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Index »
Radio Paradise/General »
General Discussion »
Trump
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Page: Previous 1, 2, 3 ... 765, 766, 767 ... 1129, 1130, 1131 Next |
Steely_D
Location: Biscayne Bay Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 18, 2018 - 3:18pm |
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black321 wrote:wouldnt it be nice if this topic fell of the RAFT, at least for a few weeks?
I think folks have been unsuccessful in getting him to stop being controversial. For instance: White House slams Congress over possible shutdown
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black321
Location: An earth without maps Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 18, 2018 - 2:48pm |
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wouldnt it be nice if this topic fell of the RAFT, at least for a few weeks?
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hayduke2
Location: Southampton, NY Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 18, 2018 - 2:35pm |
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ojibwe
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Posted:
Jan 18, 2018 - 10:29am |
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islander wrote:I understand your concern, but if we destroy our system because we don't like the outcome, then what are we left with? Mueller will run his course (probably), but it will take time. Look at how long it normally takes: It is rare that it wraps up within a single term of president. As to losing our standing in the world. Well, sorry to tell you but that horse is out of the barn, escaped the pasture, jumped the stream and was last seen headed over the hills. It all started the day he got the nomination. I notice one name conspicuously absent from that list. It would belong on the right side.
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Steely_D
Location: Biscayne Bay Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 18, 2018 - 9:55am |
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marko86 wrote:... We should start a betting pool now that football is winding down. This idea I like.
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cc_rider
Location: Bastrop Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 18, 2018 - 7:48am |
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haresfur wrote: The downside of a multi-party system is that the minor party ends up with inordinate power. Say you have three parties with two large ones and one small far right one. A large one will make a deal with the small one yanking the policies way over in their direction, even though far more people wanted results in the other direction. The large parties would rather fight each other because that's where the real threat to control is. Meanwhile the small party needs to be the disrupter because that's where their power is.
Australia's government is a coalition of Liberal and National parties. They actually have a formal agreement and campaign together so it's more like one party, but it gives the Nationals a lot of power. Probably the worst for the downside of a multiparty system is Israel. You would think that having lots of parties would balance things out but actually it makes for an incentive to splinter.
Maybe it's different in the US system than in a parliamentary one, but if I recall the biggest effect of a small party there is when one of the big ones grabs enough of their policies to keep them small. I think that is what happened with Eugene Debs. And the Libertarians for that matter.
I think the optimum is probably three or four parties but it really depends on how crazy they are.
Very true. If one of those parties actively denounced scientists, economists, journalists, and any other fact-based organization, we would really be in trouble. c.
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miamizsun
Location: (3283.1 Miles SE of RP) Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 18, 2018 - 7:14am |
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islander wrote: I'll take Dems in the House, Repubs in the Senate. Party before country (both). Crazy in the White House through 2020. 0% chance of resignation. I'd like to hold off on my bets for the outcome of 2020 until I see the contenders, but I'm not really seeing much rational from the opposition so far, so Dual Citizenship for the Islanders for the win. Where do I send my check?
send one dollar to: red dragon or bust p.o. box 66 okc, ok 73102
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Red_Dragon
Location: Dumbf*ckistan
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Posted:
Jan 18, 2018 - 7:05am |
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islander
Location: Seattle Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 18, 2018 - 7:02am |
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marko86 wrote:Here is my take. I have little doubt that the Mueller investigation will have a rock solid case for collusion, obstruction, money laundering and probably a dozen more things. It likely won't be till very late this year or into 1st quarter next year. Meanwhile house will flip. I give senate about a 60% chance to flip, but even if not, the overwhelming evidence will convince a few Republicans to pick country over party (well, I hope so, or they will do so to save what is left of their party). Meanwhile, Trump will start pardoning, just before the charges get to him. He will then resign, Pence will pardon him as he walks out the door. How the legal aspects will play out is hard to call. I know there is some strategy to use state courts to circumvent pardons, but for a large part they will get away with it. That's how I am calling it now. We should start a betting pool now that football is winding down.
I'll take Dems in the House, Repubs in the Senate. Party before country (both). Crazy in the White House through 2020. 0% chance of resignation. I'd like to hold off on my bets for the outcome of 2020 until I see the contenders, but I'm not really seeing much rational from the opposition so far, so Dual Citizenship for the Islanders for the win. Where do I send my check?
