrote:


.......

Suicides, overdoses, heart attacks or other issues where people either can't get or delay medical attention. If you want to blame COVID for someone drinking too much and dying, or overdosing out of boredom and/or loniliness, then maybe the deaths are under-counted....but it's a slippery slope and will result in an overstatement of the danger from contracting the virus.

Testing and morbidity comparisons need to be considered carefully.  An increase in the testing should lead to lower morbidity rates for COVID, but it wouldn't impact the excess mortality calculations.

 

Let me be clear.  I am not looking for "blame".   This is an exercise in improved tea-leaf reading in an attempt to arrive at a better understanding.

The virus will cause direct and indirect effects.  Some of the more indirect social effects such as increased substance abuse, increased domestic violence, reduced exercise levels and as a result declines in overall health outcomes do not strike me as a major concern in regards to simply understanding the information that is being generated. 

There appears to be a significant increase in daily C-19 cases while  C-19 deaths are staying relatively low.  

This could be simply the result of medical professionals acquiring through 'learning by doing' more knowledge that allows them to take better care of C-19 patients.  

The excess mortality numbers are estimated by calculating trailing averages so it might take a few years for them to revert to the mean.  

The political and economic implications of this discussion could be interesting.   One possibility is that many voting Americans might overestimate the C-19 deaths due to the Trump administration's management of the pandemic.  

New cases are soaring in Canada but so far Canadian political leaders are not being blamed for Canada's second wave.  That may be due to Canadian political leaders standing strongly behind public health professionals.
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Oct 21, 2020 - 9:55am

 westslope wrote:
Question.

The excess mortality information suggests that COVID-19 caused deaths are being under counted.

Now as many countries experience a second wave of similar surge in C-19 virus cases, how much of that is actually due to an increase in the number of cases and how much is due to 'better measurement' that is available through more testing?

One way of viewing the increase in cases is that it is actually a good thing; it is simply an indicator of the health system better managing the pandemic.  

 
Coronavirus: US pandemic death toll likely 50 percent higher than reported
Contributing to the United States' high death toll has been an unusually high mortality rate - more people as a percentage of the population dying of COVID-19 than in other countries with huge outbreaks.

A separate study, also published in JAMA, wanted to find out if that was because the US had an "early surge of cases prior to improvements in prevention and patient management" or  simply had a "poor long-term response".

The University of Pennsylvania researchers found even after the early peak, the US' mortality rate from COVID-19 has remained higher than other OECD countries with outbreaks, such as Italy.
All hail Mammon!
2and4



Posted: Oct 21, 2020 - 9:54am



 black321 wrote:

Oxford University scientists develop ‘extremely rapid’ 5-minute COVID-19 test


could be great news for airlines, events...production possible for mid-21, which seems to imply this virus is going to be around for awhile.
 
I suspect that COVID-19 will always be around and become yet another malady that we will have to manage ala various flus, HIV, chicken pox, etc. Vaccines and cures may be developed but the virus itself ain't going anywhere. 

rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 - 9:12am



 westslope wrote:
Question.

The excess mortality information suggests that COVID-19 caused deaths are being under counted.


Now as many countries experience a second wave of similar surge in C-19 virus cases, how much of that is actually due to an increase in the number of cases and how much is due to 'better measurement' that is available through more testing?

One way of viewing the increase in cases is that it is actually a good thing; it is simply an indicator of the health system better managing the pandemic.  

 
Not necessarily.  It depends on how you determine "cause"

It's possible COVID is under-reported, but there is always a bit of chicken and egg in determining whether it was specifically COVID or something else.  The under-reporting based on excess mortaility suggests a significant increase in deaths caused indirectly by the pandemic.

Suicides, overdoses, heart attacks or other issues where people either can't get or delay medical attention. If you want to blame COVID for someone drinking too much and dying, or overdosing out of boredom and/or loniliness, then maybe the deaths are under-counted....but it's a slippery slope and will result in an overstatement of the danger from contracting the virus.

Testing and morbidity comparisons need to be considered carefully.  An increase in the testing should lead to lower morbidity rates for COVID, but it wouldn't impact the excess mortality calculations.

westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 - 8:30am

Question.

The excess mortality information suggests that COVID-19 caused deaths are being under counted.

Now as many countries experience a second wave of similar surge in C-19 virus cases, how much of that is actually due to an increase in the number of cases and how much is due to 'better measurement' that is available through more testing?

One way of viewing the increase in cases is that it is actually a good thing; it is simply an indicator of the health system better managing the pandemic.  

R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Oct 20, 2020 - 10:04pm

How the F.D.A. Stood Up to the President
Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar



Posted: Oct 20, 2020 - 2:29pm


westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Oct 20, 2020 - 12:46pm



 rgio wrote:


........
You're drawing direct correlations that are pure theory.  That list of people is connected to the President or one of his "projects"

Missing from that list are any Fortune class or large Pharma....those on the list have nothing to do with the trillions Trump is handing out in search of a miracle.  