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marko86
Location: North TX Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 18, 2018 - 5:41am |
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Here is my take. I have little doubt that the Mueller investigation will have a rock solid case for collusion, obstruction, money laundering and probably a dozen more things. It likely won't be till very late this year or into 1st quarter next year. Meanwhile house will flip. I give senate about a 60% chance to flip, but even if not, the overwhelming evidence will convince a few Republicans to pick country over party (well, I hope so, or they will do so to save what is left of their party). Meanwhile, Trump will start pardoning, just before the charges get to him. He will then resign, Pence will pardon him as he walks out the door. How the legal aspects will play out is hard to call. I know there is some strategy to use state courts to circumvent pardons, but for a large part they will get away with it. That's how I am calling it now. We should start a betting pool now that football is winding down.
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miamizsun
Location: (3283.1 Miles SE of RP) Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 18, 2018 - 5:37am |
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VV wrote: So, by extension, it sounds like you are saying that the Mueller investigation is just an empty exercise because even impeachable results will likely not result in impeachment. I stil can’t go along with that train of thought. If there are impeachable offenses then they should be surfaced and Trump should have to answer for them. The best case scenario is that impeachment proceedings (against all odds) are initiated. If not, his already poor reputation takes a further hit and it makes it even harder for him to get reelected. I guess I‘m delusional, but I still hold onto some shred of hope that there is a limit to what people will tolerate (including some of his “base”). There is a reason that his approval rating is the lowest of any president in their first term and some of it surely has to do with the investigation. Anything that can possibly negatively influence his reelection... has my full support. it's important for me when looking at something like this to try and weed out emotion and bias as much as possible (esp mine) that being said, i make an effort to look for people who know what they're talking about from a legal stand point usually it's turley, dershowitz and napolitiano (i'd watch/listen to them all on this subject) dershowitz for instance will tell you his political bias but then does a pretty fair job of divorcing that from the legal reality they've been pretty vocal about how sloppy mueller has been and about the great dangers of using vague laws as a political weapon if you have the time take a look at what those guys are saying regards
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islander
Location: Seattle Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 17, 2018 - 7:22pm |
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VV wrote: So, by extension, it sounds like you are saying that the Mueller investigation is just an empty exercise because even impeachable results will likely not result in impeachment. I stil can’t go along with that train of thought. If there are impeachable offenses then they should be surfaced and Trump should have to answer for them. The best case scenario is that impeachment proceedings (against all odds) are initiated. If not, his already poor reputation takes a further hit and it makes it even harder for him to get reelected. I guess I‘m delusional, but I still hold onto some shred of hope that there is a limit to what people will tolerate (including some of his “base”). There is a reason that his approval rating is the lowest of any president in their first term and some of it surely has to do with the investigation. Anything that can possibly negatively influence his reelection... has my full support.
We're (sort of) on the same side here. I'm with you on everything you've said about trump's behaviors, policies, appointments, etc. I just don't see a clean way out of it. I'm apparently more pessimistic about his followers. Those in the unshakable 30% are lost. They didn't bail out before the election, so they are all in now. When they rationalized all the shit early on, it became impossible for them to turn on him later. These people are all in and are not going to believe even a very strong case from Mueller. That doesn't mean I think it's pointless. To the contrary, follow the evidence and when he gets enough, bring the charges. But realize that the current Congress is not going to file impeachment - there is no evidence that would get them there. Maybe if congress flips to the dems, but even then there will be a shitstorm of epic proportions thrown up to block any action. And I just don't buy the blue wave BS for the senate. Maybe I'm wrong, but there are 26 dem seats up, and only 8 repubs. And many of those dem seats will be a battle. It's early and trump is strikingly unpopular, but as of now, I just don't see it. And if the senate stays republican, there will be no impeachment. So he'll have the same shame that Clinton has, how's that tarnish holding on him? I'm just settling in. I don't see any way he gets ousted. So prepare for more of this. If you let it eat you up, he wins. Mobilize, keep people informed. But realize that it's not impossible for 7 more years. Let that fuel the fire to call for good candidates in 2020. He can be taken down, but not by Joe Biden.
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VV
Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 17, 2018 - 7:05pm |
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islander wrote: I just don't see a lot of options for getting rid of him. Impeachment is a long way away, and assumes the Democrats make some amazing gains in 2018 (which even with Trump 'helping' them out is a hard slog due to the math). Mueller can't move without rock solid evidence *and* a cooperative legislature, and those aren't sure things. So in the end you have 2020 as your next real chance to get rid of him unless you pull something that is against the rules of the system as it is structured now. And for whatever you want to say about him, he's not a quitter and he does know how to motivate a certain segment of the populace, so I think he's even odds or better to win 2020 as of today.
On when exactly our standing floundered, it's hard to say. I have a cousin in Luxembourg who refused to visit when Bush was pres. He did make a trip during Obama, but was still dismayed at our military adventrurism. I am looking forward to the day when we can get over the need to be "the best" and just be "our best". A few of the Europeans seem to have gotten around to this, but it seems to take 50-100 years after your peak of power. I still think it was somewhere around the New Hampshire primary that the rest of the world started really giving us the side eye more than normal.
So, by extension, it sounds like you are saying that the Mueller investigation is just an empty exercise because even impeachable results will likely not result in impeachment. I stil can’t go along with that train of thought. If there are impeachable offenses then they should be surfaced and Trump should have to answer for them. The best case scenario is that impeachment proceedings (against all odds) are initiated. If not, his already poor reputation takes a further hit and it makes it even harder for him to get reelected. I guess I‘m delusional, but I still hold onto some shred of hope that there is a limit to what people will tolerate (including some of his “base”). There is a reason that his approval rating is the lowest of any president in their first term and some of it surely has to do with the investigation. Anything that can possibly negatively influence his reelection... has my full support.
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maryte
Location: Blinding You With Library Science! Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 17, 2018 - 4:49pm |
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Lazy8 wrote: maryte wrote:Indeed - but part of the problem as I see it (YMMV) is that far too many people in this country think that we already are "the best." American Exceptionalism as a primary component of what passes for patriotism these days is what has contributed to the problems this country pretends it doesn't have. We're number one! That's why we have to be made great again. We also have too many people certain we are suffering from problems we don't actually have. Like...an inadequate military, or a crime wave, or Sharia law breaking out, or Toxins! In our food! The Venn diagram overlaps a great deal between people crying wolf, actual wolves, and people raising money on Kickstarter for a Save the Wolves fund.
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Lazy8
Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 17, 2018 - 4:43pm |
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maryte wrote:Indeed - but part of the problem as I see it (YMMV) is that far too many people in this country think that we already are "the best." American Exceptionalism as a primary component of what passes for patriotism these days is what has contributed to the problems this country pretends it doesn't have. We're number one! That's why we have to be made great again. We also have too many people certain we are suffering from problems we don't actually have. Like...an inadequate military, or a crime wave, or Sharia law breaking out, or Toxins! In our food! The Venn diagram overlaps a great deal between people crying wolf, actual wolves, and people raising money on Kickstarter for a Save the Wolves fund.
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maryte
Location: Blinding You With Library Science! Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 17, 2018 - 4:05pm |
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islander wrote: I just don't see a lot of options for getting rid of him. Impeachment is a long way away, and assumes the Democrats make some amazing gains in 2018 (which even with Trump 'helping' them out is a hard slog due to the math). Mueller can't move without rock solid evidence *and* a cooperative legislature, and those aren't sure things. So in the end you have 2020 as your next real chance to get rid of him unless you pull something that is against the rules of the system as it is structured now. And for whatever you want to say about him, he's not a quitter and he does know how to motivate a certain segment of the populace, so I think he's even odds or better to win 2020 as of today.
On when exactly our standing floundered, it's hard to say. I have a cousin in Luxembourg who refused to visit when Bush was pres. He did make a trip during Obama, but was still dismayed at our military adventrurism. I am looking forward to the day when we can get over the need to be "the best" and just be "our best". A few of the Europeans seem to have gotten around to this, but it seems to take 50-100 years after your peak of power. I still think it was somewhere around the New Hampshire primary that the rest of the world started really giving us the side eye more than normal.
Indeed - but part of the problem as I see it (YMMV) is that far too many people in this country think that we already are "the best." American Exceptionalism as a primary component of what passes for patriotism these days is what has contributed to the problems this country pretends it doesn't have.