My theoretical....the majority of people on that list support Trump in the hopes of keeping tax rates down while the US government prints money and generates trillions in debt.  They keep their money, and everyone else pays the tab later.  COVID has nothing to do with the math.  To Scott's point, if it was your money, would you wear a mask for an extra 6 months if you could save $3-$5 Trillion on vaccines many won't take anyway while waiting to see how others do?
 

Pure theory?     Not sure I understand.  In order to be taxed, you have to make money.  If demand for US products and services both domestically and externally plummets and stays depressed for longer, it is and will be a lot harder to make money.

But if your suggesting that rich Americans with special interests are backing Trump, that I understand.  That makes sense.  I can readily imagine big Pharma supporting Trump's exceptional views on health.  

Here is an example of odd behaviour.  Folks in the oil & gas industry who support Trump.    What do they want?   More supply and tighter margins?   Below risk-adjusted market rates of return to capital?  

No restrictions on natural gas flaring so oil production can sky rocket up and depress prices?   Strikes me as myopic and self-loathing.

miamizsun

miamizsun Avatar

Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 20, 2020 - 11:05am

 rgio wrote:
I generally agree with you, and I'm honestly not trying to pick a fight or belabor the point, but the idea that "it's gonna spread regardless" is misleading.  Yes, it will continue to spread because we need to interact, get food, go to work.  What is known at this point is that masks and distance reduce the spread, and what is also known is that about 1/3rd of the country has decided to follow the advice of a politician over medicine.  In the states where the politician is popular, the spread is higher.  Where the medical community is followed, things are generally better (not good...but better).  

As for gleaning from the chart you posted, all of Scott's observations are personal knowledge.  The only thing the chart tells you is where people have died.  It is no better than a list of numbers, where visualizations that show multiple attributes (like political party and time with normalized populations) greatly enhance the reader's ability to "see" what's happening with the virus.  

I didn't introduce politics into the discussion, our leadership did.  I don't think it's unreasonable to assess performance and identify what's working and what's not, I think it's the best way for all of us to stay safe.  
 

i know that so no worries  {#Good-vibes}

it's a message board and this is like a form of therapy for me

thinking out loud between stuff at work

peace 
rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 20, 2020 - 10:50am



 westslope wrote:


 ScottFromWyoming wrote:
........

So everyone's going to get it and 5% will have serious symptoms, that's 16 million Americans. Maybe it's not the herd culler some people have been rooting for but I think it's worth having a leader encourage everyone to do the free things: masks, handwashing, and maybe lay low for a bit, as opposed to what he actually did, which maybe didn't directly lead to the first 3trillion in alms for corporations but it will sure be the reason for the next 2 trillion.
 
Curious.  How are donations from corporations to the Trump campaign doing?    American corporations have a vested interest in the US controlling the novel corona virus earlier than later.   At least according to the way despicable pinheads such as economists view this crisis.

Trump  and his supporters have clearly sabotaged early economic recovery.   Yet corporate donors continue to contribute (see below).  

So what is going on here?  Are many controlling owners of American corporations 'exceptional' in the same way that many of us on the outside view most American voters as 'exceptional'?    Can one a) become rich or b) hold on to wealth by being righteous and anti-scientific?    How does this message of "Be patriotic, die for your president, die for your country." resonate with rich Americans?    

Top Donors to Trump 2020 Campaign

The latest list of PACs and individuals who have donated to them.

 
You're drawing direct correlations that are pure theory.  That list of people is connected to the President or one of his "projects"

Missing from that list are any Fortune class or large Pharma....those on the list have nothing to do with the trillions Trump is handing out in search of a miracle.  

My theoretical....the majority of people on that list support Trump in the hopes of keeping tax rates down while the US government prints money and generates trillions in debt.  They keep their money, and everyone else pays the tab later.  COVID has nothing to do with the math.  To Scott's point, if it was your money, would you wear a mask for an extra 6 months if you could save $3-$5 Trillion on vaccines many won't take anyway while waiting to see how others do?
westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Oct 20, 2020 - 10:29am



 ScottFromWyoming wrote:
........

So everyone's going to get it and 5% will have serious symptoms, that's 16 million Americans. Maybe it's not the herd culler some people have been rooting for but I think it's worth having a leader encourage everyone to do the free things: masks, handwashing, and maybe lay low for a bit, as opposed to what he actually did, which maybe didn't directly lead to the first 3trillion in alms for corporations but it will sure be the reason for the next 2 trillion.
 
Curious.  How are donations from corporations to the Trump campaign doing?    American corporations have a vested interest in the US controlling the novel corona virus earlier than later.   At least according to the way despicable pinheads such as economists view this crisis.

Trump  and his supporters have clearly sabotaged early economic recovery.   Yet corporate donors continue to contribute (see below).  

So what is going on here?  Are many controlling owners of American corporations 'exceptional' in the same way that many of us on the outside view most American voters as 'exceptional'?    Can one a) become rich or b) hold on to wealth by being righteous and anti-scientific?    How does this message of "Be patriotic, die for your president, die for your country." resonate with rich Americans?    

Top Donors to Trump 2020 Campaign

The latest list of PACs and individuals who have donated to them.

miamizsun

miamizsun Avatar

Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 20, 2020 - 9:15am

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 miamizsun wrote:


good point

all we know or have information on are those people that we have tested

i think it's estimated that the vast majority of people will little or no symptoms

so it might make somewhat difficult to get an accurate picture on how many have been infected

there are different estimates, i saw a breakdown something like this:

40% no symptoms
40% mild symptoms
15% moderate symptoms
5% serious symptoms

i'm certain that these numbers will change as we learn more 

will we ever know with any accuracy? doubt it, but hopefully we'll get close
 

So everyone's going to get it and 5% will have serious symptoms, that's 16 million Americans. Maybe it's not the herd culler some people have been rooting for but I think it's worth having a leader encourage everyone to do the free things: masks, handwashing, and maybe lay low for a bit, as opposed to what he actually did, which maybe didn't directly lead to the first 3trillion in alms for corporations but it will sure be the reason for the next 2 trillion.
 

i'm not familiar with anyone rooting for herd culling

but yeah, people shouldn't emulate trump 

if he or any other politician tells you what time it is you should still check your watch

=

also, i don't know how in the hell our leaders can't separate financial stimulus to individuals from all the special interests holding this up

if you're going to do it, and i'm pretty sure that they are, just get it done
Steely_D

Steely_D Avatar

Location: Biscayne Bay
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 20, 2020 - 8:48am

And, if this really is a virus from China, but hundreds of thousands of Americans have died - has he really done that good a job of protecting the country from foreign invaders?
ScottFromWyoming

ScottFromWyoming Avatar

Location: Powell
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 20, 2020 - 8:45am



 miamizsun wrote:


good point

all we know or have information on are those people that we have tested

i think it's estimated that the vast majority of people will little or no symptoms

so it might make somewhat difficult to get an accurate picture on how many have been infected

there are different estimates, i saw a breakdown something like this:

40% no symptoms
40% mild symptoms
15% moderate symptoms
5% serious symptoms

i'm certain that these numbers will change as we learn more 

will we ever know with any accuracy? doubt it, but hopefully we'll get close
 

So everyone's going to get it and 5% will have serious symptoms, that's 16 million Americans. Maybe it's not the herd culler some people have been rooting for but I think it's worth having a leader encourage everyone to do the free things: masks, handwashing, and maybe lay low for a bit, as opposed to what he actually did, which maybe didn't directly lead to the first 3trillion in alms for corporations but it will sure be the reason for the next 2 trillion.
miamizsun

miamizsun Avatar

Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 20, 2020 - 8:39am

rgio wrote:
I generally agree with you, and I'm honestly not trying to pick a fight or belabor the point, but the idea that "it's gonna spread regardless" is misleading.  Yes, it will continue to spread because we need to interact, get food, go to work.  What is known at this point is that masks and distance reduce the spread, and what is also known is that about 1/3rd of the country has decided to follow the advice of a politician over medicine.  In the states where the politician is popular, the spread is higher.  Where the medical community is followed, things are generally better (not good...but better).  

As for gleaning from the chart you posted, all of Scott's observations are personal knowledge.  The only thing the chart tells you is where people have died.  It is no better than a list of numbers, where visualizations that show multiple attributes (like political party and time with normalized populations) greatly enhance the reader's ability to "see" what's happening with the virus.  

I didn't introduce politics into the discussion, our leadership did.  I don't think it's unreasonable to assess performance and identify what's working and what's not, I think it's the best way for all of us to stay safe.  

 
i live in a very blue area and i have noticed that more and more people are not masking and sloppy masking

nose exposed or just keeping one down over the chin/neck 

example with restaurants: pull it up just to get in the door and immediately drop it down again after seated

i think they're just tired or fatigued

of course there quite a few diehards and i'd put myself in this category

my age alone puts me in a higher risk band

overall it looks like we have flattened the curve regarding overwhelming the medical facilities

but i think that will vary with geography
miamizsun

miamizsun Avatar

Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 20, 2020 - 8:17am

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:
I must be missing some math, then, because herd immunity implies a saturation level at which point the virus finds few new hosts, but their per capita infections since this began is among the lowest in the country, after NH, Maine, Vermont. Wyoming used to be in that group due simply to isolation and sparse population but we're now somehow in the middle of the pack, and for a few weeks in Sept/Oct we led the nation with something around 1.4 persons infected by every positive. We now have 3x as many cases per capita than New York does. If NY has achieved some level of herd immunity, Wyoming should be absolutely impervious to further spread. But here we are.
 

good point

all we know or have information on are those people that we have tested

i think it's estimated that the vast majority of people will have little or no symptoms

so it might make somewhat difficult to get an accurate picture on how many have been infected

there are different estimates, i saw a breakdown something like this:

40% no symptoms
40% mild symptoms
15% moderate symptoms
5% serious symptoms

i'm certain that these numbers will change as we learn more 

will we ever know with any accuracy? doubt it, but hopefully we'll get close
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