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islander
Location: Seattle Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 17, 2018 - 3:41pm |
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VV wrote: Not sure how you got "destroying the system" out of my post? I wasn't advocating any kind of destruction. I was only talking about the destruction the prez was doing. I just want Mueller to take his shot if he has one to take before any more damage is done. I believe I did essentially say that we did lost our world standing so saying "Sorry to tell you" doesn't make sense when I'm the one who brought it up. It didn't start when he got the nomination but when he was elected. You can nominate any number of knuckleheads but they don't mean spit until they are elected.
I just don't see a lot of options for getting rid of him. Impeachment is a long way away, and assumes the Democrats make some amazing gains in 2018 (which even with Trump 'helping' them out is a hard slog due to the math). Mueller can't move without rock solid evidence *and* a cooperative legislature, and those aren't sure things. So in the end you have 2020 as your next real chance to get rid of him unless you pull something that is against the rules of the system as it is structured now. And for whatever you want to say about him, he's not a quitter and he does know how to motivate a certain segment of the populace, so I think he's even odds or better to win 2020 as of today. On when exactly our standing floundered, it's hard to say. I have a cousin in Luxembourg who refused to visit when Bush was pres. He did make a trip during Obama, but was still dismayed at our military adventrurism. I am looking forward to the day when we can get over the need to be "the best" and just be "our best". A few of the Europeans seem to have gotten around to this, but it seems to take 50-100 years after your peak of power. I still think it was somewhere around the New Hampshire primary that the rest of the world started really giving us the side eye more than normal.
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haresfur
Location: The Golden Triangle Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 17, 2018 - 11:44am |
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islander wrote: If we had more parties and were forced to make coalition governments it might: a) give more times between reigns of terror cycles of control. 2) when forced to make compromises in forming coalitions, some form of forgiveness for previous wrongs may come about.
The downside of a multi-party system is that the minor party ends up with inordinate power. Say you have three parties with two large ones and one small far right one. A large one will make a deal with the small one yanking the policies way over in their direction, even though far more people wanted results in the other direction. The large parties would rather fight each other because that's where the real threat to control is. Meanwhile the small party needs to be the disrupter because that's where their power is. Australia's government is a coalition of Liberal and National parties. They actually have a formal agreement and campaign together so it's more like one party, but it gives the Nationals a lot of power. Probably the worst for the downside of a multiparty system is Israel. You would think that having lots of parties would balance things out but actually it makes for an incentive to splinter. Maybe it's different in the US system than in a parliamentary one, but if I recall the biggest effect of a small party there is when one of the big ones grabs enough of their policies to keep them small. I think that is what happened with Eugene Debs. And the Libertarians for that matter. I think the optimum is probably three or four parties but it really depends on how crazy they are.
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VV
Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 17, 2018 - 10:27am |
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ScottFromWyoming wrote: The soonest impeachment will happen is 2019, when and if the Democrats are in charge of both houses of congress, and a conviction requires 2/3 of the senate. That's a high bar and the next campaign season will be in full swing or nearly over by the time it's done. Time, money, energy and goodwill are better spent in finding great candidates for 2020.
I get that it's a long shot but I disagree that it is bad money spent. If Mueller finds sufficient evidence of collusion and brings charges then I still say damaging Trump ahead of 2020 is still reason enough to move forward with an impeachment even if it never happens. At best impeachment gains steam and he is removed or resigns before his first term is over... at worst... he is damaged and his chances of reelection become slim.
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VV
Gender:
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Posted:
Jan 17, 2018 - 10:03am |
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islander wrote:I understand your concern, but if we destroy our system because we don't like the outcome, then what are we left with? Mueller will run his course (probably), but it will take time. Look at how long it normally takes: It is rare that it wraps up within a single term of president. As to losing our standing in the world. Well, sorry to tell you but that horse is out of the barn, escaped the pasture, jumped the stream and was last seen headed over the hills. It all started the day he got the nomination. Not sure how you got "destroying the system" out of my post? I wasn't advocating any kind of destruction. I was only talking about the destruction the prez was doing. I just want Mueller to take his shot if he has one to take before any more damage is done. I believe I did essentially say that we did lost our world standing so saying "Sorry to tell you" doesn't make sense when I'm the one who brought it up. It didn't start when he got the nomination but when he was elected. You can nominate any number of knuckleheads but they don't mean spit until they are elected.
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